Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $82.35 |
| 5Y Range | 35.93 – 70.20 |
| 5Y Selected | 53.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.25% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.92% |
| 10Y Range | 41.53 – 75.92 |
| 10Y Selected | 58.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.25% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $11.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.63% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3613 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7783 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0209 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2388 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0154 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4766 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4987 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0563 |
| Safety Score | 0.1875 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.44% | 5.28% | 5.12% | 4.96% | 4.80% | 4.64% | 4.48% | 4.32% | 4.16% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,401.46 | 2,528.28 | 2,657.75 | 2,789.60 | 2,923.51 | 3,059.18 | 3,196.24 | 3,334.33 | 3,473.04 | 3,611.96 |
| EBITDA | 1,721.70 | 1,812.62 | 1,905.44 | 1,999.96 | 2,095.97 | 2,193.24 | 2,291.50 | 2,390.50 | 2,489.95 | 2,589.55 |
| D&A | -498.28 | -524.59 | -551.46 | -578.81 | -606.60 | -634.75 | -663.19 | -691.84 | -720.62 | -749.44 |
| EBIT | 1,223.42 | 1,288.03 | 1,353.99 | 1,421.15 | 1,489.38 | 1,558.49 | 1,628.32 | 1,698.66 | 1,769.33 | 1,840.10 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -233.57 | -245.90 | -258.49 | -271.31 | -284.34 | -297.53 | -310.86 | -324.29 | -337.79 | -351.30 |
| NOPAT | 989.85 | 1,042.13 | 1,095.49 | 1,149.84 | 1,205.04 | 1,260.96 | 1,317.45 | 1,374.37 | 1,431.54 | 1,488.81 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,062.11 | -1,118.20 | -1,175.46 | -1,233.77 | -1,293.00 | -1,353.00 | -1,413.62 | -1,474.69 | -1,536.04 | -1,597.48 |
| NWC Investment | 6.79 | 6.95 | 7.10 | 7.23 | 7.34 | 7.44 | 7.51 | 7.57 | 7.60 | 7.61 |
| (+) D&A | 498.28 | 524.59 | 551.46 | 578.81 | 606.60 | 634.75 | 663.19 | 691.84 | 720.62 | 749.44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 432.81 | 455.47 | 478.58 | 502.10 | 525.97 | 550.14 | 574.53 | 599.08 | 623.72 | 648.38 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 | 91,235,009.50 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/31/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 425.34 | 409.92 | 394.81 | 379.67 | 364.55 | 349.50 | 334.56 | 319.76 | 305.15 | 290.76 | Raw: 8,027.32 5,326.64 |
Raw: 9,895.45 4,248.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,300.93 | 7,822.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,808.56 | 2,808.56 |
| Equity Value | 4,492.37 | 5,013.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 91.24 | 91.24 |
| Fair Value | $49.24 | $54.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.25% | 81.25% |
| Buy Price | $9.23 | $10.30 |
| Current Price | $82.35 | $82.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.79% | -87.49% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 424.57 | 405.42 | 386.92 | 368.71 | 350.81 | 333.27 | 316.13 | 299.40 | 283.13 | 267.33 | Raw: 6,528.46 4,149.82 |
Raw: 8,047.76 3,162.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,086.25 | 6,597.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,808.56 | 2,808.56 |
| Equity Value | 3,277.70 | 3,789.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 91.24 | 91.24 |
| Fair Value | $35.93 | $41.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.25% | 81.25% |
| Buy Price | $6.74 | $7.79 |
| Current Price | $82.35 | $82.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.82% | -90.54% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 426.13 | 414.52 | 402.92 | 391.06 | 378.96 | 366.67 | 354.25 | 341.71 | 329.12 | 316.50 | Raw: 10,389.45 7,199.65 |
Raw: 12,807.29 6,012.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,213.23 | 9,734.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,808.56 | 2,808.56 |
| Equity Value | 6,404.67 | 6,926.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 91.24 | 91.24 |
| Fair Value | $70.20 | $75.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.25% | 81.25% |
| Buy Price | $13.16 | $14.23 |
| Current Price | $82.35 | $82.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.02% | -82.71% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,464.60 | 13,168.55 | 31,733.44 | 76,470.92 | 184,278.85 | 444,073.34 | 1,070,123.51 | 2,578,772.98 | 6,214,301.43 | 14,975,161.69 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% | 140.98% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.55 | 1.32 | 3.17 | 7.65 | 18.43 | 44.41 | 107.01 | 257.88 | 621.43 | 1,497.52 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.51 | 1.09 | 2.40 | 5.30 | 11.71 | 25.86 | 57.12 | 126.16 | 278.68 | 615.55 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $40.59 | 4.28% | $-129.75 | -419.65% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $46.92 | 5.88% | $-46.43 | -198.96% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $56.09 | 6.83% | $-14.78 | -126.35% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $56.61 | 4.81% | $29.51 | -47.88% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $54.07 | 0.11% | $-21.74 | -140.20% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $49.98 | 1.12% | $-54.19 | -208.43% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $69.99 | -0.41% | $-20.98 | -129.97% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $68.76 | -7.30% | $-14.43 | -120.99% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $52.83 | -7.23% | $-66.98 | -226.77% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $48.68 | -3.16% | $-37.59 | -177.22% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $51.81 | 1.87% | $-9.70 | -118.73% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $45.81 | 3.19% | $54.51 | 19.00% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $42.18 | -4.24% | $0.32 | -99.24% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $47.38 | -9.76% | $3.82 | -91.94% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $36.35 | -5.57% | $12.18 | -66.48% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $34.20 | -3.69% | $2.12 | -93.81% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $28.33 | 3.76% | $42.27 | 49.21% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $22.85 | 5.42% | $23.20 | 1.54% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $19.87 | 1.92% | $3.81 | -80.82% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $22.75 | 6.82% | $10.72 | -52.87% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $28.03 | -0.73% | $-25.64 | -191.46% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $23.59 | 4.20% | $-13.58 | -157.59% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $23.50 | 7.71% | $-54.16 | -330.47% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $22.00 | 7.07% | $11.63 | -47.15% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $18.38 | 10.07% | $-10.97 | -159.68% |
| $27.14 - $34.73 | 27 |
| $34.73 - $42.32 | 88 |
| $42.32 - $49.92 | 230 |
| $49.92 - $57.51 | 192 |
| $57.51 - $65.10 | 190 |
| $65.10 - $72.69 | 121 |
| $72.69 - $80.28 | 64 |
| $80.28 - $87.88 | 36 |
| $87.88 - $95.47 | 18 |
| $95.47 - $103.06 | 18 |
| $103.06 - $110.65 | 9 |
| $110.65 - $118.24 | 2 |
| $118.24 - $125.84 | 0 |
| $125.84 - $133.43 | 2 |
| $133.43 - $141.02 | 1 |
| $141.02 - $148.61 | 0 |
| $148.61 - $156.20 | 0 |
| $156.20 - $163.80 | 1 |
| $163.80 - $171.39 | 0 |
| $171.39 - $178.98 | 1 |