Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $3.20 |
| 5Y Range | 14.80 – 26.78 |
| 5Y Selected | 20.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 15.70% |
| 10Y Range | 17.88 – 31.86 |
| 10Y Selected | 24.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 38.42% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5733 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3581 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6467 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3462 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6486 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3423 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5136 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0143 |
| Safety Score | 0.1781 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 17.38% | 15.90% | 14.41% | 12.92% | 11.44% | 9.95% | 8.46% | 6.97% | 5.49% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 193.84 | 224.66 | 257.03 | 290.24 | 323.43 | 355.61 | 385.70 | 412.60 | 435.24 | 452.65 |
| EBITDA | 191.94 | 222.45 | 254.51 | 287.40 | 320.26 | 352.12 | 381.92 | 408.55 | 430.97 | 448.21 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 191.94 | 222.45 | 254.51 | 287.40 | 320.26 | 352.12 | 381.92 | 408.55 | 430.97 | 448.21 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -53.42 | -61.91 | -70.84 | -79.99 | -89.14 | -98.00 | -106.30 | -113.71 | -119.95 | -124.75 |
| NOPAT | 138.52 | 160.54 | 183.67 | 207.41 | 231.13 | 254.12 | 275.62 | 294.84 | 311.02 | 323.46 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 138.92 | 160.97 | 184.13 | 207.88 | 231.59 | 254.57 | 276.04 | 295.22 | 311.34 | 323.71 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 | 228,910,219.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 137.97 | 150.78 | 161.00 | 169.55 | 176.33 | 180.92 | 183.13 | 182.82 | 179.98 | 174.67 | Raw: 4,781.81 3,517.45 |
Raw: 6,683.70 3,484.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,313.07 | 5,181.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | -29.70 | -29.70 |
| Equity Value | 4,342.77 | 5,211.36 |
| (/) Shares Out | 228.91 | 228.91 |
| Fair Value | $18.97 | $22.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% | 84.31% |
| Buy Price | $2.98 | $3.57 |
| Current Price | $3.20 | $3.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.98% | 11.62% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 137.84 | 149.46 | 158.10 | 164.95 | 169.96 | 172.78 | 173.27 | 171.37 | 167.14 | 160.72 | Raw: 3,651.59 2,577.04 |
Raw: 5,103.96 2,437.02 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,357.35 | 4,062.61 |
| (-) Net Debt | -29.70 | -29.70 |
| Equity Value | 3,387.05 | 4,092.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 228.91 | 228.91 |
| Fair Value | $14.80 | $17.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% | 84.31% |
| Buy Price | $2.32 | $2.80 |
| Current Price | $3.20 | $3.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -27.45% | -12.35% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 138.10 | 152.13 | 163.97 | 174.32 | 183.00 | 189.54 | 193.66 | 195.15 | 193.93 | 189.99 | Raw: 6,895.18 5,288.68 |
Raw: 9,637.64 5,490.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,100.19 | 7,264.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | -29.70 | -29.70 |
| Equity Value | 6,129.89 | 7,294.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 228.91 | 228.91 |
| Fair Value | $26.78 | $31.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% | 84.31% |
| Buy Price | $4.20 | $5.00 |
| Current Price | $3.20 | $3.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 31.30% | 56.24% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 536.53 | 1,169.82 | 2,550.64 | 5,561.31 | 12,125.64 | 26,438.25 | 57,644.87 | 125,686.51 | 274,041.70 | 597,509.26 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% | 118.04% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.56 | 1.21 | 2.64 | 5.76 | 12.57 | 27.40 | 59.75 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.86 | 1.75 | 3.57 | 7.27 | 14.79 | 30.10 |
| $12.95 - $15.66 | 16 |
| $15.66 - $18.38 | 119 |
| $18.38 - $21.09 | 229 |
| $21.09 - $23.80 | 208 |
| $23.80 - $26.52 | 154 |
| $26.52 - $29.23 | 113 |
| $29.23 - $31.94 | 70 |
| $31.94 - $34.66 | 30 |
| $34.66 - $37.37 | 24 |
| $37.37 - $40.09 | 12 |
| $40.09 - $42.80 | 9 |
| $42.80 - $45.51 | 6 |
| $45.51 - $48.23 | 3 |
| $48.23 - $50.94 | 2 |
| $50.94 - $53.65 | 1 |
| $53.65 - $56.37 | 0 |
| $56.37 - $59.08 | 1 |
| $59.08 - $61.79 | 1 |
| $61.79 - $64.51 | 0 |
| $64.51 - $67.22 | 2 |