Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $357.02 |
| 5Y Range | 247.24 – 404.39 |
| 5Y Selected | 325.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.71% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $206.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -42.24% |
| 10Y Range | 281.79 – 445.00 |
| 10Y Selected | 363.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.71% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $229.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -35.58% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6717 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9365 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0625 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8384 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3088 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8868 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0582 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7399 |
| Safety Score | 0.6329 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.26% | 7.78% | 7.31% | 6.84% | 6.36% | 5.89% | 5.42% | 4.95% | 4.47% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 172,681.88 | 186,120.37 | 199,724.74 | 213,379.26 | 226,958.48 | 240,328.86 | 253,350.68 | 265,880.28 | 277,772.51 | 288,883.41 |
| EBITDA | 29,955.33 | 32,286.52 | 34,646.48 | 37,015.15 | 39,370.75 | 41,690.13 | 43,949.04 | 46,122.56 | 48,185.52 | 50,112.94 |
| D&A | -3,536.73 | -3,811.96 | -4,090.60 | -4,370.26 | -4,648.38 | -4,922.22 | -5,188.92 | -5,445.54 | -5,689.11 | -5,916.67 |
| EBIT | 26,418.60 | 28,474.55 | 30,555.89 | 32,644.89 | 34,722.38 | 36,767.91 | 38,760.12 | 40,677.02 | 42,496.41 | 44,196.27 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -7,069.78 | -7,619.96 | -8,176.94 | -8,735.97 | -9,291.92 | -9,839.31 | -10,372.44 | -10,885.41 | -11,372.29 | -11,827.19 |
| NOPAT | 19,348.82 | 20,854.59 | 22,378.95 | 23,908.92 | 25,430.46 | 26,928.60 | 28,387.68 | 29,791.61 | 31,124.12 | 32,369.09 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3,439.06 | -3,706.69 | -3,977.63 | -4,249.57 | -4,520.01 | -4,786.29 | -5,045.62 | -5,295.16 | -5,532.00 | -5,753.28 |
| NWC Investment | -594.92 | -607.15 | -614.64 | -616.91 | -613.51 | -604.07 | -588.32 | -566.08 | -537.29 | -501.99 |
| (+) D&A | 3,536.73 | 3,811.96 | 4,090.60 | 4,370.26 | 4,648.38 | 4,922.22 | 5,188.92 | 5,445.54 | 5,689.11 | 5,916.67 |
| Free Cash Flow | 18,851.57 | 20,352.72 | 21,877.27 | 23,412.70 | 24,945.32 | 26,460.46 | 27,942.65 | 29,375.91 | 30,743.94 | 32,030.49 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 | 994,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 11/2/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/17/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,688.13 | 19,417.86 | 19,131.78 | 18,767.09 | 18,312.16 | 17,804.55 | 17,233.93 | 16,607.00 | 15,930.99 | 15,213.53 | Raw: 385,550.53 270,971.31 |
Raw: 495,057.63 225,119.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 365,288.32 | 402,226.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 59,083.00 | 59,083.00 |
| Equity Value | 306,205.32 | 343,143.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 994.00 | 994.00 |
| Fair Value | $308.05 | $345.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.71% | 36.71% |
| Buy Price | $194.97 | $218.49 |
| Current Price | $357.02 | $357.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.39% | -38.80% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,671.09 | 19,322.42 | 18,864.83 | 18,337.15 | 17,728.51 | 17,080.51 | 16,382.94 | 15,643.57 | 14,870.47 | 14,071.79 | Raw: 312,879.36 211,919.16 |
Raw: 401,745.82 168,208.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 304,843.15 | 339,181.63 |
| (-) Net Debt | 59,083.00 | 59,083.00 |
| Equity Value | 245,760.15 | 280,098.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 994.00 | 994.00 |
| Fair Value | $247.24 | $281.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.71% | 36.71% |
| Buy Price | $156.48 | $178.34 |
| Current Price | $357.02 | $357.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.17% | -50.05% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,705.35 | 19,514.65 | 19,405.01 | 19,211.21 | 18,920.67 | 18,566.37 | 18,137.59 | 17,639.47 | 17,077.97 | 16,459.73 | Raw: 500,721.53 365,287.45 |
Raw: 642,940.40 317,775.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 461,044.34 | 501,413.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 59,083.00 | 59,083.00 |
| Equity Value | 401,961.34 | 442,330.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 994.00 | 994.00 |
| Fair Value | $404.39 | $445.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 36.71% | 36.71% |
| Buy Price | $255.94 | $281.64 |
| Current Price | $357.02 | $357.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -28.31% | -21.11% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 374,919.30 | 845,810.99 | 1,908,133.89 | 4,304,714.65 | 9,711,356.37 | 21,908,639.79 | 49,425,484.86 | 111,502,976.76 | 251,548,646.68 | 567,489,079.50 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% | 125.60% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 37.49 | 84.58 | 190.81 | 430.47 | 971.14 | 2,190.86 | 4,942.55 | 11,150.30 | 25,154.86 | 56,748.91 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 36.15 | 73.97 | 152.95 | 316.01 | 653.45 | 1,351.24 | 2,794.16 | 5,777.90 | 11,947.81 | 24,706.27 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $228.10 | 6.03% | $165.43 | -27.48% |
| 2019 | 2019-01-31 | $183.53 | 10.56% | $198.93 | 8.39% |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | $200.90 | 13.15% | $206.31 | 2.69% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $137.58 | 12.87% | $155.54 | 13.05% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $126.51 | 11.01% | $133.60 | 5.60% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $104.42 | 9.62% | $104.04 | -0.37% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $76.85 | 10.63% | $94.88 | 23.46% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $66.92 | 10.89% | $85.01 | 27.04% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-31 | $44.39 | 10.94% | $77.87 | 75.42% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-31 | $36.77 | 10.81% | $45.01 | 22.42% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-31 | $28.39 | 10.25% | $52.78 | 85.90% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-31 | $21.53 | 8.72% | $41.45 | 92.54% |
| 2008 | 2008-01-31 | $30.64 | 4.62% | $14.57 | -52.44% |
| 2007 | 2007-01-31 | $40.74 | 1.22% | $26.46 | -35.05% |
| 2006 | 2006-01-31 | $40.55 | 0.78% | $18.41 | -54.59% |
| 2005 | 2005-01-31 | $41.26 | 1.59% | $20.87 | -49.43% |
| 2004 | 2004-01-31 | $35.47 | 5.86% | $20.63 | -41.84% |
| 2003 | 2003-01-31 | $20.90 | 9.25% | $20.06 | -4.03% |
| 2002 | 2002-01-31 | $50.09 | 11.62% | $27.72 | -44.67% |
| 2001 | 2001-01-31 | $48.20 | 13.00% | $-9.20 | -119.09% |
| 2000 | 2000-01-31 | $56.63 | 12.47% | $-1.81 | -103.20% |
| 1999 | 1999-01-31 | $39.42 | 12.43% | $-5.34 | -113.55% |
| 1998 | 1998-01-31 | $20.17 | 14.94% | $-6.36 | -131.52% |
| 1997 | 1997-01-31 | $11.00 | 18.31% | $-1.90 | -117.29% |
| 1996 | 1996-01-31 | $10.22 | 20.22% | $-9.73 | -195.17% |
| $203.47 - $229.79 | 2 |
| $229.79 - $256.12 | 25 |
| $256.12 - $282.44 | 73 |
| $282.44 - $308.76 | 147 |
| $308.76 - $335.09 | 183 |
| $335.09 - $361.41 | 173 |
| $361.41 - $387.74 | 136 |
| $387.74 - $414.06 | 82 |
| $414.06 - $440.38 | 71 |
| $440.38 - $466.71 | 38 |
| $466.71 - $493.03 | 26 |
| $493.03 - $519.36 | 18 |
| $519.36 - $545.68 | 11 |
| $545.68 - $572.00 | 6 |
| $572.00 - $598.33 | 6 |
| $598.33 - $624.65 | 0 |
| $624.65 - $650.98 | 0 |
| $650.98 - $677.30 | 2 |
| $677.30 - $703.62 | 0 |
| $703.62 - $729.95 | 1 |