Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $52.65 |
| 5Y Range | 145.31 – 230.55 |
| 5Y Selected | 187.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 31.64% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $128.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 144.03% |
| 10Y Range | 158.11 – 242.51 |
| 10Y Selected | 200.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 31.64% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $136.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 160.10% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7660 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9633 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5415 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8341 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5280 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8609 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4346 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8564 |
| Safety Score | 0.6836 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.91% | 3.92% | 3.93% | 3.94% | 3.95% | 3.96% | 3.97% | 3.98% | 3.99% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 137.36 | 142.75 | 148.36 | 154.20 | 160.29 | 166.64 | 173.25 | 180.15 | 187.33 | 194.83 |
| EBITDA | 69.73 | 72.47 | 75.31 | 78.28 | 81.37 | 84.59 | 87.95 | 91.45 | 95.10 | 98.91 |
| D&A | -4.37 | -4.54 | -4.72 | -4.91 | -5.10 | -5.30 | -5.52 | -5.73 | -5.96 | -6.20 |
| EBIT | 65.36 | 67.92 | 70.59 | 73.37 | 76.27 | 79.29 | 82.44 | 85.72 | 89.14 | 92.70 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -14.27 | -14.83 | -15.42 | -16.02 | -16.66 | -17.31 | -18.00 | -18.72 | -19.47 | -20.24 |
| NOPAT | 51.09 | 53.09 | 55.18 | 57.35 | 59.61 | 61.98 | 64.44 | 67.00 | 69.67 | 72.46 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.37 | -2.47 | -2.56 | -2.66 | -2.77 | -2.88 | -2.99 | -3.11 | -3.24 | -3.37 |
| NWC Investment | 59.98 | 62.48 | 65.10 | 67.83 | 70.68 | 73.66 | 76.77 | 80.02 | 83.42 | 86.97 |
| (+) D&A | 4.37 | 4.54 | 4.72 | 4.91 | 5.10 | 5.30 | 5.52 | 5.73 | 5.96 | 6.20 |
| Free Cash Flow | 113.06 | 117.65 | 122.43 | 127.42 | 132.63 | 138.06 | 143.73 | 149.65 | 155.82 | 162.26 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 | 9,825,975.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 112.08 | 113.03 | 107.82 | 102.85 | 98.13 | 93.63 | 89.34 | 85.26 | 81.38 | 77.68 | Raw: 2,054.32 1,455.17 |
Raw: 2,513.31 1,151.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,989.08 | 2,113.09 |
| (-) Net Debt | 237.30 | 237.30 |
| Equity Value | 1,751.78 | 1,875.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Fair Value | $178.28 | $190.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 31.64% | 31.64% |
| Buy Price | $121.87 | $130.50 |
| Current Price | $52.65 | $52.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 131.50% | 147.89% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 111.98 | 112.56 | 106.39 | 100.57 | 95.08 | 89.90 | 85.00 | 80.38 | 76.02 | 71.91 | Raw: 1,666.48 1,138.56 |
Raw: 2,038.83 861.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,665.13 | 1,790.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 237.30 | 237.30 |
| Equity Value | 1,427.84 | 1,553.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Fair Value | $145.31 | $158.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 31.64% | 31.64% |
| Buy Price | $99.34 | $108.08 |
| Current Price | $52.65 | $52.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 88.69% | 105.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 112.19 | 113.51 | 109.28 | 105.21 | 101.30 | 97.55 | 93.95 | 90.49 | 87.16 | 83.97 | Raw: 2,669.56 1,961.20 |
Raw: 3,266.02 1,625.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,502.68 | 2,620.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 237.30 | 237.30 |
| Equity Value | 2,265.39 | 2,382.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Fair Value | $230.55 | $242.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 31.64% | 31.64% |
| Buy Price | $157.60 | $165.78 |
| Current Price | $52.65 | $52.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 199.37% | 214.90% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 426.68 | 1,023.83 | 2,456.72 | 5,894.98 | 14,145.22 | 33,941.97 | 81,444.98 | 195,430.18 | 468,941.78 | 1,125,242.74 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% | 139.95% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 1.41 | 3.39 | 8.14 | 19.54 | 46.89 | 112.52 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.88 | 1.93 | 4.25 | 9.36 | 20.58 | 45.26 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $37.82 | 6.37% | $69.76 | 84.45% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $39.25 | 2.08% | $54.17 | 38.01% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $29.55 | 1.46% | $22.56 | -23.65% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $31.25 | 3.43% | $13.40 | -57.11% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $21.30 | 8.62% | $30.35 | 42.47% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $21.75 | 9.95% | $11.64 | -46.48% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $18.06 | 8.14% | $37.41 | 107.16% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $16.18 | 4.67% | $13.09 | -19.08% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $13.83 | 0.46% | $18.27 | 32.13% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $15.69 | -1.59% | $2.22 | -85.85% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $12.95 | -3.93% | $-0.80 | -106.18% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $12.40 | -3.92% | $-5.69 | -145.86% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $15.20 | -2.34% | $-15.54 | -202.24% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $19.00 | -2.71% | $-12.08 | -163.58% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $18.05 | -1.00% | $-9.64 | -153.41% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $23.49 | 3.22% | $-13.87 | -159.07% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $24.22 | 7.93% | $22.09 | -8.78% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $19.27 | 8.82% | $-3.18 | -116.51% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $16.83 | 6.65% | $-31.20 | -285.39% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $14.97 | 2.82% | $21.34 | 42.52% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $16.67 | 1.89% | $14.15 | -15.10% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $21.77 | 3.97% | $27.72 | 27.32% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $21.20 | 18.36% | $51.17 | 141.35% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $14.51 | 25.87% | $63.72 | 339.13% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $17.69 | 24.86% | $51.36 | 190.34% |
| $116.99 - $133.98 | 5 |
| $133.98 - $150.98 | 63 |
| $150.98 - $167.97 | 144 |
| $167.97 - $184.97 | 229 |
| $184.97 - $201.96 | 205 |
| $201.96 - $218.96 | 151 |
| $218.96 - $235.95 | 84 |
| $235.95 - $252.95 | 47 |
| $252.95 - $269.94 | 34 |
| $269.94 - $286.94 | 18 |
| $286.94 - $303.93 | 6 |
| $303.93 - $320.93 | 6 |
| $320.93 - $337.92 | 5 |
| $337.92 - $354.92 | 1 |
| $354.92 - $371.91 | 0 |
| $371.91 - $388.91 | 0 |
| $388.91 - $405.90 | 0 |
| $405.90 - $422.90 | 1 |
| $422.90 - $439.89 | 0 |
| $439.89 - $456.89 | 1 |