Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.47 |
| 5Y Range | 40.58 – 87.85 |
| 5Y Selected | 64.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.35% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $17.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,119.14% |
| 10Y Range | 49.04 – 103.76 |
| 10Y Selected | 76.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.35% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $21.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,350.61% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7348 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8811 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0112 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2754 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4053 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7845 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5072 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1513 |
| Safety Score | 0.2791 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 28.59% | 25.86% | 23.13% | 20.40% | 17.66% | 14.93% | 12.20% | 9.47% | 6.73% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,999.92 | 3,775.70 | 4,648.93 | 5,597.09 | 6,585.68 | 7,568.93 | 8,492.16 | 9,295.94 | 9,921.79 | 10,318.67 |
| EBITDA | 2,166.44 | 2,726.69 | 3,357.31 | 4,042.04 | 4,755.97 | 5,466.04 | 6,132.76 | 6,713.23 | 7,165.20 | 7,451.81 |
| D&A | -652.85 | -821.68 | -1,011.72 | -1,218.06 | -1,433.20 | -1,647.18 | -1,848.10 | -2,023.02 | -2,159.22 | -2,245.59 |
| EBIT | 1,513.59 | 1,905.01 | 2,345.59 | 2,823.98 | 3,322.77 | 3,818.86 | 4,284.67 | 4,690.21 | 5,005.98 | 5,206.22 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -543.84 | -684.47 | -842.78 | -1,014.66 | -1,193.88 | -1,372.12 | -1,539.49 | -1,685.20 | -1,798.66 | -1,870.61 |
| NOPAT | 969.75 | 1,220.53 | 1,502.81 | 1,809.32 | 2,128.89 | 2,446.73 | 2,745.18 | 3,005.01 | 3,207.32 | 3,335.61 |
| Capital Expenditures | -861.04 | -1,083.70 | -1,334.34 | -1,606.48 | -1,890.22 | -2,172.44 | -2,437.42 | -2,668.12 | -2,847.75 | -2,961.66 |
| NWC Investment | 154.90 | 180.15 | 202.78 | 220.18 | 229.57 | 228.33 | 214.39 | 186.65 | 145.33 | 92.16 |
| (+) D&A | 652.85 | 821.68 | 1,011.72 | 1,218.06 | 1,433.20 | 1,647.18 | 1,848.10 | 2,023.02 | 2,159.22 | 2,245.59 |
| Free Cash Flow | 916.47 | 1,138.67 | 1,382.98 | 1,641.08 | 1,901.44 | 2,149.81 | 2,370.24 | 2,546.56 | 2,664.12 | 2,711.70 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 | 763,499,750.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 910.26 | 1,067.45 | 1,211.27 | 1,341.95 | 1,452.66 | 1,534.46 | 1,580.61 | 1,586.58 | 1,550.73 | 1,474.69 | Raw: 49,182.00 36,318.30 |
Raw: 70,140.03 36,868.98 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,301.89 | 50,579.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.44 | 72.44 |
| Equity Value | 42,229.45 | 50,507.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 763.50 | 763.50 |
| Fair Value | $55.31 | $66.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.35% | 74.35% |
| Buy Price | $14.19 | $16.97 |
| Current Price | $1.47 | $1.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 865.11% | 1,054.29% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 909.41 | 1,058.06 | 1,189.51 | 1,305.51 | 1,400.14 | 1,465.29 | 1,495.39 | 1,487.14 | 1,440.09 | 1,356.79 | Raw: 35,556.40 25,189.80 |
Raw: 50,708.13 24,409.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,052.43 | 37,517.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.44 | 72.44 |
| Equity Value | 30,979.99 | 37,444.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 763.50 | 763.50 |
| Fair Value | $40.58 | $49.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.35% | 74.35% |
| Buy Price | $10.41 | $12.58 |
| Current Price | $1.47 | $1.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 608.01% | 755.76% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 911.11 | 1,077.01 | 1,233.65 | 1,379.76 | 1,507.67 | 1,607.59 | 1,671.56 | 1,693.69 | 1,671.04 | 1,604.08 | Raw: 79,263.18 61,034.07 |
Raw: 113,039.76 64,936.80 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 67,143.28 | 79,293.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.44 | 72.44 |
| Equity Value | 67,070.84 | 79,221.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 763.50 | 763.50 |
| Fair Value | $87.85 | $103.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.35% | 74.35% |
| Buy Price | $22.53 | $26.61 |
| Current Price | $1.47 | $1.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,432.83% | 1,710.52% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,264.23 | 7,794.51 | 14,247.43 | 26,042.60 | 47,602.77 | 87,012.19 | 159,047.91 | 290,720.63 | 531,402.68 | 971,340.78 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.43 | 0.78 | 1.42 | 2.60 | 4.76 | 8.70 | 15.90 | 29.07 | 53.14 | 97.13 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.41 | 0.68 | 1.17 | 1.99 | 3.40 | 5.80 | 9.91 | 16.92 | 28.90 | 49.35 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $0.62 | 53.55% | $-10.26 | -1,765.57% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $1.13 | 61.71% | $15.01 | 1,228.73% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $0.88 | 38.15% | $1.90 | 114.44% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $0.41 | 21.09% | $2.17 | 431.03% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $0.18 | 21.67% | $-1.43 | -894.14% |
| $20.29 - $65.43 | 491 |
| $65.43 - $110.56 | 444 |
| $110.56 - $155.70 | 43 |
| $155.70 - $200.84 | 13 |
| $200.84 - $245.98 | 4 |
| $245.98 - $291.11 | 1 |
| $291.11 - $336.25 | 0 |
| $336.25 - $381.39 | 1 |
| $381.39 - $426.52 | 0 |
| $426.52 - $471.66 | 0 |
| $471.66 - $516.80 | 1 |
| $516.80 - $561.93 | 0 |
| $561.93 - $607.07 | 0 |
| $607.07 - $652.21 | 0 |
| $652.21 - $697.35 | 1 |
| $697.35 - $742.48 | 0 |
| $742.48 - $787.62 | 0 |
| $787.62 - $832.76 | 0 |
| $832.76 - $877.89 | 0 |
| $877.89 - $923.03 | 1 |