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Bunge Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$106.62
5Y Range-9.19 – 13.77
5Y Selected2.29
(-) Safety Margin84.31%
5Y Buy Price$0.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-99.66%
10Y Range4.25 – 33.80
10Y Selected19.03
(-) Safety Margin84.31%
10Y Buy Price$2.99
Upside (to Buy Price)-97.20%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.1530
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.4918
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0021
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2616
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1021
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3314
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4468
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0002
Safety Score0.1569

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.52%6.24%5.96%5.68%5.40%5.12%4.84%4.56%4.28%4.00%
Revenue56,573.2860,105.9563,690.5867,310.3270,946.9374,580.9878,191.9381,758.3585,258.0688,668.38
EBITDA2,025.422,151.892,280.232,409.822,540.022,670.122,799.402,927.083,052.383,174.47
D&A-573.05-608.83-645.14-681.80-718.64-755.45-792.03-828.15-863.60-898.14
EBIT1,452.371,543.061,635.091,728.021,821.381,914.672,007.372,098.932,188.782,276.33
Pro forma Taxes-349.25-371.06-393.19-415.54-437.99-460.42-482.71-504.73-526.34-547.39
NOPAT1,103.121,172.001,241.901,312.481,383.391,454.251,524.661,594.201,662.441,728.94
Capital Expenditures-785.17-834.20-883.96-934.19-984.67-1,035.10-1,085.22-1,134.72-1,183.29-1,230.62
NWC Investment-556.27-567.09-575.43-581.07-583.78-583.37-579.66-572.51-561.80-547.45
(+) D&A573.05608.83645.14681.80718.64755.45792.03828.15863.60898.14
Free Cash Flow334.71379.53427.65479.02533.58591.23651.81715.12780.95849.01
Diluted Shares Outstanding136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75136,758,731.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.25%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF331.81364.63376.59386.65394.78400.95405.17407.46407.86406.43
Raw: 7,962.04
5,639.88
Raw: 12,668.78
5,806.26

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,494.359,688.60
(-) Net Debt7,525.007,525.00
Equity Value-30.652,163.60
(/) Shares Out136.76136.76
Fair Value$-0.22$15.82
(-) Safety Margin84.31%84.31%
Buy Price$-0.04$2.48
Current Price$106.62$106.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-100.03%-97.67%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.75%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF331.51363.10371.61378.07382.51384.96385.48384.14381.02376.23
Raw: 6,500.15
4,440.96
Raw: 10,342.69
4,368.07

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,267.778,106.72
(-) Net Debt7,525.007,525.00
Equity Value-1,257.23581.72
(/) Shares Out136.76136.76
Fair Value$-9.19$4.25
(-) Safety Margin84.31%84.31%
Buy Price$-1.44$0.67
Current Price$106.62$106.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.35%-99.37%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.75%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF332.12366.18381.69395.51407.56417.76426.06432.43436.86439.35
Raw: 10,243.36
7,525.31
Raw: 16,298.69
8,112.35

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,408.3712,147.88
(-) Net Debt7,525.007,525.00
Equity Value1,883.374,622.88
(/) Shares Out136.76136.76
Fair Value$13.77$33.80
(-) Safety Margin84.31%84.31%
Buy Price$2.16$5.30
Current Price$106.62$106.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-97.97%-95.03%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$106.62
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH87.27%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue112,568.63210,811.97394,796.36739,351.621,384,614.602,593,025.504,856,066.989,094,159.1317,031,011.0231,894,684.51
Constant Implied Growth87.27%87.27%87.27%87.27%87.27%87.27%87.27%87.27%87.27%87.27%
Implied Free Cash Flow11.2621.0839.4873.94138.46259.30485.61909.421,703.103,189.47
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF10.4717.0229.2150.1486.07147.74253.61435.34747.301,282.79

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$57.554.66%$-211.99-468.36%
20182018-12-31$53.4410.68%$-331.56-720.44%
20172017-12-31$67.0810.30%$-469.38-799.73%
20162016-12-31$72.244.05%$-71.01-198.30%
20152015-12-31$68.28-1.88%$-34.37-150.33%
20142014-12-31$90.91-0.34%$23.75-73.87%
20132013-12-31$82.11-3.12%$48.25-41.24%
20122012-12-31$72.69-7.41%$-170.80-334.98%
20112011-12-31$57.20-9.35%$60.595.93%
20102010-12-31$65.52-4.00%$-336.09-612.96%
20092009-12-31$63.836.05%$-229.54-459.62%
20082008-12-31$51.777.08%$255.90394.31%
20072007-12-31$116.41-0.09%$-162.25-239.38%
20062006-12-31$72.51-0.44%$-122.75-269.28%
20052005-12-31$56.617.91%$-51.37-190.75%
20042004-12-31$57.0115.70%$73.3628.68%
20032003-12-31$32.9215.67%$-129.76-494.18%
20022002-12-31$24.066.03%$-53.45-322.15%
20012001-12-31$23.287.96%$-28.74-223.46%
20002000-12-31$16.0011.37%$-300.37-1,977.34%
19991999-12-31$16.0012.57%$8.32-47.98%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$17.98
Median
$15.80
10th Percentile
$3.94
90th Percentile
$33.84

Fair Value Distribution

$-6.10 - $-0.80
21
$-0.80 - $4.49
97
$4.49 - $9.79
158
$9.79 - $15.09
192
$15.09 - $20.38
165
$20.38 - $25.68
136
$25.68 - $30.98
92
$30.98 - $36.27
56
$36.27 - $41.57
36
$41.57 - $46.87
19
$46.87 - $52.16
15
$52.16 - $57.46
4
$57.46 - $62.76
4
$62.76 - $68.05
1
$68.05 - $73.35
2
$73.35 - $78.65
0
$78.65 - $83.94
1
$83.94 - $89.24
0
$89.24 - $94.54
0
$94.54 - $99.83
1