Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $165.64 |
| 5Y Range | 72.81 – 112.14 |
| 5Y Selected | 92.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.50% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $13.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.91% |
| 10Y Range | 74.19 – 109.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 92.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.50% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $13.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.95% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6149 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1220 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1938 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1555 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2025 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1908 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7403 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2200 |
| Safety Score | 0.1450 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -4.29% | -3.37% | -2.45% | -1.53% | -0.61% | 0.31% | 1.24% | 2.16% | 3.08% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 23,519.89 | 22,726.82 | 22,169.91 | 21,830.94 | 21,698.33 | 21,766.47 | 22,035.40 | 22,510.71 | 23,203.70 | 24,131.85 |
| EBITDA | 6,443.46 | 6,226.19 | 6,073.62 | 5,980.76 | 5,944.42 | 5,963.09 | 6,036.77 | 6,166.98 | 6,356.83 | 6,611.11 |
| D&A | -1,263.56 | -1,220.95 | -1,191.03 | -1,172.82 | -1,165.70 | -1,169.36 | -1,183.81 | -1,209.34 | -1,246.57 | -1,296.44 |
| EBIT | 5,179.90 | 5,005.23 | 4,882.58 | 4,807.93 | 4,778.72 | 4,793.73 | 4,852.96 | 4,957.64 | 5,110.26 | 5,314.67 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,140.44 | -1,101.99 | -1,074.98 | -1,058.55 | -1,052.12 | -1,055.42 | -1,068.46 | -1,091.51 | -1,125.11 | -1,170.12 |
| NOPAT | 4,039.45 | 3,903.25 | 3,807.60 | 3,749.38 | 3,726.61 | 3,738.31 | 3,784.50 | 3,866.13 | 3,985.15 | 4,144.55 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,159.52 | -1,120.42 | -1,092.96 | -1,076.25 | -1,069.72 | -1,073.07 | -1,086.33 | -1,109.77 | -1,143.93 | -1,189.69 |
| NWC Investment | 51.75 | 38.90 | 27.32 | 16.63 | 6.50 | -3.34 | -13.19 | -23.31 | -33.99 | -45.53 |
| (+) D&A | 1,263.56 | 1,220.95 | 1,191.03 | 1,172.82 | 1,165.70 | 1,169.36 | 1,183.81 | 1,209.34 | 1,246.57 | 1,296.44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,195.25 | 4,042.68 | 3,932.99 | 3,862.58 | 3,829.10 | 3,831.25 | 3,868.78 | 3,942.39 | 4,053.80 | 4,205.78 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 | 545,075,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,158.88 | 3,883.95 | 3,463.46 | 3,117.80 | 2,833.02 | 2,598.23 | 2,404.89 | 2,246.28 | 2,117.14 | 2,013.34 | Raw: 55,535.23 39,338.16 |
Raw: 60,998.42 27,956.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 56,795.27 | 56,793.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,669.50 | 8,669.50 |
| Equity Value | 48,125.77 | 48,123.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 545.08 | 545.08 |
| Fair Value | $88.29 | $88.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.50% | 85.50% |
| Buy Price | $12.80 | $12.80 |
| Current Price | $165.64 | $165.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.27% | -92.27% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,155.08 | 3,867.68 | 3,417.63 | 3,048.60 | 2,744.98 | 2,494.62 | 2,288.01 | 2,117.70 | 1,977.82 | 1,863.77 | Raw: 45,553.10 31,122.28 |
Raw: 50,034.32 21,131.21 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 48,356.25 | 49,107.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,669.50 | 8,669.50 |
| Equity Value | 39,686.75 | 40,437.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 545.08 | 545.08 |
| Fair Value | $72.81 | $74.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.50% | 85.50% |
| Buy Price | $10.56 | $10.76 |
| Current Price | $165.64 | $165.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.63% | -93.51% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,162.71 | 3,900.44 | 3,510.34 | 3,189.23 | 2,924.74 | 2,707.16 | 2,528.89 | 2,383.95 | 2,267.68 | 2,176.45 | Raw: 70,925.76 52,105.80 |
Raw: 77,902.97 38,774.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 69,793.25 | 68,526.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,669.50 | 8,669.50 |
| Equity Value | 61,123.75 | 59,856.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 545.08 | 545.08 |
| Fair Value | $112.14 | $109.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.50% | 85.50% |
| Buy Price | $16.26 | $15.92 |
| Current Price | $165.64 | $165.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.18% | -90.39% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 59,186.65 | 141,110.17 | 336,428.57 | 802,097.94 | 1,912,326.04 | 4,559,282.22 | 10,870,036.74 | 25,915,855.41 | 61,787,423.34 | 147,310,811.19 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% | 138.42% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.92 | 14.11 | 33.64 | 80.21 | 191.23 | 455.93 | 1,087.00 | 2,591.59 | 6,178.74 | 14,731.08 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.51 | 11.39 | 24.89 | 54.40 | 118.87 | 259.78 | 567.70 | 1,240.61 | 2,711.15 | 5,924.76 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $147.50 | -7.62% | $66.17 | -55.14% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $159.31 | -3.70% | $85.14 | -46.56% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $196.79 | 2.57% | $118.93 | -39.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $149.30 | 2.85% | $132.45 | -11.29% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $125.95 | 2.75% | $120.14 | -4.61% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $137.38 | 3.93% | $133.64 | -2.72% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $117.26 | 3.45% | $101.50 | -13.44% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $77.63 | 3.30% | $91.06 | 17.30% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $68.33 | 3.55% | $92.65 | 35.60% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $72.15 | 4.22% | $100.49 | 39.28% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $69.12 | 6.23% | $109.75 | 58.78% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $48.11 | 7.75% | $85.06 | 76.80% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $70.50 | 5.88% | $72.88 | 3.38% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $65.16 | 4.43% | $62.34 | -4.32% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $64.80 | 3.64% | $74.69 | 15.26% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $68.62 | 5.17% | $80.62 | 17.49% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $71.09 | 8.94% | $85.96 | 20.92% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $51.54 | 9.39% | $60.84 | 18.05% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $49.42 | 9.36% | $56.97 | 15.27% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $50.37 | 8.13% | $29.51 | -41.42% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $40.92 | 5.20% | $44.11 | 7.78% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $29.73 | 3.51% | $16.95 | -42.98% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $34.31 | 2.82% | $3.42 | -90.03% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $34.70 | 3.47% | $21.43 | -38.24% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $27.75 | 4.96% | $24.25 | -12.62% |
| $57.49 - $63.93 | 9 |
| $63.93 - $70.36 | 40 |
| $70.36 - $76.80 | 124 |
| $76.80 - $83.24 | 192 |
| $83.24 - $89.68 | 176 |
| $89.68 - $96.12 | 171 |
| $96.12 - $102.56 | 116 |
| $102.56 - $109.00 | 67 |
| $109.00 - $115.44 | 52 |
| $115.44 - $121.88 | 19 |
| $121.88 - $128.31 | 17 |
| $128.31 - $134.75 | 8 |
| $134.75 - $141.19 | 3 |
| $141.19 - $147.63 | 2 |
| $147.63 - $154.07 | 0 |
| $154.07 - $160.51 | 1 |
| $160.51 - $166.95 | 1 |
| $166.95 - $173.39 | 1 |
| $173.39 - $179.83 | 0 |
| $179.83 - $186.26 | 1 |