Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $27.82 |
| 5Y Range | 137.60 – 205.44 |
| 5Y Selected | 171.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $24.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -12.45% |
| 10Y Range | 156.31 – 228.77 |
| 10Y Selected | 192.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $27.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -1.72% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3053 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2043 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1205 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2110 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2713 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0247 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6434 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0066 |
| Safety Score | 0.1420 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.49% | 8.88% | 8.27% | 7.66% | 7.05% | 6.44% | 5.83% | 5.22% | 4.61% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 673.00 | 732.79 | 793.41 | 854.20 | 914.44 | 973.35 | 1,030.11 | 1,083.89 | 1,133.86 | 1,179.21 |
| EBITDA | 538.69 | 586.55 | 635.07 | 683.73 | 731.95 | 779.10 | 824.53 | 867.58 | 907.58 | 943.88 |
| D&A | -14.89 | -16.21 | -17.55 | -18.90 | -20.23 | -21.53 | -22.79 | -23.98 | -25.09 | -26.09 |
| EBIT | 523.80 | 570.34 | 617.52 | 664.84 | 711.72 | 757.57 | 801.74 | 843.60 | 882.49 | 917.79 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -141.93 | -154.54 | -167.32 | -180.14 | -192.85 | -205.27 | -217.24 | -228.58 | -239.12 | -248.68 |
| NOPAT | 381.87 | 415.80 | 450.20 | 484.69 | 518.87 | 552.30 | 584.50 | 615.02 | 643.37 | 669.11 |
| Capital Expenditures | -11.85 | -12.90 | -13.96 | -15.03 | -16.10 | -17.13 | -18.13 | -19.08 | -19.96 | -20.76 |
| NWC Investment | -12.30 | -12.60 | -12.78 | -12.81 | -12.70 | -12.42 | -11.96 | -11.34 | -10.53 | -9.56 |
| (+) D&A | 14.89 | 16.21 | 17.55 | 18.90 | 20.23 | 21.53 | 22.79 | 23.98 | 25.09 | 26.09 |
| Free Cash Flow | 372.62 | 406.51 | 441.01 | 475.74 | 510.31 | 544.28 | 577.20 | 608.59 | 637.97 | 664.88 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 | 41,640,250.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 369.39 | 374.24 | 372.14 | 367.65 | 361.48 | 353.39 | 343.51 | 331.98 | 318.99 | 304.72 | Raw: 7,447.83 5,050.88 |
Raw: 9,703.74 4,257.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,895.77 | 7,755.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.00 | 56.00 |
| Equity Value | 6,839.76 | 7,699.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 41.64 | 41.64 |
| Fair Value | $164.26 | $184.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% | 85.80% |
| Buy Price | $23.32 | $26.26 |
| Current Price | $27.82 | $27.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -16.16% | -5.62% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 369.05 | 371.01 | 365.57 | 357.85 | 348.65 | 337.75 | 325.33 | 311.56 | 296.64 | 280.80 | Raw: 6,102.83 3,973.70 |
Raw: 7,951.35 3,200.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,785.84 | 6,564.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.00 | 56.00 |
| Equity Value | 5,729.83 | 6,508.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 41.64 | 41.64 |
| Fair Value | $137.60 | $156.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% | 85.80% |
| Buy Price | $19.54 | $22.20 |
| Current Price | $27.82 | $27.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.76% | -20.22% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 369.73 | 377.52 | 378.88 | 377.81 | 374.90 | 369.90 | 362.89 | 353.96 | 343.25 | 330.93 | Raw: 9,527.02 6,731.79 |
Raw: 12,412.70 5,942.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,610.63 | 9,582.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.00 | 56.00 |
| Equity Value | 8,554.62 | 9,526.02 |
| (/) Shares Out | 41.64 | 41.64 |
| Fair Value | $205.44 | $228.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% | 85.80% |
| Buy Price | $29.17 | $32.49 |
| Current Price | $27.82 | $27.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 4.86% | 16.77% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,344.36 | 2,975.99 | 6,587.91 | 14,583.54 | 32,283.35 | 71,465.14 | 158,201.25 | 350,207.59 | 775,248.97 | 1,716,156.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% | 121.37% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 1.46 | 3.23 | 7.15 | 15.82 | 35.02 | 77.52 | 171.62 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 1.03 | 2.10 | 4.25 | 8.63 | 17.51 | 35.53 | 72.09 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $32.70 | 9.08% | $14.19 | -56.62% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $32.70 | 3.65% | $15.59 | -52.31% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $32.70 | 5.57% | $10.83 | -66.88% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $32.70 | 2.53% | $19.05 | -41.73% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $32.70 | -2.22% | $8.67 | -73.49% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $32.70 | -4.13% | $7.54 | -76.93% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $32.70 | 1.48% | $10.79 | -67.00% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $32.70 | 2.23% | $10.99 | -66.38% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $32.70 | 2.68% | $3.05 | -90.66% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $32.70 | 2.41% | $14.22 | -56.51% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $32.70 | 1.88% | $9.45 | -71.11% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $32.70 | 5.09% | $-2.80 | -108.57% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $32.70 | 3.43% | $5.60 | -82.87% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $32.70 | -5.51% | $10.29 | -68.52% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $32.70 | -10.96% | $11.88 | -63.67% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $32.70 | -12.19% | $8.70 | -73.39% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $32.70 | -2.30% | $18.96 | -42.02% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $32.70 | 7.02% | $20.83 | -36.31% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $32.70 | 7.79% | $25.57 | -21.81% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $32.70 | 7.75% | $13.10 | -59.94% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $32.70 | 4.22% | $14.11 | -56.84% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $32.70 | 4.27% | $8.55 | -73.86% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $32.70 | 6.12% | $13.21 | -59.59% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $32.70 | 9.67% | $14.27 | -56.36% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $32.70 | 13.95% | $14.80 | -54.74% |
| $122.57 - $138.48 | 14 |
| $138.48 - $154.38 | 86 |
| $154.38 - $170.28 | 178 |
| $170.28 - $186.19 | 234 |
| $186.19 - $202.09 | 197 |
| $202.09 - $218.00 | 128 |
| $218.00 - $233.90 | 76 |
| $233.90 - $249.80 | 38 |
| $249.80 - $265.71 | 24 |
| $265.71 - $281.61 | 9 |
| $281.61 - $297.52 | 7 |
| $297.52 - $313.42 | 3 |
| $313.42 - $329.32 | 1 |
| $329.32 - $345.23 | 0 |
| $345.23 - $361.13 | 0 |
| $361.13 - $377.04 | 2 |
| $377.04 - $392.94 | 0 |
| $392.94 - $408.84 | 1 |
| $408.84 - $424.75 | 1 |
| $424.75 - $440.65 | 1 |