Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $9.22 |
| 5Y Range | 5.24 – 12.28 |
| 5Y Selected | 8.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.59% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.37% |
| 10Y Range | 5.43 – 12.16 |
| 10Y Selected | 8.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.59% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.27% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0628 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7540 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1250 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3832 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0131 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6457 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0541 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2312 |
| Safety Score | 0.2803 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.01% | 2.23% | 2.45% | 2.67% | 2.89% | 3.11% | 3.34% | 3.56% | 3.78% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 311.24 | 318.18 | 325.97 | 334.68 | 344.36 | 355.09 | 366.93 | 379.98 | 394.34 | 410.12 |
| EBITDA | 49.95 | 51.06 | 52.31 | 53.71 | 55.26 | 56.98 | 58.89 | 60.98 | 63.28 | 65.82 |
| D&A | -16.69 | -17.07 | -17.48 | -17.95 | -18.47 | -19.05 | -19.68 | -20.38 | -21.15 | -22.00 |
| EBIT | 33.25 | 34.00 | 34.83 | 35.76 | 36.79 | 37.94 | 39.20 | 40.60 | 42.13 | 43.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -8.33 | -8.51 | -8.72 | -8.95 | -9.21 | -9.50 | -9.82 | -10.16 | -10.55 | -10.97 |
| NOPAT | 24.93 | 25.48 | 26.11 | 26.81 | 27.58 | 28.44 | 29.39 | 30.43 | 31.58 | 32.85 |
| Capital Expenditures | -18.75 | -19.17 | -19.64 | -20.17 | -20.75 | -21.40 | -22.11 | -22.90 | -23.76 | -24.71 |
| NWC Investment | -1.76 | -2.00 | -2.25 | -2.51 | -2.79 | -3.09 | -3.41 | -3.76 | -4.14 | -4.54 |
| (+) D&A | 16.69 | 17.07 | 17.48 | 17.95 | 18.47 | 19.05 | 19.68 | 20.38 | 21.15 | 22.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 21.10 | 21.38 | 21.71 | 22.08 | 22.51 | 23.00 | 23.55 | 24.16 | 24.84 | 25.59 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 | 64,476,013.25 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 3/31/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 9/29/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 20.98 | 20.48 | 19.55 | 18.71 | 17.94 | 17.24 | 16.60 | 16.02 | 15.49 | 15.01 | Raw: 585.65 452.60 |
Raw: 665.67 378.81 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 550.26 | 556.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.05 | 72.05 |
| Equity Value | 478.21 | 484.78 |
| (/) Shares Out | 64.48 | 64.48 |
| Fair Value | $7.42 | $7.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.59% | 75.59% |
| Buy Price | $1.81 | $1.84 |
| Current Price | $9.22 | $9.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.36% | -80.09% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 20.96 | 20.35 | 19.24 | 18.24 | 17.33 | 16.50 | 15.74 | 15.05 | 14.41 | 13.84 | Raw: 421.96 313.50 |
Raw: 479.62 250.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 409.61 | 422.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.05 | 72.05 |
| Equity Value | 337.56 | 349.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 64.48 | 64.48 |
| Fair Value | $5.24 | $5.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.59% | 75.59% |
| Buy Price | $1.28 | $1.32 |
| Current Price | $9.22 | $9.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.14% | -85.63% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 21.00 | 20.62 | 19.87 | 19.19 | 18.58 | 18.02 | 17.52 | 17.07 | 16.66 | 16.30 | Raw: 950.96 764.75 |
Raw: 1,080.90 671.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 864.01 | 855.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | 72.05 | 72.05 |
| Equity Value | 791.96 | 783.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 64.48 | 64.48 |
| Fair Value | $12.28 | $12.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.59% | 75.59% |
| Buy Price | $3.00 | $2.97 |
| Current Price | $9.22 | $9.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.48% | -67.81% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,176.06 | 2,264.26 | 4,359.37 | 8,393.06 | 16,159.10 | 31,111.01 | 59,897.81 | 115,320.83 | 222,026.38 | 427,465.83 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.44 | 0.84 | 1.62 | 3.11 | 5.99 | 11.53 | 22.20 | 42.75 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.37 | 0.67 | 1.21 | 2.19 | 3.97 | 7.19 | 13.03 | 23.59 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $11.00 | 1.80% | $1.90 | -82.68% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $9.78 | 3.51% | $-2.11 | -121.59% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $10.16 | 6.05% | $3.39 | -66.61% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $8.59 | 4.84% | $7.10 | -17.34% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $6.97 | 4.46% | $1.53 | -78.12% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $5.35 | 6.76% | $-3.93 | -173.48% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $4.45 | 9.23% | $2.41 | -45.91% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $2.56 | 10.89% | $2.33 | -9.12% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $2.45 | 12.17% | $7.64 | 211.75% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $2.16 | 8.28% | $9.86 | 356.25% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $1.31 | 3.36% | $0.39 | -70.05% |
| $3.72 - $6.60 | 336 |
| $6.60 - $9.49 | 429 |
| $9.49 - $12.38 | 153 |
| $12.38 - $15.26 | 39 |
| $15.26 - $18.15 | 22 |
| $18.15 - $21.04 | 9 |
| $21.04 - $23.93 | 5 |
| $23.93 - $26.81 | 3 |
| $26.81 - $29.70 | 2 |
| $29.70 - $32.59 | 0 |
| $32.59 - $35.47 | 0 |
| $35.47 - $38.36 | 0 |
| $38.36 - $41.25 | 0 |
| $41.25 - $44.14 | 0 |
| $44.14 - $47.02 | 1 |
| $47.02 - $49.91 | 0 |
| $49.91 - $52.80 | 0 |
| $52.80 - $55.69 | 0 |
| $55.69 - $58.57 | 0 |
| $58.57 - $61.46 | 0 |