Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $6.33 |
| 5Y Range | 82.78 – 121.13 |
| 5Y Selected | 101.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $14.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 126.95% |
| 10Y Range | 88.05 – 125.46 |
| 10Y Selected | 106.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $15.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 137.63% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0221 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0727 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0443 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0052 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0917 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0004 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0106 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0058 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.45% | 1.73% | 2.02% | 2.30% | 2.58% | 2.87% | 3.15% | 3.43% | 3.72% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 231.84 | 235.86 | 240.62 | 246.15 | 252.51 | 259.75 | 267.93 | 277.13 | 287.42 | 298.92 |
| EBITDA | 119.93 | 122.01 | 124.47 | 127.33 | 130.62 | 134.36 | 138.59 | 143.35 | 148.68 | 154.63 |
| D&A | -3.57 | -3.64 | -3.71 | -3.80 | -3.89 | -4.01 | -4.13 | -4.27 | -4.43 | -4.61 |
| EBIT | 116.35 | 118.37 | 120.76 | 123.53 | 126.72 | 130.36 | 134.46 | 139.08 | 144.25 | 150.02 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -31.75 | -32.30 | -32.95 | -33.70 | -34.57 | -35.57 | -36.69 | -37.95 | -39.36 | -40.93 |
| NOPAT | 84.61 | 86.07 | 87.81 | 89.83 | 92.15 | 94.79 | 97.78 | 101.13 | 104.89 | 109.09 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.61 | -2.66 | -2.71 | -2.77 | -2.84 | -2.93 | -3.02 | -3.12 | -3.24 | -3.37 |
| NWC Investment | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.10 |
| (+) D&A | 3.57 | 3.64 | 3.71 | 3.80 | 3.89 | 4.01 | 4.13 | 4.27 | 4.43 | 4.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 85.54 | 87.02 | 88.77 | 90.80 | 93.14 | 95.81 | 98.82 | 102.20 | 106.00 | 110.23 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 | 13,226,250.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.95 | 5.95 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.80 | 80.11 | 74.91 | 70.23 | 66.03 | 62.26 | 58.86 | 55.75 | 53.00 | 50.52 | Raw: 1,345.86 913.51 |
Raw: 1,592.74 698.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,289.60 | 1,355.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | -5.20 | -5.20 |
| Equity Value | 1,294.79 | 1,360.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.23 | 13.23 |
| Fair Value | $97.90 | $102.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $13.79 | $14.49 |
| Current Price | $6.33 | $6.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 117.91% | 128.97% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.72 | 79.42 | 73.58 | 68.37 | 63.70 | 59.51 | 55.75 | 52.32 | 49.29 | 46.55 | Raw: 1,104.62 719.94 |
Raw: 1,307.26 526.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,089.73 | 1,159.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | -5.20 | -5.20 |
| Equity Value | 1,094.93 | 1,164.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.23 | 13.23 |
| Fair Value | $82.78 | $88.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $11.66 | $12.41 |
| Current Price | $6.33 | $6.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 84.27% | 95.99% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 84.88 | 80.81 | 76.26 | 72.17 | 68.48 | 65.16 | 62.18 | 59.44 | 57.03 | 54.86 | Raw: 1,717.21 1,214.33 |
Raw: 2,032.22 972.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,596.93 | 1,654.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | -5.20 | -5.20 |
| Equity Value | 1,602.13 | 1,659.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.23 | 13.23 |
| Fair Value | $121.13 | $125.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $17.07 | $17.68 |
| Current Price | $6.33 | $6.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 169.63% | 179.26% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 441.63 | 813.47 | 1,498.39 | 2,760.00 | 5,083.87 | 9,364.38 | 17,249.00 | 31,772.31 | 58,523.95 | 107,799.95 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% | 84.20% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.94 | 1.72 | 3.18 | 5.85 | 10.78 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 1.59 | 2.68 | 4.53 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $13.52 | 3.55% | $20.98 | 55.20% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $13.36 | 0.28% | $17.80 | 33.23% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $6.37 | 0.80% | $10.39 | 63.18% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $4.33 | 1.69% | $6.76 | 56.14% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $13.60 | 2.99% | $6.67 | -50.98% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $3.71 | 2.99% | $14.39 | 288.00% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $10.08 | 2.86% | $10.51 | 4.22% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $16.86 | 0.99% | $7.11 | -57.82% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $19.80 | 2.64% | $21.43 | 8.24% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $10.50 | 11.72% | $11.29 | 7.48% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $3.57 | 31.03% | $-28.84 | -907.86% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $4.69 | 58.76% | $-123.23 | -2,727.49% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $1.75 | 76.04% | $-54.23 | -3,198.98% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $1.68 | 59.77% | $-134.53 | -8,108.00% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $5.95 | 20.55% | $-11.66 | -295.98% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $66.48 | -17.57% | $-6.44 | -109.68% |
| $72.06 - $79.30 | 13 |
| $79.30 - $86.54 | 68 |
| $86.54 - $93.78 | 158 |
| $93.78 - $101.02 | 222 |
| $101.02 - $108.26 | 181 |
| $108.26 - $115.50 | 132 |
| $115.50 - $122.74 | 99 |
| $122.74 - $129.98 | 50 |
| $129.98 - $137.22 | 34 |
| $137.22 - $144.46 | 18 |
| $144.46 - $151.70 | 12 |
| $151.70 - $158.94 | 5 |
| $158.94 - $166.18 | 6 |
| $166.18 - $173.42 | 0 |
| $173.42 - $180.66 | 1 |
| $180.66 - $187.90 | 0 |
| $187.90 - $195.14 | 0 |
| $195.14 - $202.38 | 0 |
| $202.38 - $209.62 | 0 |
| $209.62 - $216.86 | 1 |