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Pioneer High Income Municipal Fund Class Y

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$5.59
5Y Range2.00 – 2.90
5Y Selected2.45
(-) Safety Margin84.37%
5Y Buy Price$0.38
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.16%
10Y Range2.04 – 2.86
10Y Selected2.45
(-) Safety Margin84.37%
10Y Buy Price$0.38
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.15%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8293
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8798
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0016
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0025
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0045
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0073
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0150
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1834
Safety Score0.1563

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033
% Growth-2.92%-2.15%-1.38%-0.61%0.16%0.93%1.69%2.46%3.23%4.00%
Revenue26.1325.5725.2225.0625.1025.3425.7626.4027.2528.34
EBITDA23.7523.2422.9222.7822.8223.0323.4224.0024.7725.76
D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
EBIT23.7523.2422.9222.7822.8223.0323.4224.0024.7725.76
Pro forma Taxes-0.59-0.57-0.57-0.56-0.56-0.57-0.58-0.59-0.61-0.64
NOPAT23.1722.6722.3622.2222.2622.4622.8423.4024.1625.13
Capital Expenditures0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NWC Investment0.010.010.010.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02
(+) D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
Free Cash Flow23.1822.6822.3622.2222.2522.4622.8323.3924.1525.11
Diluted Shares Outstanding166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00166,605,369.00

Discounting Periods

MetricMar-24Mar-25Mar-26Mar-27Mar-28Mar-29Mar-30Mar-31Mar-32Mar-33
Period Start9/30/234/1/244/1/254/1/264/1/274/1/284/1/294/1/304/1/314/1/32
Period End3/31/243/31/253/31/263/31/273/31/283/31/293/31/303/31/313/31/323/31/33
Mid-Point12/30/239/30/249/30/259/30/269/30/279/30/289/30/299/30/309/30/319/30/32
Time (t)0.100.100.100.701.702.703.704.705.716.71
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.44%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.940.860.790.720.660.610.56
PV UFCF22.9822.4822.1720.9119.1917.7516.5515.5414.6914.00
Raw: 342.40
282.71
Raw: 386.33
206.20

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value390.44392.45
(-) Net Debt-0.42-0.42
Equity Value390.86392.88
(/) Shares Out166.61166.61
Fair Value$2.35$2.36
(-) Safety Margin84.37%84.37%
Buy Price$0.37$0.37
Current Price$5.59$5.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.44%-93.41%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.94%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.930.850.770.700.640.580.52
PV UFCF22.9622.4622.1520.7818.9017.3216.0014.8813.9413.17
Raw: 278.08
225.04
Raw: 313.75
156.81

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value332.28339.36
(-) Net Debt-0.42-0.42
Equity Value332.70339.78
(/) Shares Out166.61166.61
Fair Value$2.00$2.04
(-) Safety Margin84.37%84.37%
Buy Price$0.31$0.32
Current Price$5.59$5.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-94.42%-94.30%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.94%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.950.880.810.750.690.640.59
PV UFCF23.0022.5022.1921.0419.5018.2017.1216.2215.4814.89
Raw: 444.13
374.21
Raw: 501.11
285.83

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value482.44475.97
(-) Net Debt-0.42-0.42
Equity Value482.86476.39
(/) Shares Out166.61166.61
Fair Value$2.90$2.86
(-) Safety Margin84.37%84.37%
Buy Price$0.45$0.45
Current Price$5.59$5.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-91.90%-92.00%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$5.59
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH193.02%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue82.41241.47707.562,073.286,075.0717,801.0152,160.09152,838.22447,842.861,312,258.31
Constant Implied Growth193.02%193.02%193.02%193.02%193.02%193.02%193.02%193.02%193.02%193.02%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.010.020.070.210.611.785.2215.2844.78131.23
Discount Factor0.990.860.790.720.660.610.560.510.470.43
Present Value of Implied FCF0.010.020.060.150.401.082.917.8120.9856.34

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20182018-03-31$7.17-3.37%$1.86-74.00%
20172017-03-31$7.10-3.41%$1.95-72.47%
20162016-03-31$7.35-4.65%$4.44-39.59%
20152015-03-31$7.32-6.49%$1.11-84.87%
20142014-03-31$7.01-9.64%$4.13-41.06%
20132013-03-31$8.02-10.57%$0.04-99.55%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$2.40
Median
$2.35
10th Percentile
$2.03
90th Percentile
$2.83

Fair Value Distribution

$1.69 - $1.83
4
$1.83 - $1.96
44
$1.96 - $2.09
118
$2.09 - $2.23
182
$2.23 - $2.36
170
$2.36 - $2.49
165
$2.49 - $2.62
117
$2.62 - $2.76
69
$2.76 - $2.89
48
$2.89 - $3.02
32
$3.02 - $3.16
19
$3.16 - $3.29
10
$3.29 - $3.42
12
$3.42 - $3.56
3
$3.56 - $3.69
2
$3.69 - $3.82
2
$3.82 - $3.96
2
$3.96 - $4.09
0
$4.09 - $4.22
0
$4.22 - $4.36
1