| Current Price | $5.59 |
| 5Y Range | 2.00 – 2.90 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.37% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.16% |
| 10Y Range | 2.04 – 2.86 |
| 10Y Selected | 2.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.37% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.15% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8293 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8798 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0016 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0025 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0045 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0073 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0150 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1834 |
| Safety Score | 0.1563 |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -2.92% | -2.15% | -1.38% | -0.61% | 0.16% | 0.93% | 1.69% | 2.46% | 3.23% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 26.13 | 25.57 | 25.22 | 25.06 | 25.10 | 25.34 | 25.76 | 26.40 | 27.25 | 28.34 |
| EBITDA | 23.75 | 23.24 | 22.92 | 22.78 | 22.82 | 23.03 | 23.42 | 24.00 | 24.77 | 25.76 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 23.75 | 23.24 | 22.92 | 22.78 | 22.82 | 23.03 | 23.42 | 24.00 | 24.77 | 25.76 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.59 | -0.57 | -0.57 | -0.56 | -0.56 | -0.57 | -0.58 | -0.59 | -0.61 | -0.64 |
| NOPAT | 23.17 | 22.67 | 22.36 | 22.22 | 22.26 | 22.46 | 22.84 | 23.40 | 24.16 | 25.13 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 23.18 | 22.68 | 22.36 | 22.22 | 22.25 | 22.46 | 22.83 | 23.39 | 24.15 | 25.11 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 | 166,605,369.00 |
| Metric | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/23 | 4/1/24 | 4/1/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 |
| Period End | 3/31/24 | 3/31/25 | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/23 | 9/30/24 | 9/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 5.71 | 6.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.98 | 22.48 | 22.17 | 20.91 | 19.19 | 17.75 | 16.55 | 15.54 | 14.69 | 14.00 | Raw: 342.40 282.71 |
Raw: 386.33 206.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 390.44 | 392.45 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.42 | -0.42 |
| Equity Value | 390.86 | 392.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 166.61 | 166.61 |
| Fair Value | $2.35 | $2.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.37% | 84.37% |
| Buy Price | $0.37 | $0.37 |
| Current Price | $5.59 | $5.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.44% | -93.41% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.96 | 22.46 | 22.15 | 20.78 | 18.90 | 17.32 | 16.00 | 14.88 | 13.94 | 13.17 | Raw: 278.08 225.04 |
Raw: 313.75 156.81 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 332.28 | 339.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.42 | -0.42 |
| Equity Value | 332.70 | 339.78 |
| (/) Shares Out | 166.61 | 166.61 |
| Fair Value | $2.00 | $2.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.37% | 84.37% |
| Buy Price | $0.31 | $0.32 |
| Current Price | $5.59 | $5.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.42% | -94.30% |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23.00 | 22.50 | 22.19 | 21.04 | 19.50 | 18.20 | 17.12 | 16.22 | 15.48 | 14.89 | Raw: 444.13 374.21 |
Raw: 501.11 285.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 482.44 | 475.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.42 | -0.42 |
| Equity Value | 482.86 | 476.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 166.61 | 166.61 |
| Fair Value | $2.90 | $2.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.37% | 84.37% |
| Buy Price | $0.45 | $0.45 |
| Current Price | $5.59 | $5.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.90% | -92.00% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 82.41 | 241.47 | 707.56 | 2,073.28 | 6,075.07 | 17,801.01 | 52,160.09 | 152,838.22 | 447,842.86 | 1,312,258.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% | 193.02% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 0.61 | 1.78 | 5.22 | 15.28 | 44.78 | 131.23 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 1.08 | 2.91 | 7.81 | 20.98 | 56.34 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $7.17 | -3.37% | $1.86 | -74.00% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $7.10 | -3.41% | $1.95 | -72.47% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $7.35 | -4.65% | $4.44 | -39.59% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $7.32 | -6.49% | $1.11 | -84.87% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $7.01 | -9.64% | $4.13 | -41.06% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $8.02 | -10.57% | $0.04 | -99.55% |
| $1.69 - $1.83 | 4 |
| $1.83 - $1.96 | 44 |
| $1.96 - $2.09 | 118 |
| $2.09 - $2.23 | 182 |
| $2.23 - $2.36 | 170 |
| $2.36 - $2.49 | 165 |
| $2.49 - $2.62 | 117 |
| $2.62 - $2.76 | 69 |
| $2.76 - $2.89 | 48 |
| $2.89 - $3.02 | 32 |
| $3.02 - $3.16 | 19 |
| $3.16 - $3.29 | 10 |
| $3.29 - $3.42 | 12 |
| $3.42 - $3.56 | 3 |
| $3.56 - $3.69 | 2 |
| $3.69 - $3.82 | 2 |
| $3.82 - $3.96 | 2 |
| $3.96 - $4.09 | 0 |
| $4.09 - $4.22 | 0 |
| $4.22 - $4.36 | 1 |