Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $56.21 |
| 5Y Range | 733.80 – 1,092.58 |
| 5Y Selected | 913.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.70% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $176.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 213.55% |
| 10Y Range | 618.51 – 849.17 |
| 10Y Selected | 733.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.70% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $141.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 151.97% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8978 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7930 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2133 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2817 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0329 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2979 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5491 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2370 |
| Safety Score | 0.1930 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 11.62% | 10.77% | 9.92% | 9.08% | 8.23% | 7.39% | 6.54% | 5.69% | 4.85% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 127.05 | 140.74 | 154.71 | 168.75 | 182.64 | 196.13 | 208.96 | 220.85 | 231.56 | 240.82 |
| EBITDA | 40.54 | 44.90 | 49.36 | 53.84 | 58.27 | 62.57 | 66.67 | 70.46 | 73.88 | 76.83 |
| D&A | -2.89 | -3.20 | -3.52 | -3.84 | -4.16 | -4.46 | -4.76 | -5.03 | -5.27 | -5.48 |
| EBIT | 37.64 | 41.70 | 45.84 | 50.00 | 54.11 | 58.11 | 61.91 | 65.43 | 68.61 | 71.35 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -5.69 | -6.30 | -6.93 | -7.56 | -8.18 | -8.78 | -9.36 | -9.89 | -10.37 | -10.79 |
| NOPAT | 31.95 | 35.39 | 38.91 | 42.44 | 45.93 | 49.33 | 52.55 | 55.54 | 58.23 | 60.56 |
| Capital Expenditures | -5.77 | -6.39 | -7.03 | -7.67 | -8.30 | -8.91 | -9.49 | -10.03 | -10.52 | -10.94 |
| NWC Investment | 206.64 | 213.85 | 218.27 | 219.47 | 217.07 | 210.79 | 200.41 | 185.88 | 167.25 | 144.74 |
| (+) D&A | 2.89 | 3.20 | 3.52 | 3.84 | 4.16 | 4.46 | 4.76 | 5.03 | 5.27 | 5.48 |
| Free Cash Flow | 235.72 | 246.05 | 253.67 | 258.08 | 258.87 | 255.67 | 248.23 | 236.42 | 220.24 | 199.84 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 | 4,444,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 233.67 | 236.39 | 223.38 | 208.32 | 191.53 | 173.38 | 154.30 | 134.71 | 115.02 | 95.67 | Raw: 3,955.37 2,801.77 |
Raw: 3,053.49 1,399.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,895.07 | 3,165.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14.33 | 14.33 |
| Equity Value | 3,880.74 | 3,151.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.44 | 4.44 |
| Fair Value | $873.11 | $709.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.70% | 80.70% |
| Buy Price | $168.51 | $136.84 |
| Current Price | $56.21 | $56.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 199.79% | 143.45% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 233.46 | 235.40 | 220.43 | 203.69 | 185.57 | 166.47 | 146.80 | 127.00 | 107.45 | 88.56 | Raw: 3,216.18 2,197.32 |
Raw: 2,482.85 1,048.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,275.88 | 2,763.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14.33 | 14.33 |
| Equity Value | 3,261.55 | 2,749.10 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.44 | 4.44 |
| Fair Value | $733.80 | $618.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.70% | 80.70% |
| Buy Price | $141.62 | $119.37 |
| Current Price | $56.21 | $56.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 151.95% | 112.37% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 233.89 | 237.39 | 226.41 | 213.09 | 197.73 | 180.65 | 162.26 | 142.96 | 123.20 | 103.42 | Raw: 5,120.90 3,762.08 |
Raw: 3,953.27 1,967.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,870.59 | 3,788.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14.33 | 14.33 |
| Equity Value | 4,856.26 | 3,774.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.44 | 4.44 |
| Fair Value | $1,092.58 | $849.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.70% | 80.70% |
| Buy Price | $210.87 | $163.89 |
| Current Price | $56.21 | $56.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 275.14% | 191.57% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 280.76 | 627.62 | 1,403.03 | 3,136.44 | 7,011.42 | 15,673.86 | 35,038.49 | 78,327.62 | 175,099.33 | 391,429.94 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.70 | 1.57 | 3.50 | 7.83 | 17.51 | 39.14 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 1.83 | 3.75 | 7.68 | 15.74 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $38.69 | 16.11% | $137.14 | 254.45% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $31.50 | 8.66% | $52.67 | 67.22% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $37.36 | 4.23% | $76.69 | 105.28% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $28.60 | 4.76% | $64.43 | 125.27% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $23.50 | 6.29% | $66.29 | 182.10% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $22.00 | 6.99% | $77.36 | 251.64% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $17.10 | 4.36% | $66.58 | 289.34% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $14.00 | 1.75% | $38.69 | 176.33% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $12.35 | -1.20% | $34.13 | 176.37% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $18.25 | -4.11% | $7.17 | -60.74% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $16.33 | -5.91% | $-9.27 | -156.76% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $18.25 | -5.71% | $-19.35 | -206.05% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $24.95 | -4.60% | $12.52 | -49.83% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $27.30 | -4.48% | $-12.26 | -144.92% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $25.25 | -1.74% | $26.57 | 5.24% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $27.25 | 4.99% | $38.86 | 42.60% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $27.60 | 11.82% | $-35.32 | -227.98% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $21.60 | 13.04% | $14.18 | -34.36% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $19.80 | 7.56% | $13.27 | -32.98% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $13.00 | -0.71% | $-1.75 | -113.47% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $16.70 | -4.40% | $3.29 | -80.30% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $23.90 | -1.51% | $18.67 | -21.86% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $26.80 | 12.81% | $119.48 | 345.81% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $17.33 | 22.37% | $207.98 | 1,100.14% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $14.04 | 25.12% | $205.32 | 1,362.41% |
| $519.31 - $553.16 | 5 |
| $553.16 - $587.00 | 24 |
| $587.00 - $620.85 | 97 |
| $620.85 - $654.70 | 120 |
| $654.70 - $688.54 | 155 |
| $688.54 - $722.39 | 162 |
| $722.39 - $756.24 | 143 |
| $756.24 - $790.08 | 95 |
| $790.08 - $823.93 | 72 |
| $823.93 - $857.78 | 33 |
| $857.78 - $891.62 | 33 |
| $891.62 - $925.47 | 18 |
| $925.47 - $959.32 | 15 |
| $959.32 - $993.16 | 6 |
| $993.16 - $1,027.01 | 9 |
| $1,027.01 - $1,060.85 | 3 |
| $1,060.85 - $1,094.70 | 5 |
| $1,094.70 - $1,128.55 | 3 |
| $1,128.55 - $1,162.39 | 1 |
| $1,162.39 - $1,196.24 | 1 |