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Iochpe-Maxion S.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$10.20
5Y Range90.74 – 223.29
5Y Selected157.01
(-) Safety Margin73.71%
5Y Buy Price$46.21
Upside (to Buy Price)353.03%
10Y Range110.61 – 266.34
10Y Selected188.48
(-) Safety Margin73.71%
10Y Buy Price$55.47
Upside (to Buy Price)443.81%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.5337
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8429
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1682
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0556
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3183
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4827
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8640
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7494
Safety Score0.2943

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.99%10.22%9.44%8.66%7.88%7.11%6.33%5.55%4.78%4.00%
Revenue17,017.1318,755.4920,525.7122,303.5524,062.0925,772.3527,403.9428,925.9130,307.6731,519.98
EBITDA1,680.451,852.112,026.922,202.482,376.142,545.032,706.152,856.442,992.893,112.61
D&A-658.82-726.12-794.65-863.48-931.57-997.78-1,060.95-1,119.87-1,173.36-1,220.30
EBIT1,021.631,125.991,232.271,339.001,444.571,547.251,645.201,736.571,819.531,892.31
Pro forma Taxes-390.41-430.29-470.91-511.69-552.04-591.28-628.71-663.63-695.33-723.14
NOPAT631.22695.70761.36827.30892.53955.971,016.491,072.951,124.201,169.17
Capital Expenditures-646.64-712.69-779.96-847.51-914.34-979.33-1,041.32-1,099.16-1,151.66-1,197.73
NWC Investment-149.60-154.31-157.14-157.82-156.10-151.82-144.83-135.10-122.66-107.61
(+) D&A658.82726.12794.65863.48931.57997.781,060.951,119.871,173.361,220.30
Free Cash Flow493.80554.81618.92685.46753.66822.61891.28958.561,023.251,084.12
Diluted Shares Outstanding149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25149,800,413.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.54%Terminal Growth: 3.03%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.660.620.59
PV UFCF490.68538.88564.25586.57605.35620.18630.71636.69637.94634.42
Raw: 22,111.62
17,206.63
Raw: 31,807.07
18,032.99

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,992.3623,978.67
(-) Net Debt712.68712.68
Equity Value19,279.6823,265.99
(/) Shares Out149.80149.80
Fair Value$128.70$155.31
(-) Safety Margin73.71%73.71%
Buy Price$33.84$40.83
Current Price$10.20$10.20
Upside (to Buy Price)231.72%300.31%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.54%Terminal Growth: 2.53%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF490.22536.57556.61573.24586.09594.87599.35599.40595.00586.21
Raw: 15,418.30
11,562.31
Raw: 22,178.88
11,564.57

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,305.0417,282.12
(-) Net Debt712.68712.68
Equity Value13,592.3616,569.44
(/) Shares Out149.80149.80
Fair Value$90.74$110.61
(-) Safety Margin73.71%73.71%
Buy Price$23.85$29.08
Current Price$10.20$10.20
Upside (to Buy Price)133.87%185.09%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.54%Terminal Growth: 3.53%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.63
PV UFCF491.14541.23572.07600.33625.42646.82664.04676.68684.44687.11
Raw: 38,787.01
31,331.44
Raw: 55,794.24
34,421.57

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value34,161.6440,610.86
(-) Net Debt712.68712.68
Equity Value33,448.9739,898.19
(/) Shares Out149.80149.80
Fair Value$223.29$266.34
(-) Safety Margin73.71%73.71%
Buy Price$58.70$70.02
Current Price$10.20$10.20
Upside (to Buy Price)475.52%586.48%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$10.20
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH58.44%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue24,963.8639,551.5062,663.4499,280.86157,295.69249,211.52394,838.42625,562.49991,110.291,570,266.18
Constant Implied Growth58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.503.966.279.9315.7324.9239.4862.5699.11157.03
Discount Factor0.950.860.800.750.710.660.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF2.373.385.037.4811.1316.5524.6236.6154.4480.96

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$23.3812.53%$13.53-42.11%
20182018-12-31$24.2614.76%$11.52-52.50%
20172017-12-31$23.3213.98%$-3.94-116.89%
20162016-12-31$11.417.51%$-31.50-376.06%
20152015-12-31$12.09-3.22%$-51.00-521.82%
20142014-12-31$11.99-2.50%$-0.18-101.49%
20132013-12-31$25.70-0.96%$15.10-41.26%
20122012-12-31$27.910.59%$-52.20-287.03%
20112011-12-31$25.257.01%$45.7881.29%
20102010-12-31$23.6818.30%$-26.38-211.42%
20092009-12-31$12.2926.65%$-101.06-922.29%
20082008-12-31$4.3038.65%$-69.51-1,716.40%
20072007-12-31$21.1329.16%$10.89-48.48%
20062006-12-31$7.6220.59%$5.65-25.88%
20052005-12-31$6.3815.27%$-7.24-213.47%
20042004-12-31$6.014.77%$4.19-30.30%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$185.02
Median
$153.68
10th Percentile
$110.43
90th Percentile
$272.22

Fair Value Distribution

$70.15 - $204.79
778
$204.79 - $339.43
168
$339.43 - $474.07
34
$474.07 - $608.71
7
$608.71 - $743.35
7
$743.35 - $877.99
2
$877.99 - $1,012.63
2
$1,012.63 - $1,147.26
0
$1,147.26 - $1,281.90
0
$1,281.90 - $1,416.54
0
$1,416.54 - $1,551.18
0
$1,551.18 - $1,685.82
0
$1,685.82 - $1,820.46
0
$1,820.46 - $1,955.10
0
$1,955.10 - $2,089.74
0
$2,089.74 - $2,224.38
0
$2,224.38 - $2,359.02
0
$2,359.02 - $2,493.66
0
$2,493.66 - $2,628.30
0
$2,628.30 - $2,762.94
2