Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $68.46 |
| 5Y Range | 131.05 – 195.91 |
| 5Y Selected | 163.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.53% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $61.26 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -10.52% |
| 10Y Range | 145.25 – 212.62 |
| 10Y Selected | 178.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.53% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $67.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -2.06% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5582 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8667 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0439 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5703 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0759 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6602 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0103 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5573 |
| Safety Score | 0.3747 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.07% | 8.51% | 7.94% | 7.38% | 6.82% | 6.25% | 5.69% | 5.13% | 4.56% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,011.56 | 3,267.79 | 3,527.40 | 3,787.76 | 4,045.99 | 4,299.03 | 4,543.67 | 4,776.62 | 4,994.60 | 5,194.39 |
| EBITDA | 622.61 | 675.58 | 729.25 | 783.08 | 836.47 | 888.78 | 939.36 | 987.52 | 1,032.58 | 1,073.89 |
| D&A | -81.59 | -88.53 | -95.57 | -102.62 | -109.62 | -116.47 | -123.10 | -129.41 | -135.32 | -140.73 |
| EBIT | 541.02 | 587.05 | 633.69 | 680.46 | 726.85 | 772.31 | 816.26 | 858.11 | 897.27 | 933.16 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -145.39 | -157.76 | -170.29 | -182.86 | -195.33 | -207.55 | -219.36 | -230.60 | -241.13 | -250.77 |
| NOPAT | 395.63 | 429.29 | 463.39 | 497.60 | 531.52 | 564.76 | 596.90 | 627.50 | 656.14 | 682.38 |
| Capital Expenditures | -66.14 | -71.77 | -77.47 | -83.19 | -88.86 | -94.42 | -99.79 | -104.91 | -109.70 | -114.09 |
| NWC Investment | 2.42 | 2.48 | 2.51 | 2.52 | 2.50 | 2.45 | 2.36 | 2.25 | 2.11 | 1.93 |
| (+) D&A | 81.59 | 88.53 | 95.57 | 102.62 | 109.62 | 116.47 | 123.10 | 129.41 | 135.32 | 140.73 |
| Free Cash Flow | 413.50 | 448.53 | 483.99 | 519.54 | 554.77 | 589.26 | 622.57 | 654.25 | 683.86 | 710.96 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 | 52,448,250.00 |
| Metric | Apr-26 | Apr-27 | Apr-28 | Apr-29 | Apr-30 | Apr-31 | Apr-32 | Apr-33 | Apr-34 | Apr-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 5/1/26 | 5/1/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/1/29 | 5/1/30 | 5/1/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/1/33 | 5/1/34 |
| Period End | 4/30/26 | 4/30/27 | 4/30/28 | 4/30/29 | 4/30/30 | 4/30/31 | 4/30/32 | 4/30/33 | 4/30/34 | 4/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 1/29/26 | 10/30/26 | 10/30/27 | 10/30/28 | 10/30/29 | 10/30/30 | 10/30/31 | 10/30/32 | 10/30/33 | 10/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.79 | 1.79 | 2.79 | 3.79 | 4.79 | 5.79 | 6.79 | 7.79 | 8.79 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 409.91 | 418.71 | 414.14 | 407.48 | 398.83 | 388.30 | 376.04 | 362.22 | 347.04 | 330.70 | Raw: 8,526.60 5,868.70 |
Raw: 10,927.18 4,866.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,917.77 | 8,719.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | -274.23 | -274.23 |
| Equity Value | 8,192.00 | 8,993.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 52.45 | 52.45 |
| Fair Value | $156.19 | $171.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.53% | 62.53% |
| Buy Price | $58.53 | $64.25 |
| Current Price | $68.46 | $68.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -14.51% | -6.14% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.84 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 409.54 | 415.70 | 407.43 | 397.24 | 385.27 | 371.69 | 356.68 | 340.46 | 323.23 | 305.21 | Raw: 6,926.13 4,584.13 |
Raw: 8,876.11 3,631.55 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,599.31 | 7,344.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | -274.23 | -274.23 |
| Equity Value | 6,873.55 | 7,618.24 |
| (/) Shares Out | 52.45 | 52.45 |
| Fair Value | $131.05 | $145.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.53% | 62.53% |
| Buy Price | $49.11 | $54.43 |
| Current Price | $68.46 | $68.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -28.27% | -20.50% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 410.29 | 421.77 | 421.02 | 418.09 | 412.99 | 405.81 | 396.63 | 385.59 | 372.85 | 358.58 | Raw: 11,056.74 7,916.79 |
Raw: 14,169.65 6,873.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,000.95 | 10,877.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | -274.23 | -274.23 |
| Equity Value | 10,275.19 | 11,151.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 52.45 | 52.45 |
| Fair Value | $195.91 | $212.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.53% | 62.53% |
| Buy Price | $73.41 | $79.67 |
| Current Price | $68.46 | $68.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 7.23% | 16.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,948.27 | 12,450.91 | 26,062.26 | 54,553.54 | 114,191.50 | 239,025.73 | 500,328.83 | 1,047,288.64 | 2,192,185.30 | 4,588,683.77 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% | 109.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.59 | 1.25 | 2.61 | 5.46 | 11.42 | 23.90 | 50.03 | 104.73 | 219.22 | 458.87 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.57 | 1.07 | 2.04 | 3.92 | 7.52 | 14.44 | 27.70 | 53.15 | 101.97 | 195.64 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-04-30 | $28.83 | 9.68% | $82.86 | 187.41% |
| 2019 | 2019-04-30 | $47.02 | 12.99% | $107.48 | 128.59% |
| 2018 | 2018-04-30 | $53.46 | 12.07% | $85.54 | 60.01% |
| 2017 | 2017-04-30 | $32.63 | 8.07% | $23.99 | -26.49% |
| 2016 | 2016-04-30 | $27.14 | 4.54% | $15.83 | -41.66% |
| 2015 | 2015-04-30 | $31.53 | 9.07% | $46.47 | 47.40% |
| 2014 | 2014-04-30 | $29.05 | 12.36% | $60.29 | 107.53% |
| 2013 | 2013-04-30 | $16.55 | 12.08% | $30.66 | 85.25% |
| 2012 | 2012-04-30 | $16.15 | 11.63% | $33.78 | 109.18% |
| 2011 | 2011-04-30 | $20.71 | 9.22% | $38.99 | 88.28% |
| 2010 | 2010-04-30 | $16.21 | 6.20% | $-13.52 | -183.39% |
| 2009 | 2009-04-30 | $10.59 | 8.99% | $1.39 | -86.86% |
| 2008 | 2008-04-30 | $18.66 | 5.71% | $47.81 | 156.23% |
| 2007 | 2007-04-30 | $23.57 | -0.27% | $40.25 | 70.77% |
| 2006 | 2006-04-30 | $20.98 | -3.59% | $27.52 | 31.18% |
| 2005 | 2005-04-30 | $14.40 | -1.58% | $33.23 | 130.75% |
| 2004 | 2004-04-30 | $14.98 | 7.73% | $17.98 | 20.06% |
| 2003 | 2003-04-30 | $6.88 | 17.52% | $18.49 | 168.81% |
| 2002 | 2002-04-30 | $10.50 | 16.99% | $-55.24 | -626.14% |
| 2001 | 2001-04-30 | $18.00 | 8.70% | $19.05 | 5.84% |
| 2000 | 2000-04-30 | $27.75 | -8.13% | $16.28 | -41.34% |
| 1999 | 1999-04-30 | $11.94 | -14.54% | $11.91 | -0.22% |
| 1998 | 1998-04-30 | $13.00 | -10.62% | $-0.52 | -104.04% |
| $116.78 - $131.02 | 17 |
| $131.02 - $145.25 | 104 |
| $145.25 - $159.49 | 187 |
| $159.49 - $173.72 | 249 |
| $173.72 - $187.96 | 179 |
| $187.96 - $202.20 | 111 |
| $202.20 - $216.43 | 65 |
| $216.43 - $230.67 | 36 |
| $230.67 - $244.90 | 30 |
| $244.90 - $259.14 | 13 |
| $259.14 - $273.38 | 2 |
| $273.38 - $287.61 | 3 |
| $287.61 - $301.85 | 1 |
| $301.85 - $316.08 | 1 |
| $316.08 - $330.32 | 1 |
| $330.32 - $344.55 | 0 |
| $344.55 - $358.79 | 0 |
| $358.79 - $373.03 | 0 |
| $373.03 - $387.26 | 0 |
| $387.26 - $401.50 | 0 |