Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.64 |
| 5Y Range | 1.02 – 2.40 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.09% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.70% |
| 10Y Range | 1.07 – 2.38 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.09% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.62% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9264 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8491 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4372 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2053 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3917 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0056 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6692 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2343 |
| Safety Score | 0.1981 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -3.11% | -2.32% | -1.53% | -0.74% | 0.05% | 0.84% | 1.63% | 2.42% | 3.21% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 13,706.17 | 13,388.20 | 13,183.38 | 13,085.83 | 13,092.38 | 13,202.36 | 13,417.57 | 13,742.28 | 14,183.41 | 14,750.74 |
| EBITDA | 4,283.26 | 4,183.89 | 4,119.88 | 4,089.40 | 4,091.45 | 4,125.82 | 4,193.07 | 4,294.54 | 4,432.40 | 4,609.70 |
| D&A | -2,097.54 | -2,048.88 | -2,017.53 | -2,002.60 | -2,003.61 | -2,020.44 | -2,053.37 | -2,103.07 | -2,170.57 | -2,257.40 |
| EBIT | 2,185.72 | 2,135.01 | 2,102.35 | 2,086.80 | 2,087.84 | 2,105.38 | 2,139.70 | 2,191.48 | 2,261.83 | 2,352.30 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -603.91 | -589.90 | -580.88 | -576.58 | -576.87 | -581.71 | -591.20 | -605.50 | -624.94 | -649.94 |
| NOPAT | 1,581.81 | 1,545.11 | 1,521.47 | 1,510.21 | 1,510.97 | 1,523.66 | 1,548.50 | 1,585.97 | 1,636.88 | 1,702.36 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,276.28 | -2,223.47 | -2,189.45 | -2,173.25 | -2,174.34 | -2,192.60 | -2,228.35 | -2,282.27 | -2,355.53 | -2,449.75 |
| NWC Investment | -22.00 | -15.90 | -10.24 | -4.88 | 0.33 | 5.50 | 10.76 | 16.24 | 22.06 | 28.37 |
| (+) D&A | 2,097.54 | 2,048.88 | 2,017.53 | 2,002.60 | 2,003.61 | 2,020.44 | 2,053.37 | 2,103.07 | 2,170.57 | 2,257.40 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,381.07 | 1,354.62 | 1,339.31 | 1,334.69 | 1,340.57 | 1,357.00 | 1,384.29 | 1,423.01 | 1,473.99 | 1,538.38 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 | 16,557,933,749.75 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,372.19 | 1,294.82 | 1,199.44 | 1,120.64 | 1,055.27 | 1,001.48 | 957.80 | 923.09 | 896.43 | 877.15 | Raw: 32,398.26 24,693.90 |
Raw: 37,178.82 20,525.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 30,736.26 | 31,224.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,434.46 | 6,434.46 |
| Equity Value | 24,301.80 | 24,789.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16,557.93 | 16,557.93 |
| Fair Value | $1.47 | $1.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.09% | 83.09% |
| Buy Price | $0.25 | $0.25 |
| Current Price | $4.64 | $4.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.65% | -94.54% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,370.91 | 1,286.39 | 1,180.46 | 1,092.66 | 1,019.36 | 958.41 | 908.10 | 867.06 | 834.20 | 808.68 | Raw: 23,812.19 17,450.41 |
Raw: 27,325.83 13,843.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,400.18 | 24,170.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,434.46 | 6,434.46 |
| Equity Value | 16,965.72 | 17,735.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16,557.93 | 16,557.93 |
| Fair Value | $1.02 | $1.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.09% | 83.09% |
| Buy Price | $0.17 | $0.18 |
| Current Price | $4.64 | $4.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.27% | -96.10% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,373.48 | 1,303.38 | 1,218.92 | 1,149.62 | 1,092.80 | 1,046.91 | 1,010.73 | 983.32 | 963.96 | 952.15 | Raw: 50,391.65 39,962.18 |
Raw: 57,827.26 34,818.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 46,100.38 | 45,914.22 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,434.46 | 6,434.46 |
| Equity Value | 39,665.92 | 39,479.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16,557.93 | 16,557.93 |
| Fair Value | $2.40 | $2.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.09% | 83.09% |
| Buy Price | $0.41 | $0.40 |
| Current Price | $4.64 | $4.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.27% | -91.31% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 60,630.82 | 130,564.97 | 281,164.14 | 605,470.77 | 1,303,846.43 | 2,807,758.15 | 6,046,345.41 | 13,020,456.47 | 28,038,802.80 | 60,379,946.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% | 115.34% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.06 | 13.06 | 28.12 | 60.55 | 130.38 | 280.78 | 604.63 | 1,302.05 | 2,803.88 | 6,037.99 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.89 | 11.69 | 23.61 | 47.66 | 96.23 | 194.27 | 392.22 | 791.86 | 1,598.72 | 3,227.70 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $2.54 | -3.07% | $1.70 | -33.06% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $3.05 | -4.14% | $1.62 | -46.85% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $3.37 | -4.54% | $0.98 | -70.85% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $3.92 | -3.67% | $1.31 | -66.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $3.82 | -2.09% | $1.36 | -64.29% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $4.38 | -0.74% | $1.83 | -58.18% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $3.65 | -0.37% | $2.30 | -37.09% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $3.59 | -0.38% | $2.90 | -19.36% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $3.15 | -1.81% | $2.44 | -22.64% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $3.02 | -2.64% | $3.06 | 1.27% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $3.17 | -2.09% | $2.50 | -21.25% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $2.53 | 0.01% | $2.66 | 5.25% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $3.91 | 5.00% | $3.82 | -2.41% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $3.28 | 6.61% | $3.13 | -4.53% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $2.65 | 7.69% | $3.14 | 18.32% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $2.58 | 7.23% | $3.29 | 27.66% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $2.36 | 6.61% | $3.31 | 40.36% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $2.36 | 7.72% | $1.93 | -18.11% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $2.36 | 8.75% | $-0.80 | -133.84% |
| $0.63 - $1.54 | 530 |
| $1.54 - $2.46 | 385 |
| $2.46 - $3.37 | 51 |
| $3.37 - $4.28 | 24 |
| $4.28 - $5.19 | 5 |
| $5.19 - $6.10 | 3 |
| $6.10 - $7.01 | 1 |
| $7.01 - $7.92 | 0 |
| $7.92 - $8.83 | 0 |
| $8.83 - $9.75 | 0 |
| $9.75 - $10.66 | 0 |
| $10.66 - $11.57 | 0 |
| $11.57 - $12.48 | 0 |
| $12.48 - $13.39 | 0 |
| $13.39 - $14.30 | 0 |
| $14.30 - $15.21 | 0 |
| $15.21 - $16.13 | 0 |
| $16.13 - $17.04 | 0 |
| $17.04 - $17.95 | 0 |
| $17.95 - $18.86 | 1 |