Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $175.00 |
| 5Y Range | 818.14 – 1,574.08 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,196.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.34% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $432.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 147.22% |
| 10Y Range | 888.88 – 1,660.33 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,274.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.34% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $461.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 163.44% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5801 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9137 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6432 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4171 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5740 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8777 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0116 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2883 |
| Safety Score | 0.3617 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.90% | 4.80% | 4.70% | 4.60% | 4.50% | 4.40% | 4.30% | 4.20% | 4.10% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 283.46 | 297.07 | 311.05 | 325.37 | 340.02 | 354.98 | 370.25 | 385.81 | 401.63 | 417.69 |
| EBITDA | 77.50 | 81.23 | 85.05 | 88.96 | 92.97 | 97.06 | 101.23 | 105.49 | 109.81 | 114.21 |
| D&A | -11.08 | -11.61 | -12.16 | -12.71 | -13.29 | -13.87 | -14.47 | -15.08 | -15.70 | -16.32 |
| EBIT | 66.43 | 69.62 | 72.89 | 76.25 | 79.68 | 83.19 | 86.77 | 90.41 | 94.12 | 97.88 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -13.22 | -13.86 | -14.51 | -15.18 | -15.86 | -16.56 | -17.27 | -18.00 | -18.73 | -19.48 |
| NOPAT | 53.20 | 55.76 | 58.38 | 61.07 | 63.82 | 66.63 | 69.49 | 72.41 | 75.38 | 78.40 |
| Capital Expenditures | -11.32 | -11.86 | -12.42 | -12.99 | -13.58 | -14.17 | -14.78 | -15.41 | -16.04 | -16.68 |
| NWC Investment | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| (+) D&A | 11.08 | 11.61 | 12.16 | 12.71 | 13.29 | 13.87 | 14.47 | 15.08 | 15.70 | 16.32 |
| Free Cash Flow | 52.92 | 55.46 | 58.07 | 60.74 | 63.48 | 66.27 | 69.13 | 72.03 | 74.99 | 77.99 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 | 1,299,101.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.57 | 53.79 | 52.69 | 51.57 | 50.43 | 49.26 | 48.07 | 46.87 | 45.65 | 44.42 | Raw: 1,470.74 1,130.12 |
Raw: 1,806.89 995.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,391.16 | 1,490.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3.79 | 3.79 |
| Equity Value | 1,387.37 | 1,487.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Fair Value | $1,067.94 | $1,144.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.34% | 66.34% |
| Buy Price | $359.47 | $385.30 |
| Current Price | $175.00 | $175.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 105.41% | 120.17% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.52 | 53.56 | 51.98 | 50.40 | 48.83 | 47.25 | 45.69 | 44.13 | 42.59 | 41.06 | Raw: 1,092.86 809.35 |
Raw: 1,342.65 680.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,066.64 | 1,158.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3.79 | 3.79 |
| Equity Value | 1,062.84 | 1,154.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Fair Value | $818.14 | $888.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.34% | 66.34% |
| Buy Price | $275.39 | $299.20 |
| Current Price | $175.00 | $175.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 57.36% | 70.97% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.61 | 54.02 | 53.42 | 52.78 | 52.09 | 51.37 | 50.60 | 49.80 | 48.97 | 48.10 | Raw: 2,236.57 1,783.76 |
Raw: 2,747.76 1,646.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,048.69 | 2,160.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3.79 | 3.79 |
| Equity Value | 2,044.90 | 2,156.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Fair Value | $1,574.08 | $1,660.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.34% | 66.34% |
| Buy Price | $529.84 | $558.87 |
| Current Price | $175.00 | $175.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 202.76% | 219.35% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 978.40 | 1,750.78 | 3,132.90 | 5,606.11 | 10,031.73 | 17,951.07 | 32,122.16 | 57,480.31 | 102,856.92 | 184,055.12 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 3.21 | 5.75 | 10.29 | 18.41 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 1.17 | 1.96 | 3.27 | 5.48 | 9.18 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $68.50 | 5.12% | $-128.68 | -287.85% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $63.00 | 7.51% | $-83.24 | -232.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $55.03 | 7.52% | $89.67 | 62.95% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $44.30 | 8.47% | $-54.10 | -222.12% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $32.00 | 7.68% | $59.72 | 86.63% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $31.65 | 14.39% | $114.73 | 262.48% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $22.73 | 19.06% | $-46.90 | -306.35% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $21.00 | 13.31% | $105.34 | 401.64% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $18.05 | 5.95% | $130.49 | 622.95% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $15.00 | 2.62% | $1.99 | -86.72% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $14.30 | 11.88% | $16.91 | 18.26% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $15.86 | 43.36% | $196.05 | 1,136.15% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $16.50 | 50.37% | $171.92 | 941.92% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $16.50 | 27.00% | $56.85 | 244.53% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $16.50 | 2.14% | $51.44 | 211.73% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $16.50 | -17.65% | $6.76 | -59.03% |
| $624.01 - $840.79 | 50 |
| $840.79 - $1,057.57 | 310 |
| $1,057.57 - $1,274.36 | 293 |
| $1,274.36 - $1,491.14 | 164 |
| $1,491.14 - $1,707.92 | 96 |
| $1,707.92 - $1,924.71 | 37 |
| $1,924.71 - $2,141.49 | 19 |
| $2,141.49 - $2,358.27 | 10 |
| $2,358.27 - $2,575.06 | 6 |
| $2,575.06 - $2,791.84 | 6 |
| $2,791.84 - $3,008.63 | 3 |
| $3,008.63 - $3,225.41 | 3 |
| $3,225.41 - $3,442.19 | 1 |
| $3,442.19 - $3,658.98 | 1 |
| $3,658.98 - $3,875.76 | 0 |
| $3,875.76 - $4,092.54 | 0 |
| $4,092.54 - $4,309.33 | 0 |
| $4,309.33 - $4,526.11 | 0 |
| $4,526.11 - $4,742.89 | 0 |
| $4,742.89 - $4,959.68 | 1 |