Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $45.02 |
| 5Y Range | 27.83 – 41.97 |
| 5Y Selected | 34.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.19% |
| 10Y Range | 27.13 – 39.18 |
| 10Y Selected | 33.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8346 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6745 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7463 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0252 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6559 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0214 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5774 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5284 |
| Safety Score | 0.1653 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -7.17% | -5.93% | -4.69% | -3.44% | -2.20% | -0.96% | 0.28% | 1.52% | 2.76% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 25,834.61 | 24,303.69 | 23,165.03 | 22,367.14 | 21,874.24 | 21,663.61 | 21,723.79 | 22,053.67 | 22,662.19 | 23,568.68 |
| EBITDA | 4,367.77 | 4,108.94 | 3,916.43 | 3,781.53 | 3,698.20 | 3,662.59 | 3,672.76 | 3,728.54 | 3,831.42 | 3,984.67 |
| D&A | -1,330.63 | -1,251.78 | -1,193.13 | -1,152.04 | -1,126.65 | -1,115.80 | -1,118.90 | -1,135.89 | -1,167.24 | -1,213.93 |
| EBIT | 3,037.13 | 2,857.16 | 2,723.29 | 2,629.49 | 2,571.55 | 2,546.79 | 2,553.86 | 2,592.64 | 2,664.18 | 2,770.75 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -637.80 | -600.00 | -571.89 | -552.19 | -540.03 | -534.83 | -536.31 | -544.45 | -559.48 | -581.86 |
| NOPAT | 2,399.33 | 2,257.15 | 2,151.40 | 2,077.30 | 2,031.52 | 2,011.96 | 2,017.55 | 2,048.19 | 2,104.70 | 2,188.89 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,019.46 | -959.05 | -914.11 | -882.63 | -863.18 | -854.87 | -857.24 | -870.26 | -894.27 | -930.04 |
| NWC Investment | 116.61 | 89.51 | 66.58 | 46.65 | 28.82 | 12.32 | -3.52 | -19.29 | -35.58 | -53.00 |
| (+) D&A | 1,330.63 | 1,251.78 | 1,193.13 | 1,152.04 | 1,126.65 | 1,115.80 | 1,118.90 | 1,135.89 | 1,167.24 | 1,213.93 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,827.12 | 2,639.40 | 2,497.00 | 2,393.36 | 2,323.82 | 2,285.21 | 2,275.69 | 2,294.53 | 2,342.09 | 2,419.77 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 | 995,250,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,802.61 | 2,535.77 | 2,198.90 | 1,931.88 | 1,719.32 | 1,549.76 | 1,414.60 | 1,307.37 | 1,223.18 | 1,158.36 | Raw: 35,175.54 24,916.46 |
Raw: 36,627.98 16,787.06 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 36,104.94 | 34,628.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,929.00 | 2,929.00 |
| Equity Value | 33,175.94 | 31,699.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 995.25 | 995.25 |
| Fair Value | $33.33 | $31.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.47% | 83.47% |
| Buy Price | $5.51 | $5.26 |
| Current Price | $45.02 | $45.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.76% | -88.31% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,800.06 | 2,525.15 | 2,169.81 | 1,889.00 | 1,665.89 | 1,487.96 | 1,345.85 | 1,232.54 | 1,142.69 | 1,072.31 | Raw: 28,647.65 19,572.33 |
Raw: 29,830.55 12,598.47 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 30,622.23 | 29,929.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,929.00 | 2,929.00 |
| Equity Value | 27,693.23 | 27,000.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 995.25 | 995.25 |
| Fair Value | $27.83 | $27.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.47% | 83.47% |
| Buy Price | $4.60 | $4.48 |
| Current Price | $45.02 | $45.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.78% | -90.04% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,805.20 | 2,546.54 | 2,228.67 | 1,976.14 | 1,774.98 | 1,614.73 | 1,487.54 | 1,387.50 | 1,310.16 | 1,252.21 | Raw: 45,426.02 33,372.35 |
Raw: 47,301.72 23,543.48 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 44,703.86 | 41,927.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,929.00 | 2,929.00 |
| Equity Value | 41,774.86 | 38,998.13 |
| (/) Shares Out | 995.25 | 995.25 |
| Fair Value | $41.97 | $39.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.47% | 83.47% |
| Buy Price | $6.94 | $6.48 |
| Current Price | $45.02 | $45.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.59% | -85.61% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 60,668.55 | 132,823.55 | 290,794.72 | 636,645.90 | 1,393,828.64 | 3,051,552.33 | 6,680,858.29 | 14,626,610.53 | 32,022,492.66 | 70,107,837.63 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% | 118.93% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.07 | 13.28 | 29.08 | 63.66 | 139.38 | 305.16 | 668.09 | 1,462.66 | 3,202.25 | 7,010.78 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.64 | 10.72 | 21.51 | 43.18 | 86.64 | 173.87 | 348.91 | 700.19 | 1,405.10 | 2,819.70 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $25.63 | -1.77% | $22.73 | -11.32% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $21.50 | -14.17% | $5.57 | -74.09% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $31.64 | -23.93% | $-19.44 | -161.46% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $45.48 | -15.26% | $-1.14 | -102.52% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $32.31 | 0.49% | $26.16 | -19.03% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $39.25 | 7.55% | $63.40 | 61.52% |
| $22.77 - $24.67 | 18 |
| $24.67 - $26.58 | 62 |
| $26.58 - $28.48 | 134 |
| $28.48 - $30.38 | 160 |
| $30.38 - $32.29 | 173 |
| $32.29 - $34.19 | 145 |
| $34.19 - $36.10 | 93 |
| $36.10 - $38.00 | 70 |
| $38.00 - $39.90 | 49 |
| $39.90 - $41.81 | 39 |
| $41.81 - $43.71 | 22 |
| $43.71 - $45.62 | 11 |
| $45.62 - $47.52 | 8 |
| $47.52 - $49.42 | 5 |
| $49.42 - $51.33 | 0 |
| $51.33 - $53.23 | 5 |
| $53.23 - $55.14 | 3 |
| $55.14 - $57.04 | 2 |
| $57.04 - $58.94 | 0 |
| $58.94 - $60.85 | 1 |