Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $35.01 |
| 5Y Range | 110.75 – 223.73 |
| 5Y Selected | 167.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.64% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $54.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 55.10% |
| 10Y Range | 116.75 – 227.86 |
| 10Y Selected | 172.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.64% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $55.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 59.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6126 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8808 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1129 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6561 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4574 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7992 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2191 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0108 |
| Safety Score | 0.3247 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.52% | 5.35% | 5.18% | 5.01% | 4.84% | 4.68% | 4.51% | 4.34% | 4.17% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,406.22 | 1,481.48 | 1,558.27 | 1,636.40 | 1,715.68 | 1,795.91 | 1,876.85 | 1,958.27 | 2,039.91 | 2,121.50 |
| EBITDA | 817.81 | 861.58 | 906.23 | 951.67 | 997.78 | 1,044.43 | 1,091.51 | 1,138.86 | 1,186.33 | 1,233.79 |
| D&A | -34.31 | -36.14 | -38.02 | -39.92 | -41.86 | -43.82 | -45.79 | -47.78 | -49.77 | -51.76 |
| EBIT | 783.50 | 825.43 | 868.21 | 911.75 | 955.92 | 1,000.62 | 1,045.71 | 1,091.08 | 1,136.56 | 1,182.03 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -142.86 | -150.50 | -158.30 | -166.24 | -174.30 | -182.45 | -190.67 | -198.94 | -207.23 | -215.52 |
| NOPAT | 640.64 | 674.93 | 709.91 | 745.50 | 781.62 | 818.17 | 855.05 | 892.14 | 929.33 | 966.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | -43.81 | -46.16 | -48.55 | -50.99 | -53.46 | -55.95 | -58.48 | -61.01 | -63.56 | -66.10 |
| NWC Investment | 95.41 | 97.60 | 99.57 | 101.32 | 102.81 | 104.03 | 104.96 | 105.58 | 105.87 | 105.81 |
| (+) D&A | 34.31 | 36.14 | 38.02 | 39.92 | 41.86 | 43.82 | 45.79 | 47.78 | 49.77 | 51.76 |
| Free Cash Flow | 726.55 | 762.51 | 798.95 | 835.76 | 872.84 | 910.07 | 947.32 | 984.48 | 1,021.41 | 1,057.98 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 | 141,938,454.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 721.56 | 738.74 | 722.54 | 705.54 | 687.82 | 669.44 | 650.48 | 631.01 | 611.13 | 590.89 | Raw: 22,060.25 16,795.68 |
Raw: 26,739.46 14,428.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,371.88 | 21,157.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | -416.71 | -416.71 |
| Equity Value | 20,788.59 | 21,574.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 141.94 | 141.94 |
| Fair Value | $146.46 | $152.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.64% | 69.64% |
| Buy Price | $44.47 | $46.15 |
| Current Price | $35.01 | $35.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 27.01% | 31.81% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 720.89 | 735.59 | 712.81 | 689.60 | 666.06 | 642.26 | 618.30 | 594.25 | 570.20 | 546.22 | Raw: 16,048.97 11,777.55 |
Raw: 19,453.12 9,658.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,302.49 | 16,154.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | -416.71 | -416.71 |
| Equity Value | 15,719.20 | 16,571.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 141.94 | 141.94 |
| Fair Value | $110.75 | $116.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.64% | 69.64% |
| Buy Price | $33.62 | $35.45 |
| Current Price | $35.01 | $35.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -3.96% | 1.24% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 722.24 | 741.93 | 732.50 | 722.01 | 710.50 | 698.03 | 684.65 | 670.43 | 655.41 | 639.68 | Raw: 35,068.67 27,709.94 |
Raw: 42,507.10 24,947.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,339.13 | 31,925.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | -416.71 | -416.71 |
| Equity Value | 31,755.84 | 32,341.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 141.94 | 141.94 |
| Fair Value | $223.73 | $227.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.64% | 69.64% |
| Buy Price | $67.92 | $69.18 |
| Current Price | $35.01 | $35.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 94.01% | 97.59% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,789.65 | 6,257.65 | 14,036.93 | 31,487.14 | 70,630.83 | 158,436.53 | 355,399.13 | 797,218.56 | 1,788,292.03 | 4,011,432.42 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% | 124.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.28 | 0.63 | 1.40 | 3.15 | 7.06 | 15.84 | 35.54 | 79.72 | 178.83 | 401.14 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.27 | 0.53 | 1.11 | 2.32 | 4.85 | 10.16 | 21.26 | 44.53 | 93.23 | 195.22 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $20.98 | 2.11% | $98.58 | 369.86% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.23 | 8.62% | $-8.57 | -192.90% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $14.66 | 15.75% | $72.93 | 397.49% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $14.56 | 15.12% | $31.41 | 115.74% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $21.46 | 13.86% | $40.30 | 87.81% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $16.55 | 7.74% | $10.91 | -34.07% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $18.20 | 8.30% | $44.52 | 144.64% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $10.28 | 14.37% | $26.92 | 161.90% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $5.69 | 12.96% | $8.08 | 42.05% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.22 | 30.63% | $35.42 | 469.47% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $8.47 | 30.91% | $35.95 | 324.44% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $3.43 | 25.13% | $35.59 | 937.71% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $8.03 | 21.87% | $15.30 | 90.57% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $9.16 | -3.51% | $9.84 | 7.42% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $5.99 | -13.21% | $3.46 | -42.31% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $3.62 | -28.58% | $0.23 | -93.70% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $3.39 | 30.88% | $17.30 | 410.20% |
| $55.68 - $83.70 | 1 |
| $83.70 - $111.71 | 57 |
| $111.71 - $139.72 | 321 |
| $139.72 - $167.74 | 282 |
| $167.74 - $195.75 | 156 |
| $195.75 - $223.76 | 95 |
| $223.76 - $251.78 | 41 |
| $251.78 - $279.79 | 19 |
| $279.79 - $307.80 | 13 |
| $307.80 - $335.82 | 3 |
| $335.82 - $363.83 | 2 |
| $363.83 - $391.84 | 2 |
| $391.84 - $419.86 | 1 |
| $419.86 - $447.87 | 3 |
| $447.87 - $475.88 | 2 |
| $475.88 - $503.90 | 0 |
| $503.90 - $531.91 | 0 |
| $531.91 - $559.92 | 1 |
| $559.92 - $587.94 | 0 |
| $587.94 - $615.95 | 1 |