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Yongjin Technology Group Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$16.91
5Y Range-121.47 – -47.74
5Y Selected-84.61
(-) Safety Margin56.09%
5Y Buy Price$-40.15
Upside (to Buy Price)-337.41%
10Y Range-111.44 – -46.43
10Y Selected-78.94
(-) Safety Margin56.09%
10Y Buy Price$-37.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-321.50%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8343
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9513
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4199
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8278
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8630
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9088
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0108
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1874
Safety Score0.4745

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth15.40%14.13%12.87%11.60%10.33%9.07%7.80%6.53%5.27%4.00%
Revenue48,306.7355,133.3962,226.5269,444.1276,619.3983,565.6690,083.3395,968.44101,022.61105,063.51
EBITDA1,500.221,712.231,932.512,156.662,379.502,595.222,797.642,980.403,137.373,262.86
D&A-519.57-592.99-669.28-746.91-824.09-898.80-968.90-1,032.20-1,086.56-1,130.02
EBIT980.651,119.231,263.231,409.751,555.411,696.421,828.731,948.202,050.812,132.84
Pro forma Taxes-188.80-215.48-243.20-271.41-299.45-326.60-352.07-375.07-394.83-410.62
NOPAT791.85903.751,020.031,138.341,255.961,369.821,476.661,573.131,655.981,722.22
Capital Expenditures-1,661.82-1,896.66-2,140.68-2,388.97-2,635.81-2,874.77-3,098.99-3,301.45-3,475.32-3,614.33
NWC Investment-286.79-303.73-315.58-321.12-319.24-309.05-289.98-261.84-224.87-179.79
(+) D&A519.57592.99669.28746.91824.09898.80968.901,032.201,086.561,130.02
Free Cash Flow-637.18-703.64-766.95-824.84-875.00-915.20-943.41-957.95-957.64-941.87
Diluted Shares Outstanding377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75377,986,505.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.35%Terminal Growth: 3.09%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-633.27-684.00-701.02-708.92-707.14-695.46-674.10-643.62-605.00-559.51
Raw: -27,713.16
-21,717.59
Raw: -29,831.07
-17,183.61

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-25,151.95-23,795.65
(-) Net Debt407.88407.88
Equity Value-25,559.82-24,203.53
(/) Shares Out377.99377.99
Fair Value$-67.62$-64.03
(-) Safety Margin56.09%56.09%
Buy Price$-29.69$-28.12
Current Price$16.91$16.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-275.59%-266.27%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.35%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-632.68-681.06-691.51-692.79-684.61-667.03-640.51-605.86-564.20-516.92
Raw: -18,878.95
-14,256.33
Raw: -20,321.73
-10,764.35

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-17,638.97-17,141.51
(-) Net Debt407.88407.88
Equity Value-18,046.85-17,549.39
(/) Shares Out377.99377.99
Fair Value$-47.74$-46.43
(-) Safety Margin56.09%56.09%
Buy Price$-20.96$-20.39
Current Price$16.91$16.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-223.98%-220.56%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.35%Terminal Growth: 3.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF-633.87-686.98-710.76-725.59-730.63-725.39-709.78-684.12-649.18-606.06
Raw: -51,648.02
-42,017.19
Raw: -55,595.08
-34,853.36

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-45,505.02-41,715.73
(-) Net Debt407.88407.88
Equity Value-45,912.90-42,123.61
(/) Shares Out377.99377.99
Fair Value$-121.47$-111.44
(-) Safety Margin56.09%56.09%
Buy Price$-53.34$-48.93
Current Price$16.91$16.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-415.41%-389.38%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$16.91
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH59.46%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue67,709.24107,969.46172,168.59274,540.80437,783.99698,092.321,113,181.151,775,083.672,830,556.394,513,617.94
Constant Implied Growth59.46%59.46%59.46%59.46%59.46%59.46%59.46%59.46%59.46%59.46%
Implied Free Cash Flow6.7710.8017.2227.4543.7869.81111.32177.51283.06451.36
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF6.439.2813.9120.8631.2846.9070.33105.45158.11237.06

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$18.7313.87%$7.07-62.24%
20182018-12-31$22.3723.23%$95.50326.92%
20172017-12-31$22.3719.69%$49.74122.33%
20162016-12-31$22.3713.10%$-9.30-141.58%
20152015-12-31$22.3712.50%$-16.69-174.62%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-72.76
Median
$-63.77
10th Percentile
$-101.46
90th Percentile
$-46.35

Fair Value Distribution

$-628.58 - $-598.90
2
$-598.90 - $-569.22
0
$-569.22 - $-539.54
0
$-539.54 - $-509.86
1
$-509.86 - $-480.18
0
$-480.18 - $-450.50
0
$-450.50 - $-420.82
1
$-420.82 - $-391.14
1
$-391.14 - $-361.46
0
$-361.46 - $-331.78
0
$-331.78 - $-302.10
0
$-302.10 - $-272.42
1
$-272.42 - $-242.74
1
$-242.74 - $-213.06
5
$-213.06 - $-183.38
2
$-183.38 - $-153.70
17
$-153.70 - $-124.02
17
$-124.02 - $-94.34
78
$-94.34 - $-64.66
355
$-64.66 - $-34.98
519