| Current Price | $64.57 |
| 5Y Range | 55.13 – 87.85 |
| 5Y Selected | 71.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.11% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $15.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.76% |
| 10Y Range | 63.89 – 98.57 |
| 10Y Selected | 81.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.11% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $17.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.46% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0588 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3371 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0273 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3266 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1644 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6320 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1574 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5450 |
| Safety Score | 0.2189 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.14% | 7.68% | 7.22% | 6.76% | 6.30% | 5.84% | 5.38% | 4.92% | 4.46% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 8,465.45 | 9,115.84 | 9,774.23 | 10,435.18 | 11,092.78 | 11,740.76 | 12,372.54 | 12,981.35 | 13,560.37 | 14,102.78 |
| EBITDA | 1,562.27 | 1,682.30 | 1,803.80 | 1,925.78 | 2,047.13 | 2,166.72 | 2,283.31 | 2,395.66 | 2,502.52 | 2,602.62 |
| D&A | -161.03 | -173.41 | -185.93 | -198.50 | -211.01 | -223.34 | -235.36 | -246.94 | -257.95 | -268.27 |
| EBIT | 1,401.24 | 1,508.89 | 1,617.87 | 1,727.27 | 1,836.12 | 1,943.38 | 2,047.95 | 2,148.73 | 2,244.57 | 2,334.35 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -389.28 | -419.19 | -449.46 | -479.86 | -510.10 | -539.89 | -568.95 | -596.94 | -623.57 | -648.51 |
| NOPAT | 1,011.95 | 1,089.70 | 1,168.41 | 1,247.41 | 1,326.02 | 1,403.48 | 1,479.01 | 1,551.78 | 1,621.00 | 1,685.84 |
| Capital Expenditures | -198.24 | -213.47 | -228.89 | -244.37 | -259.76 | -274.94 | -289.73 | -303.99 | -317.55 | -330.25 |
| NWC Investment | -68.23 | -69.62 | -70.47 | -70.75 | -70.39 | -69.36 | -67.62 | -65.17 | -61.98 | -58.06 |
| (+) D&A | 161.03 | 173.41 | 185.93 | 198.50 | 211.01 | 223.34 | 235.36 | 246.94 | 257.95 | 268.27 |
| Free Cash Flow | 906.52 | 980.02 | 1,054.98 | 1,130.81 | 1,206.89 | 1,282.53 | 1,357.01 | 1,429.57 | 1,499.43 | 1,565.80 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 | 212,500,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 898.66 | 941.54 | 929.03 | 912.77 | 892.93 | 869.77 | 843.53 | 814.53 | 783.09 | 749.56 | Raw: 17,794.44 12,604.62 |
Raw: 23,086.31 10,580.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,179.56 | 19,216.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,739.25 | 2,739.25 |
| Equity Value | 14,440.31 | 16,476.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 212.50 | 212.50 |
| Fair Value | $67.95 | $77.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.11% | 78.11% |
| Buy Price | $14.88 | $16.97 |
| Current Price | $64.57 | $64.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.96% | -73.71% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 897.84 | 937.60 | 916.74 | 892.51 | 865.19 | 835.08 | 802.54 | 767.91 | 731.56 | 693.88 | Raw: 14,556.38 9,945.05 |
Raw: 18,885.28 7,975.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,454.92 | 16,316.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,739.25 | 2,739.25 |
| Equity Value | 11,715.67 | 13,577.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 212.50 | 212.50 |
| Fair Value | $55.13 | $63.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.11% | 78.11% |
| Buy Price | $12.07 | $13.99 |
| Current Price | $64.57 | $64.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.31% | -78.34% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 899.49 | 945.54 | 941.61 | 933.68 | 921.84 | 906.23 | 887.03 | 864.45 | 838.77 | 810.29 | Raw: 22,821.68 16,766.00 |
Raw: 29,608.59 14,737.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,408.16 | 23,686.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,739.25 | 2,739.25 |
| Equity Value | 18,668.91 | 20,946.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 212.50 | 212.50 |
| Fair Value | $87.85 | $98.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.11% | 78.11% |
| Buy Price | $19.23 | $21.58 |
| Current Price | $64.57 | $64.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.22% | -66.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 17,021.84 | 38,139.15 | 85,454.60 | 191,469.63 | 429,006.97 | 961,233.28 | 2,153,739.85 | 4,825,670.76 | 10,812,400.73 | 24,226,271.42 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.70 | 3.81 | 8.55 | 19.15 | 42.90 | 96.12 | 215.37 | 482.57 | 1,081.24 | 2,422.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.58 | 3.08 | 6.32 | 12.98 | 26.67 | 54.77 | 112.48 | 231.01 | 474.43 | 974.37 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $47.99 | 5.60% | $36.97 | -22.96% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $29.24 | 11.31% | $59.24 | 102.60% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $43.94 | 13.77% | $44.12 | 0.42% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $31.62 | 8.30% | $30.65 | -3.06% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $28.30 | 3.18% | $21.95 | -22.43% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $22.16 | 1.80% | $16.28 | -26.56% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $20.02 | 0.02% | $16.06 | -19.78% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $14.65 | 0.50% | $0.62 | -95.74% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $9.21 | -0.48% | $-3.08 | -133.49% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $11.13 | 0.49% | $7.63 | -31.42% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $12.14 | 3.14% | $21.26 | 75.16% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $9.79 | 1.38% | $18.71 | 91.08% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $19.00 | -4.14% | $26.00 | 36.86% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $26.26 | -10.17% | $11.96 | -54.44% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $26.54 | -11.59% | $16.21 | -38.92% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $32.12 | -7.73% | $20.43 | -36.40% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $24.10 | 0.72% | $30.35 | 25.93% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $18.51 | 8.38% | $30.36 | 64.02% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $21.54 | 15.49% | $30.86 | 43.27% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $22.58 | 17.70% | $17.77 | -21.30% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $22.31 | 13.93% | $-46.10 | -306.65% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $25.28 | 9.57% | $-8.08 | -131.96% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $22.36 | 11.43% | $0.70 | -96.89% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $15.83 | 16.17% | $0.24 | -98.51% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $13.79 | 14.62% | $8.94 | -35.20% |
| 1994 | 1994-12-31 | $9.95 | 9.06% | $3.46 | -65.19% |
| 1993 | 1993-12-31 | $16.27 | -7.16% | $-1.00 | -106.12% |
| 1992 | 1992-12-31 | $13.02 | -10.39% | $-2.45 | -118.80% |
| 1991 | 1991-12-31 | $10.33 | -6.25% | $0.41 | -96.03% |
| 1990 | 1990-12-31 | $7.53 | -0.87% | $-3.04 | -140.36% |
| 1989 | 1989-12-31 | $10.99 | 7.47% | $-0.09 | -100.85% |
| 1988 | 1988-12-31 | $11.15 | 5.45% | $-3.30 | -129.60% |
| $51.16 - $56.38 | 12 |
| $56.38 - $61.61 | 64 |
| $61.61 - $66.83 | 112 |
| $66.83 - $72.06 | 145 |
| $72.06 - $77.29 | 166 |
| $77.29 - $82.51 | 144 |
| $82.51 - $87.74 | 125 |
| $87.74 - $92.97 | 80 |
| $92.97 - $98.19 | 53 |
| $98.19 - $103.42 | 34 |
| $103.42 - $108.64 | 30 |
| $108.64 - $113.87 | 15 |
| $113.87 - $119.10 | 7 |
| $119.10 - $124.32 | 2 |
| $124.32 - $129.55 | 5 |
| $129.55 - $134.78 | 1 |
| $134.78 - $140.00 | 2 |
| $140.00 - $145.23 | 0 |
| $145.23 - $150.45 | 2 |
| $150.45 - $155.68 | 1 |