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Masco Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$64.57
5Y Range55.13 – 87.85
5Y Selected71.49
(-) Safety Margin78.11%
5Y Buy Price$15.65
Upside (to Buy Price)-75.76%
10Y Range63.89 – 98.57
10Y Selected81.23
(-) Safety Margin78.11%
10Y Buy Price$17.78
Upside (to Buy Price)-72.46%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0588
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3371
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0273
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.3266
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1644
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6320
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1574
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5450
Safety Score0.2189

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth8.14%7.68%7.22%6.76%6.30%5.84%5.38%4.92%4.46%4.00%
Revenue8,465.459,115.849,774.2310,435.1811,092.7811,740.7612,372.5412,981.3513,560.3714,102.78
EBITDA1,562.271,682.301,803.801,925.782,047.132,166.722,283.312,395.662,502.522,602.62
D&A-161.03-173.41-185.93-198.50-211.01-223.34-235.36-246.94-257.95-268.27
EBIT1,401.241,508.891,617.871,727.271,836.121,943.382,047.952,148.732,244.572,334.35
Pro forma Taxes-389.28-419.19-449.46-479.86-510.10-539.89-568.95-596.94-623.57-648.51
NOPAT1,011.951,089.701,168.411,247.411,326.021,403.481,479.011,551.781,621.001,685.84
Capital Expenditures-198.24-213.47-228.89-244.37-259.76-274.94-289.73-303.99-317.55-330.25
NWC Investment-68.23-69.62-70.47-70.75-70.39-69.36-67.62-65.17-61.98-58.06
(+) D&A161.03173.41185.93198.50211.01223.34235.36246.94257.95268.27
Free Cash Flow906.52980.021,054.981,130.811,206.891,282.531,357.011,429.571,499.431,565.80
Diluted Shares Outstanding212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00212,500,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.17%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF898.66941.54929.03912.77892.93869.77843.53814.53783.09749.56
Raw: 17,794.44
12,604.62
Raw: 23,086.31
10,580.74

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,179.5619,216.16
(-) Net Debt2,739.252,739.25
Equity Value14,440.3116,476.91
(/) Shares Out212.50212.50
Fair Value$67.95$77.54
(-) Safety Margin78.11%78.11%
Buy Price$14.88$16.97
Current Price$64.57$64.57
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.96%-73.71%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.67%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF897.84937.60916.74892.51865.19835.08802.54767.91731.56693.88
Raw: 14,556.38
9,945.05
Raw: 18,885.28
7,975.90

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,454.9216,316.74
(-) Net Debt2,739.252,739.25
Equity Value11,715.6713,577.49
(/) Shares Out212.50212.50
Fair Value$55.13$63.89
(-) Safety Margin78.11%78.11%
Buy Price$12.07$13.99
Current Price$64.57$64.57
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.31%-78.34%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.67%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF899.49945.54941.61933.68921.84906.23887.03864.45838.77810.29
Raw: 22,821.68
16,766.00
Raw: 29,608.59
14,737.08

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value21,408.1623,686.01
(-) Net Debt2,739.252,739.25
Equity Value18,668.9120,946.76
(/) Shares Out212.50212.50
Fair Value$87.85$98.57
(-) Safety Margin78.11%78.11%
Buy Price$19.23$21.58
Current Price$64.57$64.57
Upside (to Buy Price)-70.22%-66.58%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$64.57
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH124.06%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue17,021.8438,139.1585,454.60191,469.63429,006.97961,233.282,153,739.854,825,670.7610,812,400.7324,226,271.42
Constant Implied Growth124.06%124.06%124.06%124.06%124.06%124.06%124.06%124.06%124.06%124.06%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.703.818.5519.1542.9096.12215.37482.571,081.242,422.63
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF1.583.086.3212.9826.6754.77112.48231.01474.43974.37

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$47.995.60%$36.97-22.96%
20182018-12-31$29.2411.31%$59.24102.60%
20172017-12-31$43.9413.77%$44.120.42%
20162016-12-31$31.628.30%$30.65-3.06%
20152015-12-31$28.303.18%$21.95-22.43%
20142014-12-31$22.161.80%$16.28-26.56%
20132013-12-31$20.020.02%$16.06-19.78%
20122012-12-31$14.650.50%$0.62-95.74%
20112011-12-31$9.21-0.48%$-3.08-133.49%
20102010-12-31$11.130.49%$7.63-31.42%
20092009-12-31$12.143.14%$21.2675.16%
20082008-12-31$9.791.38%$18.7191.08%
20072007-12-31$19.00-4.14%$26.0036.86%
20062006-12-31$26.26-10.17%$11.96-54.44%
20052005-12-31$26.54-11.59%$16.21-38.92%
20042004-12-31$32.12-7.73%$20.43-36.40%
20032003-12-31$24.100.72%$30.3525.93%
20022002-12-31$18.518.38%$30.3664.02%
20012001-12-31$21.5415.49%$30.8643.27%
20002000-12-31$22.5817.70%$17.77-21.30%
19991999-12-31$22.3113.93%$-46.10-306.65%
19981998-12-31$25.289.57%$-8.08-131.96%
19971997-12-31$22.3611.43%$0.70-96.89%
19961996-12-31$15.8316.17%$0.24-98.51%
19951995-12-31$13.7914.62%$8.94-35.20%
19941994-12-31$9.959.06%$3.46-65.19%
19931993-12-31$16.27-7.16%$-1.00-106.12%
19921992-12-31$13.02-10.39%$-2.45-118.80%
19911991-12-31$10.33-6.25%$0.41-96.03%
19901990-12-31$7.53-0.87%$-3.04-140.36%
19891989-12-31$10.997.47%$-0.09-100.85%
19881988-12-31$11.155.45%$-3.30-129.60%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$79.29
Median
$77.37
10th Percentile
$62.92
90th Percentile
$97.91

Fair Value Distribution

$51.16 - $56.38
12
$56.38 - $61.61
64
$61.61 - $66.83
112
$66.83 - $72.06
145
$72.06 - $77.29
166
$77.29 - $82.51
144
$82.51 - $87.74
125
$87.74 - $92.97
80
$92.97 - $98.19
53
$98.19 - $103.42
34
$103.42 - $108.64
30
$108.64 - $113.87
15
$113.87 - $119.10
7
$119.10 - $124.32
2
$124.32 - $129.55
5
$129.55 - $134.78
1
$134.78 - $140.00
2
$140.00 - $145.23
0
$145.23 - $150.45
2
$150.45 - $155.68
1