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Hang Lung Group Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$15.52
5Y Range-3.01 – -1.83
5Y Selected-2.42
(-) Safety Margin85.67%
5Y Buy Price$-0.43
Upside (to Buy Price)-102.79%
10Y Range-2.89 – -1.67
10Y Selected-2.28
(-) Safety Margin85.67%
10Y Buy Price$-0.41
Upside (to Buy Price)-102.62%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7909
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0031
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.3146
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1590
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1983
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2668
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8560
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0376
Safety Score0.1787

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%
Revenue12,229.3112,717.4713,225.2513,753.4414,302.8614,874.3915,468.9016,087.3416,730.6717,399.89
EBITDA7,001.947,281.447,572.177,874.588,189.168,516.398,856.789,210.879,579.219,962.38
D&A-72.23-75.11-78.11-81.23-84.47-87.85-91.36-95.01-98.81-102.76
EBIT6,929.717,206.337,494.067,793.368,104.698,428.548,765.429,115.869,480.409,859.61
Pro forma Taxes-1,679.06-1,746.08-1,815.80-1,888.32-1,963.75-2,042.22-2,123.85-2,208.76-2,297.08-2,388.97
NOPAT5,250.665,460.255,678.265,905.046,140.946,386.326,641.586,907.107,183.327,470.65
Capital Expenditures-5,315.36-5,527.53-5,748.23-5,977.81-6,216.61-6,465.02-6,723.42-6,992.22-7,271.83-7,562.71
NWC Investment76.9780.0683.2886.6390.1193.7397.50101.43105.51109.76
(+) D&A72.2375.1178.1181.2384.4787.8591.3695.0198.81102.76
Free Cash Flow84.4987.8991.4295.0998.91102.89107.02111.33115.80120.46
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.001,361,618,242.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.35%Terminal Growth: 2.00%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF83.9885.4383.5681.7379.9478.1976.4874.8073.1771.57
Raw: 2,320.95
1,818.91
Raw: 2,826.71
1,628.43

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value2,233.542,417.26
(-) Net Debt5,807.055,807.05
Equity Value-3,573.51-3,389.79
(/) Shares Out1,361.621,361.62
Fair Value$-2.62$-2.49
(-) Safety Margin85.67%85.67%
Buy Price$-0.38$-0.36
Current Price$15.52$15.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-102.42%-102.30%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.35%Terminal Growth: 1.50%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF83.9085.0782.4379.8777.3974.9972.6770.4168.2366.12
Raw: 1,717.06
1,296.69
Raw: 2,091.23
1,107.82

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1,705.331,868.89
(-) Net Debt5,807.055,807.05
Equity Value-4,101.72-3,938.16
(/) Shares Out1,361.621,361.62
Fair Value$-3.01$-2.89
(-) Safety Margin85.67%85.67%
Buy Price$-0.43$-0.41
Current Price$15.52$15.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-102.78%-102.67%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.35%Terminal Growth: 2.50%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF84.0585.8184.7283.6582.5981.5580.5279.5178.5177.52
Raw: 3,561.20
2,897.27
Raw: 4,337.22
2,719.33

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,318.093,537.77
(-) Net Debt5,807.055,807.05
Equity Value-2,488.96-2,269.28
(/) Shares Out1,361.621,361.62
Fair Value$-1.83$-1.67
(-) Safety Margin85.67%85.67%
Buy Price$-0.26$-0.24
Current Price$15.52$15.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.69%-101.54%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$15.52
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH95.61%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue43,702.1785,483.84167,211.07327,074.00639,774.621,251,434.152,447,873.644,788,174.719,365,931.5918,320,274.39
Constant Implied Growth95.61%95.61%95.61%95.61%95.61%95.61%95.61%95.61%95.61%95.61%
Implied Free Cash Flow4.378.5516.7232.7163.98125.14244.79478.82936.591,832.03
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF4.197.3513.5124.8645.7284.09154.66284.46523.21962.33

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$19.264.22%$-109.77-669.96%
20182018-12-31$19.944.40%$-110.28-653.08%
20172017-12-31$28.753.22%$44.7255.56%
20162016-12-31$27.00-2.32%$38.2841.77%
20152015-12-31$25.20-9.75%$-8.95-135.52%
20142014-12-31$35.20-4.01%$94.33167.97%
20132013-12-31$39.15-9.82%$-36.53-193.31%
20122012-12-31$44.050.54%$-0.52-101.17%
20112011-06-30$49.3010.40%$-19.32-139.18%
20102010-06-30$41.8018.70%$136.63226.86%
20092009-06-30$36.5012.57%$21.21-41.88%
20082008-06-30$34.6510.48%$116.53236.30%
20072007-06-30$35.30-3.93%$-5.70-116.14%
20062006-06-30$16.805.11%$-1.09-106.49%
20052005-06-30$13.8021.28%$102.51642.79%
20042004-06-30$10.50-0.38%$-5.71-154.42%
20032003-06-30$6.358.61%$-13.62-314.47%
20022002-06-30$7.354.14%$-8.97-222.11%
20012001-06-30$7.6013.17%$-55.95-836.19%
20002000-06-30$6.0510.03%$1.88-68.92%
19991999-06-30$8.757.85%$-23.15-364.53%
19981998-06-30$8.750.92%$5.16-41.06%
19971997-06-30$8.75-4.24%$34.41293.23%
19961996-06-30$8.75-10.43%$34.10289.76%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-2.34
Median
$-2.47
10th Percentile
$-2.91
90th Percentile
$-1.63

Fair Value Distribution

$-3.28 - $-3.08
18
$-3.08 - $-2.88
107
$-2.88 - $-2.68
182
$-2.68 - $-2.48
184
$-2.48 - $-2.28
169
$-2.28 - $-2.08
90
$-2.08 - $-1.88
87
$-1.88 - $-1.68
52
$-1.68 - $-1.48
37
$-1.48 - $-1.28
22
$-1.28 - $-1.08
19
$-1.08 - $-0.88
8
$-0.88 - $-0.68
6
$-0.68 - $-0.48
5
$-0.48 - $-0.28
5
$-0.28 - $-0.08
1
$-0.08 - $0.12
2
$0.12 - $0.32
1
$0.32 - $0.52
4
$0.52 - $0.72
0