Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $196.39 |
| 5Y Range | 149.07 – 259.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 204.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.55% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $62.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.35% |
| 10Y Range | 165.14 – 274.47 |
| 10Y Selected | 219.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.55% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $66.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.92% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7842 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8974 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4157 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4501 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8069 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7762 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0003 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2331 |
| Safety Score | 0.3045 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.33% | 4.29% | 4.25% | 4.22% | 4.18% | 4.15% | 4.11% | 4.07% | 4.04% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 22,783.85 | 23,761.31 | 24,772.09 | 25,816.88 | 26,896.37 | 28,011.25 | 29,162.18 | 30,349.82 | 31,574.82 | 32,837.81 |
| EBITDA | 6,097.88 | 6,359.49 | 6,630.01 | 6,909.64 | 7,198.56 | 7,496.94 | 7,804.98 | 8,122.84 | 8,450.70 | 8,788.73 |
| D&A | -2,645.65 | -2,759.15 | -2,876.52 | -2,997.84 | -3,123.19 | -3,252.65 | -3,386.29 | -3,524.20 | -3,666.45 | -3,813.11 |
| EBIT | 3,452.23 | 3,600.34 | 3,753.49 | 3,911.80 | 4,075.37 | 4,244.29 | 4,418.68 | 4,598.64 | 4,784.25 | 4,975.62 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -427.13 | -445.46 | -464.41 | -483.99 | -504.23 | -525.13 | -546.71 | -568.97 | -591.94 | -615.61 |
| NOPAT | 3,025.10 | 3,154.88 | 3,289.09 | 3,427.81 | 3,571.14 | 3,719.16 | 3,871.98 | 4,029.66 | 4,192.31 | 4,360.01 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,139.76 | -1,188.66 | -1,239.23 | -1,291.49 | -1,345.49 | -1,401.27 | -1,458.84 | -1,518.25 | -1,579.53 | -1,642.71 |
| NWC Investment | -78.25 | -80.95 | -83.71 | -86.52 | -89.40 | -92.33 | -95.31 | -98.36 | -101.45 | -104.60 |
| (+) D&A | 2,645.65 | 2,759.15 | 2,876.52 | 2,997.84 | 3,123.19 | 3,252.65 | 3,386.29 | 3,524.20 | 3,666.45 | 3,813.11 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,452.74 | 4,644.42 | 4,842.67 | 5,047.63 | 5,259.44 | 5,478.22 | 5,704.12 | 5,937.26 | 6,177.78 | 6,425.80 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 | 288,848,250.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/31/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,375.86 | 4,179.97 | 3,994.94 | 3,816.77 | 3,645.28 | 3,480.28 | 3,321.59 | 3,169.03 | 3,022.43 | 2,881.61 | Raw: 81,034.44 53,771.55 |
Raw: 99,005.17 42,506.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 73,784.37 | 78,394.40 |
| (-) Net Debt | 18,396.50 | 18,396.50 |
| Equity Value | 55,387.87 | 59,997.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 288.85 | 288.85 |
| Fair Value | $191.75 | $207.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.55% | 69.55% |
| Buy Price | $58.39 | $63.25 |
| Current Price | $196.39 | $196.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.27% | -67.79% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,367.88 | 4,134.08 | 3,915.19 | 3,706.60 | 3,507.90 | 3,318.70 | 3,138.62 | 2,967.27 | 2,804.29 | 2,649.35 | Raw: 65,796.15 41,823.41 |
Raw: 80,387.54 31,587.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 61,455.06 | 66,097.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | 18,396.50 | 18,396.50 |
| Equity Value | 43,058.56 | 47,700.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 288.85 | 288.85 |
| Fair Value | $149.07 | $165.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.55% | 69.55% |
| Buy Price | $45.39 | $50.29 |
| Current Price | $196.39 | $196.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.89% | -74.40% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,383.93 | 4,226.80 | 4,077.07 | 3,931.27 | 3,789.37 | 3,651.32 | 3,517.07 | 3,386.58 | 3,259.79 | 3,136.65 | Raw: 105,150.61 72,866.96 |
Raw: 128,469.49 60,315.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 93,275.40 | 97,675.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 18,396.50 | 18,396.50 |
| Equity Value | 74,878.90 | 79,279.07 |
| (/) Shares Out | 288.85 | 288.85 |
| Fair Value | $259.23 | $274.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.55% | 69.55% |
| Buy Price | $78.94 | $83.57 |
| Current Price | $196.39 | $196.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.81% | -57.44% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 51,171.83 | 119,902.74 | 280,948.86 | 658,302.40 | 1,542,494.46 | 3,614,279.92 | 8,468,762.59 | 19,843,493.39 | 46,496,076.13 | 108,946,799.47 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% | 134.31% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.12 | 11.99 | 28.09 | 65.83 | 154.25 | 361.43 | 846.88 | 1,984.35 | 4,649.61 | 10,894.68 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.81 | 9.89 | 21.24 | 45.63 | 97.99 | 210.46 | 452.02 | 970.83 | 2,085.08 | 4,478.22 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $226.85 | 3.34% | $116.27 | -48.75% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $246.62 | 4.02% | $87.87 | -64.37% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $257.75 | 2.49% | $49.23 | -80.90% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $191.04 | 1.68% | $113.48 | -40.60% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $175.23 | 2.89% | $100.82 | -42.47% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $129.34 | 1.11% | $29.26 | -77.38% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $110.96 | 5.18% | $95.52 | -13.92% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $97.51 | 7.80% | $88.60 | -9.14% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $76.97 | 8.78% | $116.84 | 51.80% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $71.48 | 11.02% | $114.06 | 59.57% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $72.24 | 9.37% | $104.76 | 45.02% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $68.00 | 9.11% | $92.01 | 35.31% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $78.25 | 9.12% | $93.13 | 19.01% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $80.69 | 6.84% | $51.96 | -35.60% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $68.90 | 6.07% | $45.50 | -33.96% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $51.12 | 6.55% | $71.34 | 39.55% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $50.40 | 8.22% | $68.96 | 36.83% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $35.21 | 9.65% | $54.59 | 55.04% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $27.69 | 9.50% | $46.69 | 68.62% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $35.78 | 10.31% | $32.60 | -8.88% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $25.77 | 10.24% | $16.64 | -35.44% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $27.36 | 8.18% | $-27.86 | -201.82% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $40.09 | 5.70% | $-21.38 | -153.33% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $23.34 | 4.46% | $2.41 | -89.66% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $21.57 | 7.08% | $20.94 | -2.94% |
| $113.67 - $133.02 | 7 |
| $133.02 - $152.36 | 24 |
| $152.36 - $171.71 | 119 |
| $171.71 - $191.06 | 176 |
| $191.06 - $210.40 | 186 |
| $210.40 - $229.75 | 150 |
| $229.75 - $249.10 | 142 |
| $249.10 - $268.44 | 76 |
| $268.44 - $287.79 | 53 |
| $287.79 - $307.14 | 23 |
| $307.14 - $326.48 | 18 |
| $326.48 - $345.83 | 11 |
| $345.83 - $365.18 | 8 |
| $365.18 - $384.52 | 1 |
| $384.52 - $403.87 | 2 |
| $403.87 - $423.22 | 2 |
| $423.22 - $442.56 | 0 |
| $442.56 - $461.91 | 0 |
| $461.91 - $481.25 | 1 |
| $481.25 - $500.60 | 1 |