Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $45.06 |
| 5Y Range | 7.56 – 11.30 |
| 5Y Selected | 9.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.99% |
| 10Y Range | 8.58 – 12.55 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.63% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3164 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0684 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5606 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2957 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4661 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2204 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4281 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0383 |
| Safety Score | 0.1439 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.66% | 5.47% | 5.29% | 5.11% | 4.92% | 4.74% | 4.55% | 4.37% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 73.76 | 77.80 | 81.91 | 86.10 | 90.33 | 94.61 | 98.92 | 103.24 | 107.56 | 111.86 |
| EBITDA | 11.49 | 12.12 | 12.76 | 13.41 | 14.07 | 14.74 | 15.41 | 16.08 | 16.75 | 17.42 |
| D&A | -3.89 | -4.11 | -4.32 | -4.54 | -4.77 | -4.99 | -5.22 | -5.45 | -5.68 | -5.90 |
| EBIT | 7.60 | 8.01 | 8.44 | 8.87 | 9.30 | 9.74 | 10.19 | 10.63 | 11.08 | 11.52 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1.60 | -1.68 | -1.77 | -1.86 | -1.95 | -2.05 | -2.14 | -2.23 | -2.33 | -2.42 |
| NOPAT | 6.00 | 6.33 | 6.66 | 7.00 | 7.35 | 7.70 | 8.05 | 8.40 | 8.75 | 9.10 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3.13 | -3.31 | -3.48 | -3.66 | -3.84 | -4.02 | -4.20 | -4.39 | -4.57 | -4.75 |
| NWC Investment | -1.55 | -1.58 | -1.61 | -1.64 | -1.66 | -1.68 | -1.69 | -1.69 | -1.69 | -1.69 |
| (+) D&A | 3.89 | 4.11 | 4.32 | 4.54 | 4.77 | 4.99 | 5.22 | 5.45 | 5.68 | 5.90 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5.21 | 5.55 | 5.89 | 6.25 | 6.62 | 6.99 | 7.38 | 7.77 | 8.16 | 8.56 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 | 9,697,500.00 |
| Metric | Apr-26 | Apr-27 | Apr-28 | Apr-29 | Apr-30 | Apr-31 | Apr-32 | Apr-33 | Apr-34 | Apr-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 5/1/26 | 5/1/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/1/29 | 5/1/30 | 5/1/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/1/33 | 5/1/34 |
| Period End | 4/30/26 | 4/30/27 | 4/30/28 | 4/30/29 | 4/30/30 | 4/30/31 | 4/30/32 | 4/30/33 | 4/30/34 | 4/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 1/29/26 | 10/30/26 | 10/30/27 | 10/30/28 | 10/30/29 | 10/30/30 | 10/30/31 | 10/30/32 | 10/30/33 | 10/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.79 | 1.79 | 2.79 | 3.79 | 4.79 | 5.79 | 6.79 | 7.79 | 8.79 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5.17 | 5.18 | 5.04 | 4.90 | 4.76 | 4.61 | 4.45 | 4.30 | 4.14 | 3.98 | Raw: 95.57 65.78 |
Raw: 123.70 55.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 90.82 | 101.62 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| Equity Value | 87.63 | 98.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.70 | 9.70 |
| Fair Value | $9.04 | $10.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% | 85.61% |
| Buy Price | $1.30 | $1.46 |
| Current Price | $45.06 | $45.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.11% | -96.76% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.84 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5.16 | 5.14 | 4.96 | 4.78 | 4.59 | 4.41 | 4.23 | 4.04 | 3.86 | 3.68 | Raw: 78.44 51.92 |
Raw: 101.53 41.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 76.55 | 86.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| Equity Value | 73.36 | 83.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.70 | 9.70 |
| Fair Value | $7.56 | $8.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% | 85.61% |
| Buy Price | $1.09 | $1.23 |
| Current Price | $45.06 | $45.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.58% | -97.26% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5.17 | 5.22 | 5.13 | 5.03 | 4.93 | 4.82 | 4.70 | 4.58 | 4.45 | 4.32 | Raw: 121.93 87.30 |
Raw: 157.82 76.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 112.77 | 124.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| Equity Value | 109.58 | 121.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.70 | 9.70 |
| Fair Value | $11.30 | $12.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.61% | 85.61% |
| Buy Price | $1.63 | $1.81 |
| Current Price | $45.06 | $45.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.39% | -95.99% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 173.34 | 430.16 | 1,067.47 | 2,649.01 | 6,573.69 | 16,313.05 | 40,481.94 | 100,458.67 | 249,294.96 | 618,642.24 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.66 | 1.63 | 4.05 | 10.05 | 24.93 | 61.86 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.99 | 2.24 | 5.10 | 11.60 | 26.38 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-04-30 | $10.04 | 5.25% | $-7.40 | -173.68% |
| 2019 | 2019-04-30 | $12.05 | 1.82% | $-4.82 | -140.04% |
| 2018 | 2018-04-30 | $8.81 | -3.50% | $5.42 | -38.46% |
| 2017 | 2017-04-30 | $10.49 | 3.75% | $-2.47 | -123.53% |
| 2016 | 2016-04-30 | $10.13 | 0.88% | $-0.91 | -109.00% |
| 2015 | 2015-04-30 | $13.24 | -8.59% | $-2.54 | -119.20% |
| 2014 | 2014-04-30 | $10.60 | -13.81% | $-1.92 | -118.10% |
| 2013 | 2013-04-30 | $10.02 | -17.04% | $-1.16 | -111.54% |
| 2012 | 2012-04-30 | $7.60 | -9.08% | $0.70 | -90.82% |
| 2011 | 2011-04-30 | $10.28 | -1.15% | $-0.81 | -107.88% |
| 2010 | 2010-04-30 | $5.54 | 7.38% | $17.99 | 224.67% |
| 2009 | 2009-04-30 | $3.32 | 8.98% | $17.91 | 439.54% |
| 2008 | 2008-04-30 | $6.63 | 7.47% | $-8.86 | -233.68% |
| 2007 | 2007-04-30 | $10.83 | 0.80% | $-17.35 | -260.22% |
| 2006 | 2006-04-30 | $13.95 | -2.26% | $-7.03 | -150.42% |
| 2005 | 2005-04-30 | $11.48 | -0.75% | $2.33 | -79.74% |
| 2004 | 2004-04-30 | $13.60 | 1.28% | $-7.17 | -152.69% |
| 2003 | 2003-04-30 | $10.10 | 4.26% | $4.20 | -58.37% |
| 2002 | 2002-04-30 | $12.75 | 11.21% | $10.36 | -18.77% |
| 2001 | 2001-04-30 | $15.40 | 9.95% | $5.86 | -61.95% |
| 2000 | 2000-04-30 | $16.38 | 3.54% | $7.23 | -55.84% |
| 1999 | 1999-04-30 | $7.75 | 6.35% | $-8.44 | -208.95% |
| 1998 | 1998-04-30 | $16.13 | 11.58% | $8.41 | -47.87% |
| 1997 | 1997-04-30 | $6.58 | 11.17% | $8.40 | 27.59% |
| 1996 | 1996-04-30 | $3.33 | 7.09% | $20.28 | 509.04% |
| $7.27 - $7.88 | 28 |
| $7.88 - $8.48 | 62 |
| $8.48 - $9.09 | 125 |
| $9.09 - $9.69 | 169 |
| $9.69 - $10.30 | 163 |
| $10.30 - $10.91 | 109 |
| $10.91 - $11.51 | 110 |
| $11.51 - $12.12 | 98 |
| $12.12 - $12.73 | 41 |
| $12.73 - $13.33 | 27 |
| $13.33 - $13.94 | 22 |
| $13.94 - $14.54 | 23 |
| $14.54 - $15.15 | 8 |
| $15.15 - $15.76 | 6 |
| $15.76 - $16.36 | 3 |
| $16.36 - $16.97 | 2 |
| $16.97 - $17.57 | 1 |
| $17.57 - $18.18 | 2 |
| $18.18 - $18.79 | 0 |
| $18.79 - $19.39 | 0 |