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Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$294.42
5Y Range172.04 – 273.14
5Y Selected222.59
(-) Safety Margin76.29%
5Y Buy Price$52.78
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.07%
10Y Range228.76 – 357.35
10Y Selected293.06
(-) Safety Margin76.29%
10Y Buy Price$69.48
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.40%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3185
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6318
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0692
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5108
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0436
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4888
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0521
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3432
Safety Score0.2371

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth11.44%10.62%9.79%8.96%8.14%7.31%6.48%5.65%4.83%4.00%
Revenue15,418.2417,055.1518,724.7820,402.9922,062.8623,675.2925,209.7426,635.1427,920.8429,037.68
EBITDA1,493.841,652.431,814.201,976.802,137.622,293.842,442.512,580.622,705.192,813.39
D&A-299.27-331.04-363.45-396.02-428.24-459.53-489.32-516.98-541.94-563.62
EBIT1,194.571,321.401,450.761,580.781,709.381,834.311,953.202,063.632,163.252,249.78
Pro forma Taxes-270.94-299.70-329.04-358.53-387.70-416.03-443.00-468.04-490.64-510.26
NOPAT923.641,021.701,121.721,222.251,321.691,418.281,510.201,595.591,672.611,739.52
Capital Expenditures-340.21-376.33-413.17-450.20-486.83-522.41-556.27-587.72-616.09-640.73
NWC Investment-346.06-357.79-364.94-366.82-362.81-352.44-335.40-311.56-281.03-244.12
(+) D&A299.27331.04363.45396.02428.24459.53489.32516.98541.94563.62
Free Cash Flow536.63618.61707.04801.25900.281,002.961,107.851,213.291,317.441,418.28
Diluted Shares Outstanding53,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.0053,482,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.32%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF531.98594.32622.64646.75666.09680.18688.66691.30688.04678.94
Raw: 13,581.81
9,620.62
Raw: 21,396.48
9,806.27

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,682.4016,295.17
(-) Net Debt1,375.601,375.60
Equity Value11,306.8014,919.57
(/) Shares Out53.4853.48
Fair Value$211.41$278.96
(-) Safety Margin76.29%76.29%
Buy Price$50.13$66.14
Current Price$294.42$294.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.97%-77.53%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.82%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF531.49591.83614.40632.40645.39653.05655.19651.73642.77628.51
Raw: 11,067.61
7,561.49
Raw: 17,435.67
7,363.68

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,576.9913,610.44
(-) Net Debt1,375.601,375.60
Equity Value9,201.3912,234.84
(/) Shares Out53.4853.48
Fair Value$172.04$228.76
(-) Safety Margin76.29%76.29%
Buy Price$40.79$54.24
Current Price$294.42$294.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.15%-81.58%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.82%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF532.47596.85631.06661.57687.65708.69724.17733.68736.97733.95
Raw: 17,523.96
12,874.03
Raw: 27,606.87
13,740.77

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value15,983.6220,487.81
(-) Net Debt1,375.601,375.60
Equity Value14,608.0219,112.21
(/) Shares Out53.4853.48
Fair Value$273.14$357.35
(-) Safety Margin76.29%76.29%
Buy Price$64.76$84.73
Current Price$294.42$294.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-78.00%-71.22%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$294.42
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH111.76%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue29,481.2262,428.06132,194.78279,929.54592,765.831,255,213.492,657,981.985,628,419.6011,918,480.8125,238,023.26
Constant Implied Growth111.76%111.76%111.76%111.76%111.76%111.76%111.76%111.76%111.76%111.76%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.956.2413.2227.9959.28125.52265.80562.841,191.852,523.80
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF2.745.049.7818.9836.8571.52138.82269.44522.971,015.06

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$119.7613.18%$392.85228.03%
20182018-12-31$71.1715.92%$145.32104.18%
20172017-12-31$85.7914.20%$65.43-23.73%
20162016-12-31$79.548.64%$117.5047.73%
20152015-12-31$57.914.85%$189.25226.80%
20142014-12-31$61.278.28%$17.40-71.60%
20132013-12-31$75.844.18%$83.139.61%
20122012-12-31$62.100.89%$65.896.10%
20112011-12-31$48.691.69%$0.33-99.32%
20102010-12-31$51.104.76%$13.93-72.74%
20092009-12-31$43.2210.16%$264.27511.44%
20082008-12-31$19.9412.90%$159.07697.74%
20072007-12-31$54.202.84%$102.7489.56%
20062006-12-31$39.38-0.89%$1.86-95.28%
20052005-12-31$30.56-1.25%$42.3138.45%
20042004-12-31$19.4811.11%$25.5531.18%
20032003-12-31$16.6125.63%$49.66199.00%
20022002-12-31$10.4229.07%$49.89378.80%
20012001-12-31$13.1326.43%$55.53322.93%
20002000-12-31$12.3816.17%$-10.92-188.22%
19991999-12-31$11.727.26%$1.46-87.53%
19981998-12-31$9.210.24%$-45.21-590.86%
19971997-12-31$9.923.48%$-27.32-375.44%
19961996-12-31$7.789.99%$5.16-33.68%
19951995-12-31$4.5818.95%$21.96379.45%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$289.92
Median
$279.07
10th Percentile
$227.46
90th Percentile
$369.75

Fair Value Distribution

$184.92 - $213.12
37
$213.12 - $241.31
145
$241.31 - $269.50
243
$269.50 - $297.69
224
$297.69 - $325.88
135
$325.88 - $354.08
94
$354.08 - $382.27
46
$382.27 - $410.46
36
$410.46 - $438.65
17
$438.65 - $466.84
8
$466.84 - $495.04
10
$495.04 - $523.23
2
$523.23 - $551.42
1
$551.42 - $579.61
1
$579.61 - $607.80
0
$607.80 - $636.00
0
$636.00 - $664.19
0
$664.19 - $692.38
0
$692.38 - $720.57
0
$720.57 - $748.77
1