| Current Price | $294.42 |
| 5Y Range | 172.04 – 273.14 |
| 5Y Selected | 222.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.29% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $52.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.07% |
| 10Y Range | 228.76 – 357.35 |
| 10Y Selected | 293.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.29% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $69.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.40% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3185 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6318 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0692 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5108 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0436 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4888 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0521 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3432 |
| Safety Score | 0.2371 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 11.44% | 10.62% | 9.79% | 8.96% | 8.14% | 7.31% | 6.48% | 5.65% | 4.83% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 15,418.24 | 17,055.15 | 18,724.78 | 20,402.99 | 22,062.86 | 23,675.29 | 25,209.74 | 26,635.14 | 27,920.84 | 29,037.68 |
| EBITDA | 1,493.84 | 1,652.43 | 1,814.20 | 1,976.80 | 2,137.62 | 2,293.84 | 2,442.51 | 2,580.62 | 2,705.19 | 2,813.39 |
| D&A | -299.27 | -331.04 | -363.45 | -396.02 | -428.24 | -459.53 | -489.32 | -516.98 | -541.94 | -563.62 |
| EBIT | 1,194.57 | 1,321.40 | 1,450.76 | 1,580.78 | 1,709.38 | 1,834.31 | 1,953.20 | 2,063.63 | 2,163.25 | 2,249.78 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -270.94 | -299.70 | -329.04 | -358.53 | -387.70 | -416.03 | -443.00 | -468.04 | -490.64 | -510.26 |
| NOPAT | 923.64 | 1,021.70 | 1,121.72 | 1,222.25 | 1,321.69 | 1,418.28 | 1,510.20 | 1,595.59 | 1,672.61 | 1,739.52 |
| Capital Expenditures | -340.21 | -376.33 | -413.17 | -450.20 | -486.83 | -522.41 | -556.27 | -587.72 | -616.09 | -640.73 |
| NWC Investment | -346.06 | -357.79 | -364.94 | -366.82 | -362.81 | -352.44 | -335.40 | -311.56 | -281.03 | -244.12 |
| (+) D&A | 299.27 | 331.04 | 363.45 | 396.02 | 428.24 | 459.53 | 489.32 | 516.98 | 541.94 | 563.62 |
| Free Cash Flow | 536.63 | 618.61 | 707.04 | 801.25 | 900.28 | 1,002.96 | 1,107.85 | 1,213.29 | 1,317.44 | 1,418.28 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 | 53,482,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 531.98 | 594.32 | 622.64 | 646.75 | 666.09 | 680.18 | 688.66 | 691.30 | 688.04 | 678.94 | Raw: 13,581.81 9,620.62 |
Raw: 21,396.48 9,806.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,682.40 | 16,295.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,375.60 | 1,375.60 |
| Equity Value | 11,306.80 | 14,919.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 53.48 | 53.48 |
| Fair Value | $211.41 | $278.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.29% | 76.29% |
| Buy Price | $50.13 | $66.14 |
| Current Price | $294.42 | $294.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.97% | -77.53% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 531.49 | 591.83 | 614.40 | 632.40 | 645.39 | 653.05 | 655.19 | 651.73 | 642.77 | 628.51 | Raw: 11,067.61 7,561.49 |
Raw: 17,435.67 7,363.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,576.99 | 13,610.44 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,375.60 | 1,375.60 |
| Equity Value | 9,201.39 | 12,234.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 53.48 | 53.48 |
| Fair Value | $172.04 | $228.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.29% | 76.29% |
| Buy Price | $40.79 | $54.24 |
| Current Price | $294.42 | $294.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.15% | -81.58% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 532.47 | 596.85 | 631.06 | 661.57 | 687.65 | 708.69 | 724.17 | 733.68 | 736.97 | 733.95 | Raw: 17,523.96 12,874.03 |
Raw: 27,606.87 13,740.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,983.62 | 20,487.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,375.60 | 1,375.60 |
| Equity Value | 14,608.02 | 19,112.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 53.48 | 53.48 |
| Fair Value | $273.14 | $357.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.29% | 76.29% |
| Buy Price | $64.76 | $84.73 |
| Current Price | $294.42 | $294.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.00% | -71.22% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 29,481.22 | 62,428.06 | 132,194.78 | 279,929.54 | 592,765.83 | 1,255,213.49 | 2,657,981.98 | 5,628,419.60 | 11,918,480.81 | 25,238,023.26 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% | 111.76% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.95 | 6.24 | 13.22 | 27.99 | 59.28 | 125.52 | 265.80 | 562.84 | 1,191.85 | 2,523.80 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.74 | 5.04 | 9.78 | 18.98 | 36.85 | 71.52 | 138.82 | 269.44 | 522.97 | 1,015.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $119.76 | 13.18% | $392.85 | 228.03% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $71.17 | 15.92% | $145.32 | 104.18% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $85.79 | 14.20% | $65.43 | -23.73% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $79.54 | 8.64% | $117.50 | 47.73% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $57.91 | 4.85% | $189.25 | 226.80% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $61.27 | 8.28% | $17.40 | -71.60% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $75.84 | 4.18% | $83.13 | 9.61% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $62.10 | 0.89% | $65.89 | 6.10% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $48.69 | 1.69% | $0.33 | -99.32% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $51.10 | 4.76% | $13.93 | -72.74% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $43.22 | 10.16% | $264.27 | 511.44% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $19.94 | 12.90% | $159.07 | 697.74% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $54.20 | 2.84% | $102.74 | 89.56% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $39.38 | -0.89% | $1.86 | -95.28% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $30.56 | -1.25% | $42.31 | 38.45% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $19.48 | 11.11% | $25.55 | 31.18% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $16.61 | 25.63% | $49.66 | 199.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $10.42 | 29.07% | $49.89 | 378.80% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $13.13 | 26.43% | $55.53 | 322.93% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $12.38 | 16.17% | $-10.92 | -188.22% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $11.72 | 7.26% | $1.46 | -87.53% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $9.21 | 0.24% | $-45.21 | -590.86% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $9.92 | 3.48% | $-27.32 | -375.44% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $7.78 | 9.99% | $5.16 | -33.68% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $4.58 | 18.95% | $21.96 | 379.45% |
| $184.92 - $213.12 | 37 |
| $213.12 - $241.31 | 145 |
| $241.31 - $269.50 | 243 |
| $269.50 - $297.69 | 224 |
| $297.69 - $325.88 | 135 |
| $325.88 - $354.08 | 94 |
| $354.08 - $382.27 | 46 |
| $382.27 - $410.46 | 36 |
| $410.46 - $438.65 | 17 |
| $438.65 - $466.84 | 8 |
| $466.84 - $495.04 | 10 |
| $495.04 - $523.23 | 2 |
| $523.23 - $551.42 | 1 |
| $551.42 - $579.61 | 1 |
| $579.61 - $607.80 | 0 |
| $607.80 - $636.00 | 0 |
| $636.00 - $664.19 | 0 |
| $664.19 - $692.38 | 0 |
| $692.38 - $720.57 | 0 |
| $720.57 - $748.77 | 1 |