Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $41.54 |
| 5Y Range | 333.99 – 493.83 |
| 5Y Selected | 413.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.29% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $102.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 146.21% |
| 10Y Range | 317.95 – 446.59 |
| 10Y Selected | 382.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.29% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $94.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 127.39% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8291 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6850 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0931 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5904 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1671 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5925 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2817 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1727 |
| Safety Score | 0.2471 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.32% | 7.84% | 7.36% | 6.88% | 6.40% | 5.92% | 5.44% | 4.96% | 4.48% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 96.33 | 103.88 | 111.53 | 119.20 | 126.82 | 134.33 | 141.64 | 148.66 | 155.32 | 161.53 |
| EBITDA | 46.35 | 49.98 | 53.66 | 57.35 | 61.02 | 64.64 | 68.15 | 71.53 | 74.74 | 77.72 |
| D&A | -2.36 | -2.55 | -2.74 | -2.93 | -3.11 | -3.30 | -3.48 | -3.65 | -3.81 | -3.96 |
| EBIT | 43.99 | 47.43 | 50.93 | 54.43 | 57.91 | 61.34 | 64.67 | 67.88 | 70.92 | 73.76 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -8.58 | -9.25 | -9.93 | -10.62 | -11.29 | -11.96 | -12.61 | -13.24 | -13.83 | -14.39 |
| NOPAT | 35.41 | 38.18 | 40.99 | 43.81 | 46.62 | 49.38 | 52.06 | 54.64 | 57.09 | 59.37 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4.04 | -4.36 | -4.68 | -5.00 | -5.32 | -5.63 | -5.94 | -6.23 | -6.51 | -6.77 |
| NWC Investment | 77.56 | 79.17 | 80.15 | 80.44 | 79.97 | 78.71 | 76.61 | 73.65 | 69.83 | 65.14 |
| (+) D&A | 2.36 | 2.55 | 2.74 | 2.93 | 3.11 | 3.30 | 3.48 | 3.65 | 3.81 | 3.96 |
| Free Cash Flow | 111.30 | 115.55 | 119.20 | 122.18 | 124.39 | 125.75 | 126.21 | 125.71 | 124.22 | 121.71 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 | 4,717,455.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 110.33 | 111.01 | 104.97 | 98.62 | 92.03 | 85.28 | 78.45 | 71.63 | 64.88 | 58.26 | Raw: 1,884.37 1,334.79 |
Raw: 1,843.86 845.06 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,851.75 | 1,720.53 |
| (-) Net Debt | -17.26 | -17.26 |
| Equity Value | 1,869.01 | 1,737.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.72 | 4.72 |
| Fair Value | $396.19 | $368.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.29% | 75.29% |
| Buy Price | $97.90 | $91.03 |
| Current Price | $41.54 | $41.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 135.67% | 119.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 110.23 | 110.55 | 103.58 | 96.43 | 89.17 | 81.88 | 74.64 | 67.53 | 60.61 | 53.94 | Raw: 1,534.45 1,048.35 |
Raw: 1,501.47 634.12 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,558.31 | 1,482.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | -17.26 | -17.26 |
| Equity Value | 1,575.57 | 1,499.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.72 | 4.72 |
| Fair Value | $333.99 | $317.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.29% | 75.29% |
| Buy Price | $82.53 | $78.57 |
| Current Price | $41.54 | $41.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 98.67% | 89.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 110.43 | 111.48 | 106.39 | 100.88 | 95.01 | 88.86 | 82.50 | 76.02 | 69.49 | 62.98 | Raw: 2,434.03 1,788.17 |
Raw: 2,381.71 1,185.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,312.37 | 2,089.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | -17.26 | -17.26 |
| Equity Value | 2,329.63 | 2,106.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.72 | 4.72 |
| Fair Value | $493.83 | $446.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.29% | 75.29% |
| Buy Price | $122.03 | $110.35 |
| Current Price | $41.54 | $41.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 193.75% | 165.65% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 162.07 | 368.54 | 838.04 | 1,905.65 | 4,333.30 | 9,853.60 | 22,406.36 | 50,950.39 | 115,857.40 | 263,451.14 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.99 | 2.24 | 5.10 | 11.59 | 26.35 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.56 | 1.17 | 2.44 | 5.08 | 10.60 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $39.62 | 12.73% | $48.54 | 22.51% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $35.39 | 5.32% | $67.18 | 89.82% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $40.40 | -0.98% | $46.08 | 14.05% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $27.20 | -1.18% | $37.46 | 37.72% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $24.55 | 1.58% | $36.69 | 49.46% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $24.54 | 3.43% | $45.27 | 84.48% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $22.01 | 2.88% | $50.73 | 130.47% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $18.80 | 1.34% | $45.61 | 142.60% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $18.50 | -1.52% | $59.74 | 222.91% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $19.60 | -3.84% | $32.12 | 63.87% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $22.03 | -5.14% | $-6.27 | -128.47% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $18.00 | -5.88% | $-1.07 | -105.92% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $25.50 | -4.71% | $7.87 | -69.12% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $25.15 | -3.32% | $12.67 | -49.63% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $25.30 | -1.19% | $9.57 | -62.16% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $26.60 | 3.24% | $12.39 | -53.42% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $21.40 | 5.60% | $21.93 | 2.48% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $16.56 | 5.65% | $-225.12 | -1,459.42% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $19.36 | 2.34% | $7.91 | -59.14% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $20.00 | -0.52% | $4.76 | -76.22% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $26.20 | 0.97% | $1.89 | -92.78% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $26.88 | 4.70% | $8.37 | -68.85% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $14.93 | 13.52% | $19.16 | 28.34% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $11.12 | 13.23% | $24.24 | 117.98% |
| $270.11 - $288.89 | 10 |
| $288.89 - $307.67 | 43 |
| $307.67 - $326.45 | 93 |
| $326.45 - $345.23 | 147 |
| $345.23 - $364.01 | 150 |
| $364.01 - $382.79 | 159 |
| $382.79 - $401.57 | 117 |
| $401.57 - $420.35 | 87 |
| $420.35 - $439.13 | 62 |
| $439.13 - $457.91 | 48 |
| $457.91 - $476.69 | 34 |
| $476.69 - $495.47 | 13 |
| $495.47 - $514.25 | 12 |
| $514.25 - $533.03 | 9 |
| $533.03 - $551.81 | 5 |
| $551.81 - $570.59 | 0 |
| $570.59 - $589.37 | 6 |
| $589.37 - $608.15 | 3 |
| $608.15 - $626.93 | 1 |
| $626.93 - $645.71 | 1 |