Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $134.51 |
| 5Y Range | 8.48 – 50.31 |
| 5Y Selected | 29.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.15% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.10% |
| 10Y Range | 18.97 – 63.34 |
| 10Y Selected | 41.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.15% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $7.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.54% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9485 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9764 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8857 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1164 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8046 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3404 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3133 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0100 |
| Safety Score | 0.1785 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.86% | 9.21% | 8.56% | 7.91% | 7.25% | 6.60% | 5.95% | 5.30% | 4.65% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 44,615.84 | 48,723.64 | 52,892.52 | 57,073.83 | 61,214.19 | 65,256.49 | 69,140.97 | 72,806.66 | 76,192.82 | 79,240.53 |
| EBITDA | 3,094.43 | 3,379.34 | 3,668.48 | 3,958.48 | 4,245.65 | 4,526.01 | 4,795.43 | 5,049.67 | 5,284.52 | 5,495.90 |
| D&A | -858.60 | -937.65 | -1,017.88 | -1,098.35 | -1,178.03 | -1,255.82 | -1,330.57 | -1,401.12 | -1,466.28 | -1,524.93 |
| EBIT | 2,235.83 | 2,441.68 | 2,650.60 | 2,860.14 | 3,067.62 | 3,270.19 | 3,464.86 | 3,648.55 | 3,818.24 | 3,970.97 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -539.67 | -589.36 | -639.79 | -690.36 | -740.45 | -789.34 | -836.33 | -880.67 | -921.63 | -958.49 |
| NOPAT | 1,696.16 | 1,852.32 | 2,010.81 | 2,169.77 | 2,327.18 | 2,480.85 | 2,628.53 | 2,767.89 | 2,896.62 | 3,012.48 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,451.40 | -1,585.03 | -1,720.65 | -1,856.67 | -1,991.36 | -2,122.86 | -2,249.23 | -2,368.48 | -2,478.63 | -2,577.78 |
| NWC Investment | -47.88 | -49.13 | -49.86 | -50.01 | -49.52 | -48.35 | -46.46 | -43.84 | -40.50 | -36.45 |
| (+) D&A | 858.60 | 937.65 | 1,017.88 | 1,098.35 | 1,178.03 | 1,255.82 | 1,330.57 | 1,401.12 | 1,466.28 | 1,524.93 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,055.48 | 1,155.82 | 1,258.18 | 1,361.44 | 1,464.32 | 1,565.46 | 1,663.41 | 1,756.68 | 1,843.76 | 1,923.18 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 | 220,485,000.00 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/16/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,046.33 | 1,102.73 | 1,100.29 | 1,091.30 | 1,074.95 | 1,053.36 | 1,025.93 | 993.10 | 955.41 | 913.45 | Raw: 22,705.00 15,957.45 |
Raw: 29,819.88 13,560.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,373.03 | 23,916.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,937.49 | 15,937.49 |
| Equity Value | 5,435.54 | 7,979.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 220.49 | 220.49 |
| Fair Value | $24.65 | $36.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.15% | 82.15% |
| Buy Price | $4.40 | $6.46 |
| Current Price | $134.51 | $134.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.73% | -95.20% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,045.37 | 1,097.31 | 1,084.93 | 1,066.30 | 1,040.68 | 1,010.52 | 975.27 | 935.49 | 891.81 | 844.90 | Raw: 18,415.17 12,472.94 |
Raw: 24,185.79 10,126.43 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,807.54 | 20,119.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,937.49 | 15,937.49 |
| Equity Value | 1,870.04 | 4,181.51 |
| (/) Shares Out | 220.49 | 220.49 |
| Fair Value | $8.48 | $18.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.15% | 82.15% |
| Buy Price | $1.51 | $3.39 |
| Current Price | $134.51 | $134.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -98.87% | -97.48% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,047.29 | 1,108.22 | 1,116.00 | 1,117.12 | 1,110.67 | 1,098.43 | 1,079.72 | 1,054.84 | 1,024.19 | 988.28 | Raw: 29,513.42 21,530.69 |
Raw: 38,761.80 19,158.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 27,029.99 | 29,902.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | 15,937.49 | 15,937.49 |
| Equity Value | 11,092.50 | 13,965.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 220.49 | 220.49 |
| Fair Value | $50.31 | $63.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.15% | 82.15% |
| Buy Price | $8.98 | $11.31 |
| Current Price | $134.51 | $134.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.32% | -91.59% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 87,296.98 | 180,939.83 | 375,032.70 | 777,327.60 | 1,611,161.38 | 3,339,442.71 | 6,921,639.10 | 14,346,432.03 | 29,735,747.39 | 61,633,071.63 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 8.73 | 18.09 | 37.50 | 77.73 | 161.12 | 333.94 | 692.16 | 1,434.64 | 2,973.57 | 6,163.31 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 8.42 | 15.82 | 30.06 | 57.06 | 108.41 | 205.96 | 391.30 | 743.41 | 1,412.36 | 2,683.26 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $153.41 | 8.01% | $75.79 | -50.60% |
| 2019 | 2019-02-01 | $115.04 | 11.89% | $122.84 | 6.78% |
| 2018 | 2018-02-02 | $99.44 | 14.07% | $105.61 | 6.20% |
| 2017 | 2017-02-03 | $73.14 | 14.00% | $90.31 | 23.48% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-29 | $75.06 | 13.36% | $69.13 | -7.90% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-30 | $67.06 | 11.06% | $67.46 | 0.59% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $56.32 | 11.03% | $43.22 | -23.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-02-01 | $46.28 | 11.55% | $33.57 | -27.46% |
| 2012 | 2012-02-03 | $41.94 | 12.10% | $32.24 | -23.13% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-28 | $28.40 | 11.86% | $21.39 | -24.68% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-29 | $23.49 | 11.92% | $22.53 | -4.09% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-30 | $22.73 | 10.21% | $15.32 | -32.59% |
| 2008 | 2008-02-01 | $22.73 | 9.31% | $8.27 | -63.60% |
| 2007 | 2007-02-02 | $22.73 | 8.67% | $9.80 | -56.89% |
| 2006 | 2006-02-03 | $22.73 | 7.18% | $16.96 | -25.37% |
| 2005 | 2005-01-28 | $22.73 | 7.60% | $6.08 | -73.27% |
| 2004 | 2004-01-30 | $22.73 | 8.32% | $24.12 | 6.09% |
| 2003 | 2003-01-31 | $22.73 | 10.09% | $20.20 | -11.15% |
| 1996 | 1996-01-31 | $22.73 | 19.76% | $-7.81 | -134.34% |
| $-1.12 - $6.90 | 8 |
| $6.90 - $14.93 | 54 |
| $14.93 - $22.95 | 129 |
| $22.95 - $30.98 | 173 |
| $30.98 - $39.00 | 213 |
| $39.00 - $47.03 | 146 |
| $47.03 - $55.05 | 110 |
| $55.05 - $63.08 | 68 |
| $63.08 - $71.10 | 48 |
| $71.10 - $79.13 | 18 |
| $79.13 - $87.15 | 13 |
| $87.15 - $95.18 | 10 |
| $95.18 - $103.20 | 3 |
| $103.20 - $111.23 | 3 |
| $111.23 - $119.25 | 2 |
| $119.25 - $127.28 | 0 |
| $127.28 - $135.30 | 0 |
| $135.30 - $143.33 | 1 |
| $143.33 - $151.35 | 0 |
| $151.35 - $159.38 | 0 |