Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $114.35 |
| 5Y Range | 1,865.77 – 2,731.08 |
| 5Y Selected | 2,298.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $333.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 192.05% |
| 10Y Range | 1,502.39 – 1,992.90 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,747.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $253.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 122.07% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8667 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5869 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0911 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0003 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2535 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1181 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0309 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0001 |
| Safety Score | 0.1453 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 20.67% | 18.81% | 16.96% | 15.11% | 13.26% | 11.41% | 9.56% | 7.70% | 5.85% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 47,726.96 | 56,706.34 | 66,325.04 | 76,347.13 | 86,469.83 | 96,333.48 | 105,538.41 | 113,668.58 | 120,320.19 | 125,133.00 |
| EBITDA | 16,788.95 | 19,947.63 | 23,331.21 | 26,856.68 | 30,417.56 | 33,887.30 | 37,125.32 | 39,985.28 | 42,325.12 | 44,018.13 |
| D&A | -3,591.21 | -4,266.86 | -4,990.62 | -5,744.73 | -6,506.41 | -7,248.60 | -7,941.22 | -8,552.98 | -9,053.48 | -9,415.62 |
| EBIT | 13,197.74 | 15,680.77 | 18,340.59 | 21,111.96 | 23,911.15 | 26,638.70 | 29,184.10 | 31,432.30 | 33,271.64 | 34,602.51 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,714.91 | -3,225.69 | -3,772.84 | -4,342.94 | -4,918.76 | -5,479.84 | -6,003.46 | -6,465.94 | -6,844.31 | -7,118.08 |
| NOPAT | 10,482.83 | 12,455.08 | 14,567.75 | 16,769.02 | 18,992.39 | 21,158.85 | 23,180.64 | 24,966.37 | 26,427.34 | 27,484.43 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,576.14 | -3,060.82 | -3,580.01 | -4,120.97 | -4,667.36 | -5,199.77 | -5,696.62 | -6,135.46 | -6,494.49 | -6,754.27 |
| NWC Investment | 67,564.74 | 74,222.29 | 79,506.84 | 82,841.08 | 83,672.85 | 81,531.47 | 76,086.63 | 67,202.82 | 54,981.26 | 39,781.98 |
| (+) D&A | 3,591.21 | 4,266.86 | 4,990.62 | 5,744.73 | 6,506.41 | 7,248.60 | 7,941.22 | 8,552.98 | 9,053.48 | 9,415.62 |
| Free Cash Flow | 79,062.64 | 87,883.41 | 95,485.20 | 101,233.86 | 104,504.29 | 104,739.16 | 101,511.88 | 94,586.70 | 83,967.59 | 69,927.75 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 | 721,465,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 78,377.18 | 84,432.80 | 84,085.98 | 81,714.01 | 77,319.32 | 71,030.72 | 63,101.14 | 53,893.16 | 43,852.91 | 33,474.92 | Raw: 1,571,023.02 1,112,828.05 |
Raw: 1,051,230.62 481,791.98 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,518,757.33 | 1,153,074.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | -70,748.25 | -70,748.25 |
| Equity Value | 1,589,505.58 | 1,223,822.36 |
| (/) Shares Out | 721.47 | 721.47 |
| Fair Value | $2,203.16 | $1,696.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.47% | 85.47% |
| Buy Price | $320.12 | $246.47 |
| Current Price | $114.35 | $114.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 179.95% | 115.54% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 78,305.70 | 84,079.16 | 82,973.25 | 79,900.30 | 74,916.47 | 68,198.19 | 60,034.54 | 50,808.34 | 40,967.28 | 30,988.15 | Raw: 1,280,966.77 875,167.78 |
Raw: 857,143.06 362,000.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,275,342.66 | 1,013,172.25 |
| (-) Net Debt | -70,748.25 | -70,748.25 |
| Equity Value | 1,346,090.91 | 1,083,920.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 721.47 | 721.47 |
| Fair Value | $1,865.77 | $1,502.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.47% | 85.47% |
| Buy Price | $271.10 | $218.30 |
| Current Price | $114.35 | $114.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 137.08% | 90.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 78,449.39 | 84,791.20 | 85,224.08 | 83,586.16 | 79,822.45 | 74,008.62 | 66,354.82 | 57,196.31 | 46,971.23 | 36,186.97 | Raw: 2,025,121.23 1,487,760.75 |
Raw: 1,355,084.82 674,466.30 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,899,634.02 | 1,367,057.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | -70,748.25 | -70,748.25 |
| Equity Value | 1,970,382.27 | 1,437,805.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 721.47 | 721.47 |
| Fair Value | $2,731.08 | $1,992.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.47% | 85.47% |
| Buy Price | $396.83 | $289.57 |
| Current Price | $114.35 | $114.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 247.03% | 153.23% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 73,859.18 | 135,005.78 | 246,774.49 | 451,074.37 | 824,510.20 | 1,507,106.42 | 2,754,810.97 | 5,035,466.24 | 9,204,232.36 | 16,824,240.16 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 7.39 | 13.50 | 24.68 | 45.11 | 82.45 | 150.71 | 275.48 | 503.55 | 920.42 | 1,682.42 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 6.87 | 10.90 | 18.26 | 30.59 | 51.25 | 85.87 | 143.87 | 241.05 | 403.87 | 676.66 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $50.33 | 29.39% | $17.61 | -65.01% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $47.07 | 16.36% | $178.46 | 279.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $53.86 | 4.45% | $118.50 | 120.02% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $47.38 | 3.76% | $129.59 | 173.51% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $41.22 | 8.56% | $157.53 | 282.18% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $40.57 | 11.61% | $160.24 | 294.97% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $34.94 | 7.82% | $77.74 | 122.49% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $25.70 | 4.67% | $110.96 | 331.74% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $19.91 | 3.00% | $105.91 | 431.94% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $30.20 | 2.72% | $92.55 | 206.45% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $27.97 | 3.16% | $90.07 | 222.01% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $28.33 | 14.32% | $133.43 | 371.00% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $48.76 | 4.36% | $89.97 | 84.51% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $41.73 | -6.76% | $54.69 | 31.06% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $33.76 | -10.44% | $-13.65 | -140.45% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $35.42 | -6.61% | $50.02 | 41.21% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $35.10 | 15.56% | $147.39 | 319.91% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $25.40 | 16.87% | $128.50 | 405.92% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $43.24 | 10.73% | $190.05 | 339.52% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $58.49 | -0.22% | $-42.60 | -172.83% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $42.40 | -6.26% | $-20.81 | -149.07% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $42.66 | -4.45% | $24.64 | -42.24% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $30.64 | 1.09% | $15.02 | -50.97% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $17.89 | 8.16% | $22.29 | 24.61% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $12.85 | 9.73% | $46.45 | 261.48% |
| $1,303.12 - $1,381.73 | 12 |
| $1,381.73 - $1,460.33 | 40 |
| $1,460.33 - $1,538.93 | 106 |
| $1,538.93 - $1,617.53 | 164 |
| $1,617.53 - $1,696.13 | 184 |
| $1,696.13 - $1,774.73 | 160 |
| $1,774.73 - $1,853.33 | 132 |
| $1,853.33 - $1,931.93 | 71 |
| $1,931.93 - $2,010.53 | 53 |
| $2,010.53 - $2,089.13 | 34 |
| $2,089.13 - $2,167.73 | 19 |
| $2,167.73 - $2,246.33 | 7 |
| $2,246.33 - $2,324.93 | 5 |
| $2,324.93 - $2,403.53 | 5 |
| $2,403.53 - $2,482.13 | 4 |
| $2,482.13 - $2,560.73 | 1 |
| $2,560.73 - $2,639.33 | 2 |
| $2,639.33 - $2,717.93 | 0 |
| $2,717.93 - $2,796.53 | 0 |
| $2,796.53 - $2,875.13 | 1 |