Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $107.50 |
| 5Y Range | 167.20 – 393.66 |
| 5Y Selected | 280.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.05% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $52.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.56% |
| 10Y Range | 165.96 – 372.80 |
| 10Y Selected | 269.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.05% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $50.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.47% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2176 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2329 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7644 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0010 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2268 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2933 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0001 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3144 |
| Safety Score | 0.1857 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -6.46% | -5.30% | -4.14% | -2.97% | -1.81% | -0.65% | 0.51% | 1.68% | 2.84% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 377.48 | 357.48 | 342.69 | 332.50 | 326.48 | 324.36 | 326.03 | 331.49 | 340.90 | 354.53 |
| EBITDA | 42.38 | 40.13 | 38.47 | 37.33 | 36.65 | 36.42 | 36.60 | 37.22 | 38.27 | 39.80 |
| D&A | -15.69 | -14.86 | -14.25 | -13.82 | -13.57 | -13.48 | -13.55 | -13.78 | -14.17 | -14.74 |
| EBIT | 26.69 | 25.27 | 24.23 | 23.51 | 23.08 | 22.93 | 23.05 | 23.44 | 24.10 | 25.07 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -8.30 | -7.86 | -7.53 | -7.31 | -7.18 | -7.13 | -7.17 | -7.29 | -7.49 | -7.79 |
| NOPAT | 18.39 | 17.42 | 16.70 | 16.20 | 15.91 | 15.80 | 15.89 | 16.15 | 16.61 | 17.27 |
| Capital Expenditures | -13.77 | -13.04 | -12.50 | -12.13 | -11.91 | -11.83 | -11.89 | -12.09 | -12.43 | -12.93 |
| NWC Investment | -0.27 | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| (+) D&A | 15.69 | 14.86 | 14.25 | 13.82 | 13.57 | 13.48 | 13.55 | 13.78 | 14.17 | 14.74 |
| Free Cash Flow | 20.04 | 19.03 | 18.29 | 17.79 | 17.51 | 17.43 | 17.56 | 17.90 | 18.44 | 19.22 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 | 1,856,011.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19.92 | 18.50 | 16.73 | 15.30 | 14.17 | 13.27 | 12.58 | 12.05 | 11.69 | 11.46 | Raw: 490.47 384.94 |
Raw: 538.51 311.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 469.55 | 456.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 35.06 | 35.06 |
| Equity Value | 434.49 | 421.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| Fair Value | $234.10 | $227.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.05% | 85.05% |
| Buy Price | $35.00 | $33.98 |
| Current Price | $107.50 | $107.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.44% | -68.39% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19.90 | 18.42 | 16.50 | 14.95 | 13.72 | 12.73 | 11.95 | 11.35 | 10.90 | 10.58 | Raw: 346.31 261.90 |
Raw: 380.23 202.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 345.39 | 343.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 35.06 | 35.06 |
| Equity Value | 310.33 | 308.02 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| Fair Value | $167.20 | $165.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.05% | 85.05% |
| Buy Price | $25.00 | $24.81 |
| Current Price | $107.50 | $107.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.75% | -76.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 19.94 | 18.58 | 16.96 | 15.66 | 14.64 | 13.84 | 13.24 | 12.81 | 12.54 | 12.41 | Raw: 834.50 679.91 |
Raw: 916.23 576.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 765.69 | 726.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | 35.06 | 35.06 |
| Equity Value | 730.64 | 691.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| Fair Value | $393.66 | $372.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.05% | 85.05% |
| Buy Price | $58.85 | $55.73 |
| Current Price | $107.50 | $107.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.25% | -48.15% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,722.08 | 2,836.53 | 4,672.20 | 7,695.85 | 12,676.26 | 20,879.78 | 34,392.24 | 56,649.38 | 93,310.35 | 153,696.69 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% | 64.72% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.17 | 0.28 | 0.47 | 0.77 | 1.27 | 2.09 | 3.44 | 5.66 | 9.33 | 15.37 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.91 | 1.41 | 2.18 | 3.38 | 5.23 | 8.10 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $87.40 | -10.14% | $42.00 | -51.94% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $87.40 | 2.75% | $47.66 | -45.47% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $87.40 | 1.20% | $0.59 | -99.32% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $87.40 | 6.63% | $228.86 | 161.85% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $87.40 | 14.39% | $132.73 | 51.86% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $87.40 | 17.02% | $273.87 | 213.35% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $87.40 | 12.91% | $181.73 | 107.93% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $87.40 | 4.46% | $103.47 | 18.39% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $87.40 | -0.39% | $30.34 | -65.29% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $87.40 | -0.89% | $86.64 | -0.87% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $87.40 | -0.04% | $47.58 | -45.57% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $87.40 | 1.20% | $39.75 | -54.52% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $87.40 | 1.64% | $71.73 | -17.93% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $87.40 | 2.08% | $-75.20 | -186.04% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $87.40 | 3.06% | $-7.53 | -108.61% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $87.40 | 6.39% | $0.79 | -99.10% |
| $97.85 - $148.88 | 32 |
| $148.88 - $199.91 | 275 |
| $199.91 - $250.95 | 305 |
| $250.95 - $301.98 | 185 |
| $301.98 - $353.01 | 98 |
| $353.01 - $404.04 | 39 |
| $404.04 - $455.07 | 17 |
| $455.07 - $506.10 | 11 |
| $506.10 - $557.14 | 10 |
| $557.14 - $608.17 | 9 |
| $608.17 - $659.20 | 2 |
| $659.20 - $710.23 | 4 |
| $710.23 - $761.26 | 4 |
| $761.26 - $812.29 | 2 |
| $812.29 - $863.32 | 3 |
| $863.32 - $914.36 | 1 |
| $914.36 - $965.39 | 1 |
| $965.39 - $1,016.42 | 0 |
| $1,016.42 - $1,067.45 | 1 |
| $1,067.45 - $1,118.48 | 1 |