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VGP N.V.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Real Estate - GeneralSector: Real Estate

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$97.40
5Y Range-1,545.56 – -741.57
5Y Selected-1,143.57
(-) Safety Margin83.98%
5Y Buy Price$-213.39
Upside (to Buy Price)-319.09%
10Y Range-1,862.24 – -901.62
10Y Selected-1,381.93
(-) Safety Margin83.98%
10Y Buy Price$-257.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-364.75%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9510
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6933
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1565
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0454
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7382
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3938
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2493
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0009
Safety Score0.1866

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth29.18%26.38%23.58%20.79%17.99%15.19%12.39%9.60%6.80%4.00%
Revenue162.15204.93253.25305.89360.91415.74467.26512.09546.90568.78
EBITDA69.1387.37107.97130.42153.87177.25199.21218.33233.17242.50
D&A-7.42-9.38-11.59-14.00-16.52-19.03-21.38-23.44-25.03-26.03
EBIT61.7177.9996.38116.42137.36158.22177.83194.89208.14216.47
Pro forma Taxes-6.77-8.55-10.57-12.77-15.07-17.35-19.50-21.38-22.83-23.74
NOPAT54.9469.4485.81103.65122.29140.87158.32173.52185.31192.72
Capital Expenditures-490.77-620.24-766.51-925.83-1,092.37-1,258.30-1,414.24-1,549.93-1,655.29-1,721.50
NWC Investment-67.43-78.75-88.97-96.91-101.30-100.93-94.85-82.54-64.09-40.28
(+) D&A7.429.3811.5914.0016.5219.0321.3823.4425.0326.03
Free Cash Flow-495.84-620.18-758.08-905.10-1,054.86-1,199.34-1,329.38-1,435.52-1,509.04-1,543.02
Diluted Shares Outstanding27,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.0027,291,312.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.81%Terminal Growth: 2.93%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.650.610.57
PV UFCF-492.59-601.67-688.59-769.73-839.92-894.10-927.89-938.11-923.31-883.93
Raw: -28,030.07
-21,595.79
Raw: -41,001.70
-22,727.30

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-24,988.30-30,687.14
(-) Net Debt1,971.631,971.63
Equity Value-26,959.93-32,658.77
(/) Shares Out27.2927.29
Fair Value$-987.86$-1,196.67
(-) Safety Margin83.98%83.98%
Buy Price$-158.25$-191.71
Current Price$97.40$97.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-262.48%-296.82%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.81%Terminal Growth: 2.43%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.660.620.570.53
PV UFCF-492.13-599.10-679.29-752.29-813.27-857.70-881.85-883.30-861.30-816.92
Raw: -20,107.69
-14,930.69
Raw: -29,413.04
-14,997.62

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-18,266.77-22,634.77
(-) Net Debt1,971.631,971.63
Equity Value-20,238.40-24,606.40
(/) Shares Out27.2927.29
Fair Value$-741.57$-901.62
(-) Safety Margin83.98%83.98%
Buy Price$-118.80$-144.44
Current Price$97.40$97.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-221.97%-248.30%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.81%Terminal Growth: 3.43%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.780.730.690.660.62
PV UFCF-493.05-604.28-698.11-787.75-867.71-932.41-976.79-996.89-990.43-957.15
Raw: -45,965.13
-36,757.94
Raw: -67,236.67
-40,546.79

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-40,208.86-48,851.37
(-) Net Debt1,971.631,971.63
Equity Value-42,180.48-50,822.99
(/) Shares Out27.2927.29
Fair Value$-1,545.56$-1,862.24
(-) Safety Margin83.98%83.98%
Buy Price$-247.60$-298.33
Current Price$97.40$97.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-354.21%-406.29%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$97.40
WACC Used6.8%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH158.67%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue717.061,854.814,797.7712,410.2632,101.2483,035.31214,784.94555,577.731,437,096.213,717,293.54
Constant Implied Growth158.67%158.67%158.67%158.67%158.67%158.67%158.67%158.67%158.67%158.67%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.070.190.481.243.218.3021.4855.56143.71371.73
Discount Factor0.950.850.800.750.700.650.610.570.540.50
Present Value of Implied FCF0.070.160.380.932.245.4313.1431.8377.08186.67

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$82.4930.04%$214.36159.87%
20182018-12-31$55.8032.67%$817.461,364.99%
20172017-12-31$59.004.52%$63.016.79%
20162016-12-31$84.47-0.71%$89.165.55%
20152015-12-31$31.012.53%$-20.07-164.73%
20142014-12-31$21.3513.10%$-10.53-149.31%
20132013-12-31$17.1318.56%$-134.18-883.33%
20122012-12-31$18.4828.40%$-32.98-278.48%
20112011-12-31$17.8449.75%$-238.14-1,434.84%
20102010-12-31$15.6024.20%$21.3236.67%
20092009-12-31$15.50-14.07%$-16.27-205.00%
20082008-12-31$15.82-50.47%$-8.52-153.86%
20072007-12-31$14.91-26.40%$-1.26-108.48%
20062006-12-31$14.5230.04%$-36.66-352.49%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-1,302.41
Median
$-1,176.10
10th Percentile
$-1,822.94
90th Percentile
$-904.60

Fair Value Distribution

$-7,134.65 - $-6,810.15
1
$-6,810.15 - $-6,485.65
0
$-6,485.65 - $-6,161.16
0
$-6,161.16 - $-5,836.66
0
$-5,836.66 - $-5,512.16
0
$-5,512.16 - $-5,187.67
0
$-5,187.67 - $-4,863.17
0
$-4,863.17 - $-4,538.67
0
$-4,538.67 - $-4,214.18
0
$-4,214.18 - $-3,889.68
2
$-3,889.68 - $-3,565.19
6
$-3,565.19 - $-3,240.69
4
$-3,240.69 - $-2,916.19
2
$-2,916.19 - $-2,591.70
9
$-2,591.70 - $-2,267.20
13
$-2,267.20 - $-1,942.70
37
$-1,942.70 - $-1,618.21
86
$-1,618.21 - $-1,293.71
207
$-1,293.71 - $-969.21
449
$-969.21 - $-644.72
183