Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $40.23 |
| 5Y Range | 17.88 – 28.86 |
| 5Y Selected | 23.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.29% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $12.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.22% |
| 10Y Range | 19.74 – 30.74 |
| 10Y Selected | 25.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.29% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $13.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.67% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9970 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9777 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5900 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5111 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7285 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7839 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8227 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9183 |
| Safety Score | 0.5471 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.66% | 7.25% | 6.84% | 6.44% | 6.03% | 5.63% | 5.22% | 4.81% | 4.41% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,456.70 | 1,562.32 | 1,669.25 | 1,776.72 | 1,883.89 | 1,989.86 | 2,093.71 | 2,194.47 | 2,291.17 | 2,382.82 |
| EBITDA | 445.58 | 477.88 | 510.59 | 543.46 | 576.24 | 608.66 | 640.43 | 671.25 | 700.82 | 728.86 |
| D&A | -75.91 | -81.41 | -86.98 | -92.58 | -98.17 | -103.69 | -109.10 | -114.35 | -119.39 | -124.17 |
| EBIT | 369.67 | 396.47 | 423.61 | 450.88 | 478.08 | 504.97 | 531.32 | 556.90 | 581.43 | 604.69 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 369.67 | 396.47 | 423.61 | 450.88 | 478.08 | 504.97 | 531.32 | 556.90 | 581.43 | 604.69 |
| Capital Expenditures | -27.06 | -29.02 | -31.01 | -33.00 | -34.99 | -36.96 | -38.89 | -40.76 | -42.56 | -44.26 |
| NWC Investment | 35.77 | 36.47 | 36.92 | 37.10 | 37.00 | 36.59 | 35.86 | 34.79 | 33.39 | 31.64 |
| (+) D&A | 75.91 | 81.41 | 86.98 | 92.58 | 98.17 | 103.69 | 109.10 | 114.35 | 119.39 | 124.17 |
| Free Cash Flow | 454.29 | 485.33 | 516.51 | 547.57 | 578.25 | 608.29 | 637.39 | 665.27 | 691.65 | 716.24 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 | 333,338,678.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 450.35 | 466.28 | 454.84 | 441.98 | 427.83 | 412.52 | 396.21 | 379.06 | 361.22 | 342.87 | Raw: 8,967.01 6,351.75 |
Raw: 11,106.80 5,090.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,593.03 | 9,223.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,218.02 | 1,218.02 |
| Equity Value | 7,375.02 | 8,005.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 333.34 | 333.34 |
| Fair Value | $22.12 | $24.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.29% | 45.29% |
| Buy Price | $12.10 | $13.14 |
| Current Price | $40.23 | $40.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.91% | -67.34% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 449.94 | 464.32 | 448.82 | 432.17 | 414.53 | 396.07 | 376.96 | 357.36 | 337.45 | 317.40 | Raw: 7,272.67 4,968.76 |
Raw: 9,008.15 3,804.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,178.55 | 7,799.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,218.02 | 1,218.02 |
| Equity Value | 5,960.54 | 6,581.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 333.34 | 333.34 |
| Fair Value | $17.88 | $19.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.29% | 45.29% |
| Buy Price | $9.78 | $10.80 |
| Current Price | $40.23 | $40.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.68% | -73.15% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 450.77 | 468.25 | 461.00 | 452.11 | 441.68 | 429.82 | 416.64 | 402.29 | 386.91 | 370.65 | Raw: 11,656.24 8,563.29 |
Raw: 14,437.75 7,186.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,837.10 | 11,466.22 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,218.02 | 1,218.02 |
| Equity Value | 9,619.08 | 10,248.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 333.34 | 333.34 |
| Fair Value | $28.86 | $30.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.29% | 45.29% |
| Buy Price | $15.79 | $16.82 |
| Current Price | $40.23 | $40.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.76% | -58.19% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,821.50 | 10,002.51 | 26,180.90 | 68,526.71 | 179,363.99 | 469,472.97 | 1,228,813.41 | 3,216,335.11 | 8,418,537.29 | 22,034,945.87 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% | 161.74% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.38 | 1.00 | 2.62 | 6.85 | 17.94 | 46.95 | 122.88 | 321.63 | 841.85 | 2,203.49 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.36 | 0.81 | 1.94 | 4.65 | 11.15 | 26.75 | 64.18 | 153.97 | 369.39 | 886.23 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $33.49 | 11.01% | $13.79 | -58.83% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $33.49 | 9.16% | $11.45 | -65.81% |
| $15.68 - $17.28 | 16 |
| $17.28 - $18.89 | 51 |
| $18.89 - $20.50 | 107 |
| $20.50 - $22.11 | 128 |
| $22.11 - $23.72 | 159 |
| $23.72 - $25.33 | 154 |
| $25.33 - $26.93 | 133 |
| $26.93 - $28.54 | 86 |
| $28.54 - $30.15 | 54 |
| $30.15 - $31.76 | 38 |
| $31.76 - $33.37 | 29 |
| $33.37 - $34.97 | 11 |
| $34.97 - $36.58 | 16 |
| $36.58 - $38.19 | 10 |
| $38.19 - $39.80 | 2 |
| $39.80 - $41.41 | 4 |
| $41.41 - $43.01 | 1 |
| $43.01 - $44.62 | 0 |
| $44.62 - $46.23 | 0 |
| $46.23 - $47.84 | 1 |