Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.36 |
| 5Y Range | 32.74 – 47.81 |
| 5Y Selected | 40.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.34% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 150.18% |
| 10Y Range | 34.47 – 48.96 |
| 10Y Selected | 41.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.34% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $6.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 159.11% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5794 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4249 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9267 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1240 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8926 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1061 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1223 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1145 |
| Safety Score | 0.1466 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.73% | -0.21% | 0.32% | 0.85% | 1.37% | 1.90% | 2.42% | 2.95% | 3.47% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 186.85 | 186.47 | 187.06 | 188.65 | 191.23 | 194.86 | 199.58 | 205.47 | 212.60 | 221.11 |
| EBITDA | 66.52 | 66.39 | 66.60 | 67.16 | 68.08 | 69.37 | 71.06 | 73.15 | 75.69 | 78.72 |
| D&A | -0.97 | -0.97 | -0.97 | -0.98 | -0.99 | -1.01 | -1.04 | -1.07 | -1.10 | -1.15 |
| EBIT | 65.55 | 65.42 | 65.63 | 66.18 | 67.09 | 68.36 | 70.02 | 72.08 | 74.59 | 77.57 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -13.60 | -13.58 | -13.62 | -13.73 | -13.92 | -14.19 | -14.53 | -14.96 | -15.48 | -16.10 |
| NOPAT | 51.95 | 51.84 | 52.01 | 52.45 | 53.17 | 54.18 | 55.49 | 57.12 | 59.11 | 61.47 |
| Capital Expenditures | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.23 |
| NWC Investment | -0.25 | -0.07 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 1.08 | 1.31 | 1.56 |
| (+) D&A | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 52.47 | 52.54 | 52.89 | 53.52 | 54.44 | 55.65 | 57.18 | 59.06 | 61.30 | 63.95 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 | 21,087,379.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.02 | 50.48 | 46.58 | 43.20 | 40.27 | 37.74 | 35.55 | 33.65 | 32.02 | 30.61 | Raw: 808.06 572.39 |
Raw: 949.32 435.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 804.94 | 837.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | -9.77 | -9.77 |
| Equity Value | 814.70 | 846.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 21.09 | 21.09 |
| Fair Value | $38.63 | $40.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.34% | 85.34% |
| Buy Price | $5.66 | $5.89 |
| Current Price | $2.36 | $2.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 139.99% | 149.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 51.97 | 50.27 | 45.96 | 42.24 | 39.02 | 36.23 | 33.82 | 31.72 | 29.91 | 28.34 | Raw: 660.27 451.10 |
Raw: 775.70 327.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 680.57 | 717.09 |
| (-) Net Debt | -9.77 | -9.77 |
| Equity Value | 690.33 | 726.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 21.09 | 21.09 |
| Fair Value | $32.74 | $34.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.34% | 85.34% |
| Buy Price | $4.80 | $5.05 |
| Current Price | $2.36 | $2.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 103.36% | 114.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52.06 | 50.70 | 47.21 | 44.19 | 41.58 | 39.32 | 37.38 | 35.71 | 34.29 | 33.09 | Raw: 1,038.18 762.70 |
Raw: 1,219.67 607.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 998.44 | 1,022.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | -9.77 | -9.77 |
| Equity Value | 1,008.20 | 1,032.37 |
| (/) Shares Out | 21.09 | 21.09 |
| Fair Value | $47.81 | $48.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.34% | 85.34% |
| Buy Price | $7.01 | $7.18 |
| Current Price | $2.36 | $2.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 196.99% | 204.11% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 364.85 | 639.31 | 1,120.24 | 1,962.96 | 3,439.61 | 6,027.08 | 10,561.00 | 18,505.60 | 32,426.60 | 56,819.78 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 0.60 | 1.06 | 1.85 | 3.24 | 5.68 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 0.89 | 1.42 | 2.29 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.97 | -1.36% | $-2.34 | -218.79% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.41 | -1.69% | $1.83 | -23.91% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.40 | 0.14% | $12.22 | 259.39% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $4.10 | 4.46% | $10.04 | 144.79% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $4.99 | 8.44% | $11.31 | 126.59% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $4.03 | 8.95% | $9.87 | 144.92% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $4.09 | 6.05% | $10.00 | 144.58% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.09 | 1.00% | $3.36 | 8.60% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.97 | 0.58% | $5.42 | 175.34% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $2.03 | 6.71% | $3.80 | 87.35% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1.28 | 11.33% | $-1.89 | -248.04% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.74 | 12.94% | $-7.69 | -1,135.76% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $1.40 | 8.85% | $-1.26 | -190.07% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $2.96 | -0.75% | $-1.13 | -138.11% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.70 | -6.38% | $5.26 | 94.67% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $3.10 | -7.42% | $2.22 | -28.26% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $3.00 | -5.91% | $5.06 | 68.81% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.63 | 5.76% | $11.71 | 618.65% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.20 | -2.69% | $10.33 | 369.62% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $2.00 | -7.87% | $7.64 | 282.09% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $2.31 | -10.19% | $1.30 | -43.56% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $4.88 | -6.91% | $3.27 | -32.92% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $5.06 | 9.22% | $10.70 | 111.54% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $3.06 | 9.50% | $1.63 | -46.59% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $2.31 | 8.41% | $-9.75 | -522.15% |
| $28.88 - $30.89 | 12 |
| $30.89 - $32.91 | 52 |
| $32.91 - $34.92 | 88 |
| $34.92 - $36.93 | 130 |
| $36.93 - $38.95 | 158 |
| $38.95 - $40.96 | 113 |
| $40.96 - $42.98 | 114 |
| $42.98 - $44.99 | 77 |
| $44.99 - $47.00 | 87 |
| $47.00 - $49.02 | 54 |
| $49.02 - $51.03 | 41 |
| $51.03 - $53.04 | 28 |
| $53.04 - $55.06 | 17 |
| $55.06 - $57.07 | 8 |
| $57.07 - $59.08 | 5 |
| $59.08 - $61.10 | 7 |
| $61.10 - $63.11 | 2 |
| $63.11 - $65.12 | 4 |
| $65.12 - $67.14 | 2 |
| $67.14 - $69.15 | 1 |