Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $294.42 |
| 5Y Range | 86.26 – 133.65 |
| 5Y Selected | 109.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.70% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.05% |
| 10Y Range | 102.93 – 156.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 129.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.70% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $27.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.60% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9732 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6804 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8290 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5193 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8144 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4799 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0017 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1134 |
| Safety Score | 0.2130 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.68% | 9.05% | 8.41% | 7.78% | 7.15% | 6.52% | 5.89% | 5.26% | 4.63% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,912.21 | 4,266.07 | 4,625.04 | 4,985.05 | 5,341.64 | 5,690.05 | 6,025.31 | 6,342.32 | 6,636.01 | 6,901.45 |
| EBITDA | 659.80 | 719.48 | 780.02 | 840.73 | 900.87 | 959.63 | 1,016.18 | 1,069.64 | 1,119.17 | 1,163.94 |
| D&A | -169.51 | -184.84 | -200.40 | -216.00 | -231.45 | -246.54 | -261.07 | -274.80 | -287.53 | -299.03 |
| EBIT | 490.29 | 534.64 | 579.62 | 624.74 | 669.43 | 713.09 | 755.11 | 794.84 | 831.64 | 864.91 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -83.18 | -90.70 | -98.33 | -105.99 | -113.57 | -120.98 | -128.10 | -134.84 | -141.09 | -146.73 |
| NOPAT | 407.11 | 443.94 | 481.29 | 518.75 | 555.86 | 592.12 | 627.00 | 659.99 | 690.55 | 718.18 |
| Capital Expenditures | -139.29 | -151.89 | -164.67 | -177.48 | -190.18 | -202.59 | -214.52 | -225.81 | -236.26 | -245.71 |
| NWC Investment | -97.07 | -99.53 | -100.96 | -101.25 | -100.29 | -97.99 | -94.29 | -89.16 | -82.60 | -74.66 |
| (+) D&A | 169.51 | 184.84 | 200.40 | 216.00 | 231.45 | 246.54 | 261.07 | 274.80 | 287.53 | 299.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | 340.26 | 377.37 | 416.06 | 456.01 | 496.83 | 538.08 | 579.26 | 619.83 | 659.22 | 696.84 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 | 61,394,750.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/31/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 334.39 | 339.63 | 343.22 | 344.81 | 344.35 | 341.84 | 337.31 | 330.84 | 322.52 | 312.49 | Raw: 7,524.05 4,992.69 |
Raw: 10,552.89 4,530.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,699.09 | 7,882.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 270.95 | 270.95 |
| Equity Value | 6,428.14 | 7,611.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 61.39 | 61.39 |
| Fair Value | $104.70 | $123.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.70% | 78.70% |
| Buy Price | $22.30 | $26.41 |
| Current Price | $294.42 | $294.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.43% | -91.03% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 333.78 | 335.90 | 336.37 | 334.86 | 331.37 | 325.97 | 318.73 | 309.77 | 299.24 | 287.30 | Raw: 6,127.25 3,894.79 |
Raw: 8,593.80 3,376.81 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,567.08 | 6,590.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 270.95 | 270.95 |
| Equity Value | 5,296.12 | 6,319.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 61.39 | 61.39 |
| Fair Value | $86.26 | $102.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.70% | 78.70% |
| Buy Price | $18.37 | $21.92 |
| Current Price | $294.42 | $294.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.76% | -92.55% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 335.00 | 343.43 | 350.28 | 355.16 | 357.96 | 358.64 | 357.16 | 353.55 | 347.85 | 340.15 | Raw: 9,717.83 6,734.23 |
Raw: 13,629.80 6,399.11 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,476.07 | 9,898.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 270.95 | 270.95 |
| Equity Value | 8,205.12 | 9,627.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 61.39 | 61.39 |
| Fair Value | $133.65 | $156.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.70% | 78.70% |
| Buy Price | $28.47 | $33.40 |
| Current Price | $294.42 | $294.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.33% | -88.66% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,705.60 | 21,246.48 | 51,853.13 | 126,550.25 | 308,852.42 | 753,770.32 | 1,839,615.49 | 4,489,676.82 | 10,957,288.65 | 26,741,830.09 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% | 144.06% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.87 | 2.12 | 5.19 | 12.66 | 30.89 | 75.38 | 183.96 | 448.97 | 1,095.73 | 2,674.18 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.82 | 1.75 | 3.92 | 8.77 | 19.62 | 43.89 | 98.19 | 219.65 | 491.37 | 1,099.21 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $80.16 | 14.03% | $121.34 | 51.37% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $107.83 | 9.61% | $90.25 | -16.31% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $79.81 | 0.43% | $24.03 | -69.90% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $77.61 | -2.29% | $39.06 | -49.67% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $62.48 | 1.32% | $56.48 | -9.60% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $40.70 | 7.22% | $-11.65 | -128.62% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $47.62 | 9.38% | $11.72 | -75.40% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $40.83 | 5.37% | $15.19 | -62.81% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $33.64 | 4.60% | $15.77 | -53.11% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $27.40 | 4.83% | $12.83 | -53.19% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $32.42 | 5.79% | $38.97 | 20.22% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $24.26 | 8.24% | $53.06 | 118.72% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $35.27 | 8.32% | $28.91 | -18.02% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $31.95 | 9.16% | $28.08 | -12.11% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $16.77 | 11.11% | $17.34 | 3.40% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $14.17 | 13.96% | $16.82 | 18.72% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $11.25 | 15.15% | $27.31 | 142.77% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $7.23 | 13.83% | $15.30 | 111.67% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $7.90 | 12.96% | $25.33 | 220.58% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $8.17 | 7.64% | $15.91 | 94.70% |
| 2000 | 2000-09-30 | $7.43 | 4.26% | $5.84 | -21.35% |
| 1999 | 1999-09-30 | $4.16 | 2.01% | $6.47 | 55.61% |
| 1998 | 1998-09-30 | $3.83 | 0.94% | $-39.75 | -1,137.93% |
| 1997 | 1997-09-30 | $5.83 | 7.80% | $10.48 | 79.69% |
| 1996 | 1996-09-30 | $3.92 | 10.86% | $10.36 | 164.41% |
| $84.64 - $92.25 | 14 |
| $92.25 - $99.87 | 58 |
| $99.87 - $107.48 | 96 |
| $107.48 - $115.10 | 145 |
| $115.10 - $122.71 | 174 |
| $122.71 - $130.32 | 145 |
| $130.32 - $137.94 | 95 |
| $137.94 - $145.55 | 84 |
| $145.55 - $153.17 | 73 |
| $153.17 - $160.78 | 39 |
| $160.78 - $168.40 | 35 |
| $168.40 - $176.01 | 16 |
| $176.01 - $183.62 | 11 |
| $183.62 - $191.24 | 8 |
| $191.24 - $198.85 | 0 |
| $198.85 - $206.47 | 1 |
| $206.47 - $214.08 | 3 |
| $214.08 - $221.70 | 1 |
| $221.70 - $229.31 | 0 |
| $229.31 - $236.92 | 2 |