Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $13.84 |
| 5Y Range | 106.87 – 246.00 |
| 5Y Selected | 176.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.26% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $51.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 271.22% |
| 10Y Range | 117.56 – 262.68 |
| 10Y Selected | 190.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.26% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $55.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 300.02% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9697 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5086 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6414 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5760 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1133 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3529 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7556 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6605 |
| Safety Score | 0.2912 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.73% | 7.32% | 6.90% | 6.49% | 6.07% | 5.66% | 5.24% | 4.83% | 4.41% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10,333.78 | 11,089.81 | 11,855.19 | 12,624.25 | 13,390.86 | 14,148.53 | 14,890.41 | 15,609.47 | 16,298.56 | 16,950.50 |
| EBITDA | 6,379.61 | 6,846.35 | 7,318.86 | 7,793.64 | 8,266.91 | 8,734.66 | 9,192.66 | 9,636.58 | 10,061.99 | 10,464.47 |
| D&A | -854.78 | -917.31 | -980.62 | -1,044.24 | -1,107.65 | -1,170.32 | -1,231.68 | -1,291.16 | -1,348.16 | -1,402.09 |
| EBIT | 5,524.83 | 5,929.04 | 6,338.23 | 6,749.40 | 7,159.26 | 7,564.34 | 7,960.98 | 8,345.42 | 8,713.83 | 9,062.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,898.54 | -2,037.44 | -2,178.06 | -2,319.35 | -2,460.19 | -2,599.39 | -2,735.69 | -2,867.80 | -2,994.40 | -3,114.17 |
| NOPAT | 3,626.29 | 3,891.60 | 4,160.18 | 4,430.05 | 4,699.07 | 4,964.95 | 5,225.29 | 5,477.62 | 5,719.43 | 5,948.21 |
| Capital Expenditures | -550.18 | -590.43 | -631.18 | -672.12 | -712.94 | -753.28 | -792.77 | -831.06 | -867.75 | -902.45 |
| NWC Investment | 13.58 | 13.85 | 14.02 | 14.09 | 14.04 | 13.88 | 13.59 | 13.17 | 12.62 | 11.94 |
| (+) D&A | 854.78 | 917.31 | 980.62 | 1,044.24 | 1,107.65 | 1,170.32 | 1,231.68 | 1,291.16 | 1,348.16 | 1,402.09 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,944.47 | 4,232.33 | 4,523.64 | 4,816.25 | 5,107.82 | 5,395.87 | 5,677.79 | 5,950.89 | 6,212.47 | 6,459.78 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 | 910,590,934.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,919.99 | 4,115.37 | 4,133.07 | 4,132.17 | 4,117.74 | 4,087.33 | 4,041.21 | 3,979.88 | 3,903.97 | 3,814.30 | Raw: 145,577.75 113,761.59 |
Raw: 184,109.80 105,378.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 134,179.92 | 145,623.28 |
| (-) Net Debt | -143.07 | -143.07 |
| Equity Value | 134,322.99 | 145,766.36 |
| (/) Shares Out | 910.59 | 910.59 |
| Fair Value | $147.51 | $160.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.26% | 74.26% |
| Buy Price | $37.97 | $41.20 |
| Current Price | $13.84 | $13.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 174.35% | 197.72% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,916.32 | 4,098.09 | 4,077.40 | 4,038.18 | 3,986.63 | 3,920.34 | 3,840.03 | 3,746.55 | 3,640.88 | 3,524.14 | Raw: 102,323.83 77,053.63 |
Raw: 129,407.27 68,114.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 97,170.25 | 106,903.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | -143.07 | -143.07 |
| Equity Value | 97,313.32 | 107,046.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 910.59 | 910.59 |
| Fair Value | $106.87 | $117.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.26% | 74.26% |
| Buy Price | $27.51 | $30.26 |
| Current Price | $13.84 | $13.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 98.76% | 118.64% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,923.69 | 4,132.89 | 4,190.03 | 4,229.26 | 4,254.47 | 4,263.10 | 4,254.98 | 4,230.15 | 4,188.83 | 4,131.43 | Raw: 250,402.35 203,130.52 |
Raw: 316,679.76 197,256.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 223,860.85 | 239,055.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | -143.07 | -143.07 |
| Equity Value | 224,003.92 | 239,198.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 910.59 | 910.59 |
| Fair Value | $246.00 | $262.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.26% | 74.26% |
| Buy Price | $63.32 | $67.61 |
| Current Price | $13.84 | $13.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 357.51% | 388.55% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 35,024.91 | 64,560.08 | 119,001.13 | 219,350.23 | 404,319.88 | 745,267.36 | 1,373,722.80 | 2,532,130.65 | 4,667,379.49 | 8,603,201.93 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.50 | 6.46 | 11.90 | 21.94 | 40.43 | 74.53 | 137.37 | 253.21 | 466.74 | 860.32 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.35 | 5.54 | 9.59 | 16.62 | 28.78 | 49.84 | 86.33 | 149.51 | 258.96 | 448.50 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $8.26 | 13.87% | $48.46 | 486.71% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $7.16 | 5.72% | $32.92 | 359.72% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7.25 | -1.95% | $15.13 | 108.73% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $9.05 | -2.31% | $10.48 | 15.80% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $9.05 | -1.44% | $-17.21 | -290.15% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $10.80 | 6.51% | $22.37 | 107.13% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $11.50 | 3.93% | $22.06 | 91.84% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $9.45 | 2.95% | $22.89 | 142.24% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $12.70 | 1.83% | $-4.33 | -134.11% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $12.98 | 5.32% | $-18.87 | -245.40% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.00 | 13.16% | $0.40 | -95.61% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $6.26 | 13.87% | $0.20 | -96.73% |
| $90.46 - $127.47 | 191 |
| $127.47 - $164.48 | 380 |
| $164.48 - $201.49 | 202 |
| $201.49 - $238.49 | 100 |
| $238.49 - $275.50 | 57 |
| $275.50 - $312.51 | 22 |
| $312.51 - $349.51 | 17 |
| $349.51 - $386.52 | 4 |
| $386.52 - $423.53 | 4 |
| $423.53 - $460.53 | 6 |
| $460.53 - $497.54 | 3 |
| $497.54 - $534.55 | 7 |
| $534.55 - $571.56 | 0 |
| $571.56 - $608.56 | 1 |
| $608.56 - $645.57 | 2 |
| $645.57 - $682.58 | 1 |
| $682.58 - $719.58 | 1 |
| $719.58 - $756.59 | 0 |
| $756.59 - $793.60 | 1 |
| $793.60 - $830.60 | 0 |