Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $266.44 |
| 5Y Range | 84.91 – 127.01 |
| 5Y Selected | 105.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.73% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $62.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.43% |
| 10Y Range | 96.66 – 142.10 |
| 10Y Selected | 119.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.73% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $70.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.44% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5787 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9133 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0848 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7912 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2090 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8351 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0080 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7666 |
| Safety Score | 0.5927 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.09% | 8.52% | 7.96% | 7.39% | 6.83% | 6.26% | 5.70% | 5.13% | 4.57% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,155.57 | 3,424.49 | 3,696.97 | 3,970.23 | 4,241.25 | 4,506.80 | 4,763.49 | 5,007.89 | 5,236.51 | 5,445.97 |
| EBITDA | 830.94 | 901.75 | 973.50 | 1,045.46 | 1,116.82 | 1,186.75 | 1,254.34 | 1,318.69 | 1,378.90 | 1,434.05 |
| D&A | -163.72 | -177.68 | -191.81 | -205.99 | -220.05 | -233.83 | -247.15 | -259.83 | -271.69 | -282.56 |
| EBIT | 667.21 | 724.07 | 781.69 | 839.47 | 896.77 | 952.92 | 1,007.19 | 1,058.87 | 1,107.21 | 1,151.50 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -121.86 | -132.24 | -142.77 | -153.32 | -163.78 | -174.04 | -183.95 | -193.39 | -202.22 | -210.31 |
| NOPAT | 545.35 | 591.83 | 638.92 | 686.15 | 732.99 | 778.88 | 823.24 | 865.48 | 904.99 | 941.19 |
| Capital Expenditures | -306.51 | -332.63 | -359.09 | -385.64 | -411.96 | -437.75 | -462.69 | -486.42 | -508.63 | -528.98 |
| NWC Investment | -48.64 | -49.76 | -50.42 | -50.57 | -50.15 | -49.14 | -47.50 | -45.23 | -42.31 | -38.76 |
| (+) D&A | 163.72 | 177.68 | 191.81 | 205.99 | 220.05 | 233.83 | 247.15 | 259.83 | 271.69 | 282.56 |
| Free Cash Flow | 353.93 | 387.12 | 421.22 | 455.93 | 490.93 | 525.82 | 560.20 | 593.66 | 625.74 | 656.01 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 | 73,050,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 350.86 | 371.92 | 370.93 | 368.02 | 363.22 | 356.59 | 348.23 | 338.25 | 326.80 | 314.04 | Raw: 7,573.55 5,364.69 |
Raw: 10,120.31 4,638.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,189.64 | 8,147.12 |
| (-) Net Debt | -203.80 | -203.80 |
| Equity Value | 7,393.44 | 8,350.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 73.05 | 73.05 |
| Fair Value | $101.21 | $114.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.73% | 40.73% |
| Buy Price | $59.99 | $67.76 |
| Current Price | $266.44 | $266.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.49% | -74.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 350.54 | 370.36 | 366.02 | 359.85 | 351.93 | 342.37 | 331.31 | 318.89 | 305.30 | 290.71 | Raw: 6,148.01 4,200.37 |
Raw: 8,215.41 3,469.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,999.08 | 6,856.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | -203.80 | -203.80 |
| Equity Value | 6,202.88 | 7,060.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 73.05 | 73.05 |
| Fair Value | $84.91 | $96.66 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.73% | 40.73% |
| Buy Price | $50.33 | $57.29 |
| Current Price | $266.44 | $266.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.11% | -78.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 351.18 | 373.49 | 375.95 | 376.45 | 374.98 | 371.54 | 366.18 | 358.98 | 350.04 | 339.48 | Raw: 9,830.89 7,222.29 |
Raw: 13,136.72 6,538.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,074.35 | 10,176.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | -203.80 | -203.80 |
| Equity Value | 9,278.15 | 10,380.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 73.05 | 73.05 |
| Fair Value | $127.01 | $142.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.73% | 40.73% |
| Buy Price | $75.28 | $84.22 |
| Current Price | $266.44 | $266.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.75% | -68.39% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,541.53 | 18,850.13 | 47,116.13 | 117,767.32 | 294,360.81 | 735,758.29 | 1,839,036.46 | 4,596,693.19 | 11,489,488.49 | 28,718,111.11 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% | 149.95% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.75 | 1.89 | 4.71 | 11.78 | 29.44 | 73.58 | 183.90 | 459.67 | 1,148.95 | 2,871.81 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.70 | 1.52 | 3.49 | 7.99 | 18.30 | 41.92 | 96.05 | 220.05 | 504.14 | 1,155.03 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $150.33 | 6.64% | $66.80 | -55.57% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $98.03 | 12.22% | $64.91 | -33.78% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $98.67 | 14.47% | $50.25 | -49.07% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $84.83 | 13.50% | $17.55 | -79.31% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $60.22 | 8.29% | $23.82 | -60.45% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $53.24 | 6.20% | $18.54 | -65.17% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $49.06 | 4.05% | $14.64 | -70.16% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $27.38 | 2.20% | $9.83 | -64.08% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $18.98 | 1.88% | $4.40 | -76.81% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $20.60 | 2.60% | $12.61 | -38.79% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $19.60 | 4.85% | $3.95 | -79.82% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $18.89 | 5.16% | $-5.80 | -130.72% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $20.30 | 3.71% | $-4.44 | -121.86% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $25.62 | 2.75% | $11.17 | -56.42% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $12.52 | 3.45% | $5.13 | -59.02% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $12.52 | 8.51% | $2.63 | -79.01% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $8.47 | 14.99% | $1.74 | -79.51% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $6.10 | 16.75% | $6.06 | -0.64% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $6.65 | 16.24% | $-8.55 | -228.55% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $6.14 | 11.89% | $-6.49 | -205.70% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $7.73 | 5.81% | $-0.16 | -102.07% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $8.92 | 1.19% | $-3.05 | -134.14% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $7.44 | -0.08% | $7.02 | -5.66% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $7.06 | 1.03% | $6.52 | -7.64% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $5.88 | 2.68% | $2.32 | -60.55% |
| $79.39 - $86.74 | 19 |
| $86.74 - $94.08 | 64 |
| $94.08 - $101.43 | 125 |
| $101.43 - $108.78 | 168 |
| $108.78 - $116.12 | 175 |
| $116.12 - $123.47 | 153 |
| $123.47 - $130.82 | 104 |
| $130.82 - $138.17 | 83 |
| $138.17 - $145.51 | 44 |
| $145.51 - $152.86 | 24 |
| $152.86 - $160.21 | 13 |
| $160.21 - $167.55 | 7 |
| $167.55 - $174.90 | 9 |
| $174.90 - $182.25 | 6 |
| $182.25 - $189.59 | 3 |
| $189.59 - $196.94 | 0 |
| $196.94 - $204.29 | 0 |
| $204.29 - $211.63 | 0 |
| $211.63 - $218.98 | 1 |
| $218.98 - $226.33 | 2 |