Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $147.43 |
| 5Y Range | 117.56 – 182.92 |
| 5Y Selected | 150.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.86% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $76.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.89% |
| 10Y Range | 130.53 – 197.49 |
| 10Y Selected | 164.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.86% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $83.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -43.11% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5220 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8734 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6509 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6498 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7683 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9176 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1392 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6539 |
| Safety Score | 0.5114 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.74% | 6.43% | 6.13% | 5.83% | 5.52% | 5.22% | 4.91% | 4.61% | 4.30% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,099.93 | 3,299.38 | 3,501.62 | 3,705.60 | 3,910.19 | 4,114.18 | 4,316.30 | 4,515.22 | 4,709.56 | 4,897.94 |
| EBITDA | 1,083.05 | 1,152.73 | 1,223.39 | 1,294.66 | 1,366.14 | 1,437.41 | 1,508.02 | 1,577.52 | 1,645.42 | 1,711.23 |
| D&A | -179.00 | -190.52 | -202.20 | -213.98 | -225.79 | -237.57 | -249.24 | -260.73 | -271.95 | -282.83 |
| EBIT | 904.05 | 962.21 | 1,021.19 | 1,080.68 | 1,140.34 | 1,199.83 | 1,258.78 | 1,316.79 | 1,373.47 | 1,428.40 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -245.59 | -261.40 | -277.42 | -293.58 | -309.79 | -325.95 | -341.96 | -357.72 | -373.12 | -388.04 |
| NOPAT | 658.45 | 700.81 | 743.77 | 787.10 | 830.56 | 873.89 | 916.82 | 959.07 | 1,000.35 | 1,040.36 |
| Capital Expenditures | -157.05 | -167.16 | -177.40 | -187.74 | -198.10 | -208.44 | -218.68 | -228.75 | -238.60 | -248.14 |
| NWC Investment | -27.60 | -28.13 | -28.52 | -28.77 | -28.85 | -28.77 | -28.51 | -28.05 | -27.41 | -26.57 |
| (+) D&A | 179.00 | 190.52 | 202.20 | 213.98 | 225.79 | 237.57 | 249.24 | 260.73 | 271.95 | 282.83 |
| Free Cash Flow | 652.80 | 696.05 | 740.05 | 784.57 | 829.39 | 874.25 | 918.88 | 962.99 | 1,006.29 | 1,048.48 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 | 78,182,000.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 647.14 | 654.89 | 637.66 | 619.65 | 600.43 | 580.12 | 558.89 | 536.87 | 514.23 | 491.11 | Raw: 12,754.30 8,839.91 |
Raw: 16,123.39 7,230.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,999.69 | 13,071.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 828.17 | 828.17 |
| Equity Value | 11,171.52 | 12,243.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 78.18 | 78.18 |
| Fair Value | $142.89 | $156.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.86% | 48.86% |
| Buy Price | $73.07 | $80.08 |
| Current Price | $147.43 | $147.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -50.43% | -45.68% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 646.55 | 650.72 | 627.79 | 604.52 | 580.44 | 555.72 | 530.51 | 504.99 | 479.30 | 453.59 | Raw: 10,359.32 6,909.39 |
Raw: 13,095.77 5,399.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,019.42 | 11,033.50 |
| (-) Net Debt | 828.17 | 828.17 |
| Equity Value | 9,191.25 | 10,205.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 78.18 | 78.18 |
| Fair Value | $117.56 | $130.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.86% | 48.86% |
| Buy Price | $60.12 | $66.75 |
| Current Price | $147.43 | $147.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.22% | -54.72% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 647.74 | 659.13 | 647.78 | 635.31 | 621.29 | 605.84 | 589.06 | 571.09 | 552.06 | 532.12 | Raw: 16,541.35 11,917.87 |
Raw: 20,910.82 10,207.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,129.13 | 16,268.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 828.17 | 828.17 |
| Equity Value | 14,300.96 | 15,440.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 78.18 | 78.18 |
| Fair Value | $182.92 | $197.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.86% | 48.86% |
| Buy Price | $93.54 | $101.00 |
| Current Price | $147.43 | $147.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -36.55% | -31.49% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,097.45 | 16,866.85 | 40,083.48 | 95,256.98 | 226,374.87 | 537,971.92 | 1,278,471.35 | 3,038,242.23 | 7,220,275.84 | 17,158,731.70 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.71 | 1.69 | 4.01 | 9.53 | 22.64 | 53.80 | 127.85 | 303.82 | 722.03 | 1,715.87 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.68 | 1.45 | 3.17 | 6.90 | 15.02 | 32.72 | 71.28 | 155.26 | 338.20 | 736.69 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $29.44 | 5.07% | $54.55 | 85.28% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $26.26 | 9.52% | $37.56 | 43.02% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $25.90 | 12.52% | $37.40 | 44.41% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $21.90 | 11.25% | $15.76 | -28.02% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $21.30 | 5.15% | $23.62 | 10.91% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $29.94 | 2.46% | $1.69 | -94.35% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $16.15 | 1.14% | $-3.91 | -124.20% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $16.15 | 3.03% | $4.97 | -69.25% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $16.15 | 4.96% | $2.62 | -83.76% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $16.15 | 6.09% | $2.67 | -83.45% |
| $101.04 - $111.03 | 9 |
| $111.03 - $121.02 | 22 |
| $121.02 - $131.01 | 75 |
| $131.01 - $140.99 | 142 |
| $140.99 - $150.98 | 156 |
| $150.98 - $160.97 | 148 |
| $160.97 - $170.96 | 136 |
| $170.96 - $180.95 | 108 |
| $180.95 - $190.94 | 64 |
| $190.94 - $200.93 | 53 |
| $200.93 - $210.91 | 29 |
| $210.91 - $220.90 | 23 |
| $220.90 - $230.89 | 11 |
| $230.89 - $240.88 | 11 |
| $240.88 - $250.87 | 6 |
| $250.87 - $260.86 | 2 |
| $260.86 - $270.85 | 1 |
| $270.85 - $280.83 | 1 |
| $280.83 - $290.82 | 0 |
| $290.82 - $300.81 | 3 |