Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $246.56 |
| 5Y Range | 81.27 – 143.09 |
| 5Y Selected | 112.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 44.88% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $61.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.92% |
| 10Y Range | 107.86 – 180.78 |
| 10Y Selected | 144.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 44.88% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $79.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.74% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9337 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8976 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9427 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7831 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9462 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8364 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5747 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6847 |
| Safety Score | 0.5512 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 22.58% | 20.51% | 18.45% | 16.38% | 14.32% | 12.26% | 10.19% | 8.13% | 6.06% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 767.09 | 924.44 | 1,094.98 | 1,274.39 | 1,456.88 | 1,635.44 | 1,802.12 | 1,948.60 | 2,066.77 | 2,149.44 |
| EBITDA | 257.96 | 310.87 | 368.22 | 428.55 | 489.92 | 549.96 | 606.01 | 655.27 | 695.01 | 722.81 |
| D&A | -22.63 | -27.27 | -32.31 | -37.60 | -42.98 | -48.25 | -53.17 | -57.49 | -60.98 | -63.41 |
| EBIT | 235.32 | 283.59 | 335.91 | 390.95 | 446.93 | 501.71 | 552.85 | 597.78 | 634.03 | 659.39 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -58.43 | -70.41 | -83.40 | -97.07 | -110.97 | -124.57 | -137.26 | -148.42 | -157.42 | -163.72 |
| NOPAT | 176.90 | 213.18 | 252.51 | 293.88 | 335.97 | 377.15 | 415.58 | 449.36 | 476.61 | 495.68 |
| Capital Expenditures | -53.35 | -64.29 | -76.15 | -88.63 | -101.32 | -113.74 | -125.33 | -135.52 | -143.73 | -149.48 |
| NWC Investment | 2.89 | 3.21 | 3.48 | 3.67 | 3.73 | 3.65 | 3.41 | 2.99 | 2.41 | 1.69 |
| (+) D&A | 22.63 | 27.27 | 32.31 | 37.60 | 42.98 | 48.25 | 53.17 | 57.49 | 60.98 | 63.41 |
| Free Cash Flow | 149.07 | 179.38 | 212.15 | 246.52 | 281.36 | 315.31 | 346.83 | 374.33 | 396.27 | 411.30 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 | 28,426,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 12/29/25 | 12/29/26 | 12/29/27 | 12/29/28 | 12/29/29 | 12/29/30 | 12/29/31 | 12/29/32 | 12/29/33 |
| Period End | 12/28/25 | 12/28/26 | 12/28/27 | 12/28/28 | 12/28/29 | 12/28/30 | 12/28/31 | 12/28/32 | 12/28/33 | 12/28/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/12/25 | 6/29/26 | 6/29/27 | 6/28/28 | 6/29/29 | 6/29/30 | 6/29/31 | 6/28/32 | 6/29/33 | 6/29/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 3.45 | 4.45 | 5.45 | 6.45 | 7.45 | 8.45 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 147.78 | 172.49 | 186.99 | 199.16 | 208.35 | 214.02 | 215.78 | 213.47 | 207.14 | 197.06 | Raw: 4,335.12 3,073.44 |
Raw: 6,337.17 2,906.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,988.20 | 4,869.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 997.64 | 997.64 |
| Equity Value | 2,990.56 | 3,871.52 |
| (/) Shares Out | 28.43 | 28.43 |
| Fair Value | $105.20 | $136.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 44.88% | 44.88% |
| Buy Price | $57.99 | $75.07 |
| Current Price | $246.56 | $246.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.48% | -69.55% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 147.64 | 171.78 | 184.53 | 194.76 | 201.89 | 205.50 | 205.31 | 201.27 | 193.52 | 182.44 | Raw: 3,519.91 2,407.15 |
Raw: 5,145.47 2,175.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,307.75 | 4,063.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 997.64 | 997.64 |
| Equity Value | 2,310.11 | 3,066.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 28.43 | 28.43 |
| Fair Value | $81.27 | $107.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 44.88% | 44.88% |
| Buy Price | $44.79 | $59.45 |
| Current Price | $246.56 | $246.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.83% | -75.89% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 147.91 | 173.20 | 189.50 | 203.70 | 215.08 | 222.97 | 226.89 | 226.53 | 221.85 | 213.01 | Raw: 5,625.30 4,135.86 |
Raw: 8,223.18 4,096.11 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,065.26 | 6,136.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | 997.64 | 997.64 |
| Equity Value | 4,067.61 | 5,139.11 |
| (/) Shares Out | 28.43 | 28.43 |
| Fair Value | $143.09 | $180.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 44.88% | 44.88% |
| Buy Price | $78.87 | $99.65 |
| Current Price | $246.56 | $246.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.01% | -59.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,815.67 | 4,826.85 | 12,831.93 | 34,113.02 | 90,687.67 | 241,088.38 | 640,920.75 | 1,703,854.03 | 4,529,606.08 | 12,041,718.89 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% | 165.84% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.18 | 0.48 | 1.28 | 3.41 | 9.07 | 24.11 | 64.09 | 170.39 | 452.96 | 1,204.17 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.17 | 0.39 | 0.95 | 2.32 | 5.64 | 13.75 | 33.50 | 81.64 | 198.93 | 484.31 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $86.23 | 23.55% | $11.43 | -86.74% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $64.19 | 19.98% | $30.78 | -52.04% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $38.98 | 19.85% | $24.52 | -37.11% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $29.59 | 19.24% | $18.39 | -37.86% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $22.81 | 20.82% | $11.35 | -50.25% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $30.59 | 21.19% | $13.38 | -56.27% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $30.59 | 20.68% | $7.42 | -75.76% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $30.59 | 20.09% | $10.89 | -64.41% |
| $85.00 - $98.74 | 47 |
| $98.74 - $112.49 | 107 |
| $112.49 - $126.23 | 180 |
| $126.23 - $139.98 | 202 |
| $139.98 - $153.72 | 168 |
| $153.72 - $167.46 | 117 |
| $167.46 - $181.21 | 70 |
| $181.21 - $194.95 | 45 |
| $194.95 - $208.70 | 22 |
| $208.70 - $222.44 | 19 |
| $222.44 - $236.19 | 7 |
| $236.19 - $249.93 | 6 |
| $249.93 - $263.68 | 4 |
| $263.68 - $277.42 | 3 |
| $277.42 - $291.16 | 0 |
| $291.16 - $304.91 | 1 |
| $304.91 - $318.65 | 0 |
| $318.65 - $332.40 | 0 |
| $332.40 - $346.14 | 1 |
| $346.14 - $359.89 | 1 |