Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.78 |
| 5Y Range | 1.85 – 3.09 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.20% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.46% |
| 10Y Range | 1.83 – 2.93 |
| 10Y Selected | 2.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.20% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.33% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1087 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0686 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0847 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0416 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1038 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1038 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0500 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5682 |
| Safety Score | 0.1691 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -8.90% | -7.47% | -6.03% | -4.60% | -3.17% | -1.73% | -0.30% | 1.13% | 2.57% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 295.10 | 273.07 | 256.59 | 244.79 | 237.04 | 232.93 | 232.23 | 234.86 | 240.89 | 250.53 |
| EBITDA | 196.59 | 181.91 | 170.94 | 163.07 | 157.91 | 155.17 | 154.71 | 156.46 | 160.48 | 166.90 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 196.59 | 181.91 | 170.94 | 163.07 | 157.91 | 155.17 | 154.71 | 156.46 | 160.48 | 166.90 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -43.08 | -39.86 | -37.46 | -35.73 | -34.60 | -34.00 | -33.90 | -34.28 | -35.16 | -36.57 |
| NOPAT | 153.51 | 142.05 | 133.48 | 127.34 | 123.31 | 121.17 | 120.81 | 122.18 | 125.31 | 130.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.01 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.20 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 154.13 | 142.52 | 133.83 | 127.59 | 123.47 | 121.26 | 120.82 | 122.12 | 125.18 | 130.12 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 | 1,112,791,962.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.95 | 5.95 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 153.07 | 133.50 | 117.02 | 104.14 | 94.07 | 86.24 | 80.21 | 75.63 | 72.37 | 70.21 | Raw: 2,473.44 1,820.69 |
Raw: 2,606.60 1,358.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,422.48 | 2,345.38 |
| (-) Net Debt | -123.97 | -123.97 |
| Equity Value | 2,546.45 | 2,469.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,112.79 | 1,112.79 |
| Fair Value | $2.29 | $2.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.20% | 85.20% |
| Buy Price | $0.34 | $0.33 |
| Current Price | $1.78 | $1.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.92% | -81.50% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 152.93 | 132.32 | 114.92 | 101.32 | 90.68 | 82.36 | 75.90 | 70.89 | 67.21 | 64.61 | Raw: 1,901.38 1,342.91 |
Raw: 2,003.74 956.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,935.08 | 1,909.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | -123.97 | -123.97 |
| Equity Value | 2,059.05 | 2,033.83 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,112.79 | 1,112.79 |
| Fair Value | $1.85 | $1.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.20% | 85.20% |
| Buy Price | $0.27 | $0.27 |
| Current Price | $1.78 | $1.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.57% | -84.76% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 153.21 | 134.69 | 119.18 | 107.06 | 97.62 | 90.34 | 84.81 | 80.73 | 77.97 | 76.37 | Raw: 3,523.08 2,703.85 |
Raw: 3,712.75 2,115.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,315.61 | 3,137.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | -123.97 | -123.97 |
| Equity Value | 3,439.58 | 3,261.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,112.79 | 1,112.79 |
| Fair Value | $3.09 | $2.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.20% | 85.20% |
| Buy Price | $0.46 | $0.43 |
| Current Price | $1.78 | $1.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.23% | -75.56% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,429.23 | 3,110.75 | 6,770.58 | 14,736.26 | 32,073.67 | 69,808.79 | 151,939.78 | 330,699.01 | 719,770.92 | 1,566,591.24 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% | 117.65% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.68 | 1.47 | 3.21 | 6.98 | 15.19 | 33.07 | 71.98 | 156.66 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.55 | 1.12 | 2.28 | 4.63 | 9.41 | 19.12 | 38.84 | 78.91 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $1.63 | -4.92% | $2.51 | 53.89% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $1.54 | -12.84% | $1.23 | -20.20% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $1.56 | 14.74% | $2.47 | 58.14% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $1.17 | -3.43% | $1.27 | 8.87% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $1.01 | -4.71% | $1.18 | 17.12% |
| $1.46 - $1.69 | 31 |
| $1.69 - $1.93 | 165 |
| $1.93 - $2.16 | 247 |
| $2.16 - $2.39 | 193 |
| $2.39 - $2.63 | 146 |
| $2.63 - $2.86 | 99 |
| $2.86 - $3.09 | 49 |
| $3.09 - $3.32 | 23 |
| $3.32 - $3.56 | 15 |
| $3.56 - $3.79 | 11 |
| $3.79 - $4.02 | 9 |
| $4.02 - $4.26 | 3 |
| $4.26 - $4.49 | 3 |
| $4.49 - $4.72 | 2 |
| $4.72 - $4.95 | 1 |
| $4.95 - $5.19 | 0 |
| $5.19 - $5.42 | 0 |
| $5.42 - $5.65 | 1 |
| $5.65 - $5.88 | 0 |
| $5.88 - $6.12 | 1 |