| Current Price | $213.73 |
| 5Y Range | 114.64 – 183.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 148.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.18% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $87.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.01% |
| 10Y Range | 127.49 – 197.12 |
| 10Y Selected | 162.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.18% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $95.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.33% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9456 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9048 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9642 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7375 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9748 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9076 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7780 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7454 |
| Safety Score | 0.5882 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.02% | 5.80% | 5.57% | 5.35% | 5.12% | 4.90% | 4.67% | 4.45% | 4.22% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 11,012.69 | 11,651.32 | 12,300.77 | 12,958.76 | 13,622.82 | 14,290.26 | 14,958.28 | 15,623.88 | 16,283.97 | 16,935.33 |
| EBITDA | 2,233.17 | 2,362.67 | 2,494.37 | 2,627.80 | 2,762.46 | 2,897.80 | 3,033.26 | 3,168.24 | 3,302.09 | 3,434.17 |
| D&A | -472.78 | -500.20 | -528.08 | -556.33 | -584.83 | -613.49 | -642.16 | -670.74 | -699.08 | -727.04 |
| EBIT | 1,760.39 | 1,862.48 | 1,966.29 | 2,071.47 | 2,177.62 | 2,284.32 | 2,391.10 | 2,497.50 | 2,603.01 | 2,707.13 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -442.20 | -467.85 | -493.92 | -520.34 | -547.01 | -573.81 | -600.63 | -627.36 | -653.86 | -680.02 |
| NOPAT | 1,318.19 | 1,394.63 | 1,472.37 | 1,551.13 | 1,630.61 | 1,710.51 | 1,790.47 | 1,870.14 | 1,949.15 | 2,027.11 |
| Capital Expenditures | -211.37 | -223.62 | -236.09 | -248.72 | -261.46 | -274.27 | -287.09 | -299.87 | -312.54 | -325.04 |
| NWC Investment | -70.94 | -72.40 | -73.63 | -74.60 | -75.29 | -75.67 | -75.73 | -75.46 | -74.84 | -73.85 |
| (+) D&A | 472.78 | 500.20 | 528.08 | 556.33 | 584.83 | 613.49 | 642.16 | 670.74 | 699.08 | 727.04 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,508.67 | 1,598.80 | 1,690.73 | 1,784.14 | 1,878.70 | 1,974.05 | 2,069.80 | 2,165.55 | 2,260.85 | 2,355.27 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 | 171,425,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,495.59 | 1,536.03 | 1,488.88 | 1,440.12 | 1,389.99 | 1,338.74 | 1,286.62 | 1,233.87 | 1,180.75 | 1,127.48 | Raw: 28,963.11 20,515.91 |
Raw: 36,310.16 16,641.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 27,866.51 | 30,159.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,661.75 | 3,661.75 |
| Equity Value | 24,204.76 | 26,497.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 171.43 | 171.43 |
| Fair Value | $141.20 | $154.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.18% | 41.18% |
| Buy Price | $83.05 | $90.92 |
| Current Price | $213.73 | $213.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.14% | -57.46% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,494.22 | 1,529.59 | 1,469.18 | 1,408.16 | 1,346.79 | 1,285.35 | 1,224.09 | 1,163.25 | 1,103.06 | 1,043.73 | Raw: 23,514.28 16,065.16 |
Raw: 29,479.13 12,450.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,313.11 | 25,517.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,661.75 | 3,661.75 |
| Equity Value | 19,651.36 | 21,855.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 171.43 | 171.43 |
| Fair Value | $114.64 | $127.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.18% | 41.18% |
| Buy Price | $67.43 | $74.99 |
| Current Price | $213.73 | $213.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.45% | -64.91% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,496.96 | 1,542.55 | 1,509.04 | 1,473.12 | 1,434.99 | 1,394.86 | 1,352.96 | 1,309.50 | 1,264.71 | 1,218.83 | Raw: 37,588.74 27,614.67 |
Raw: 47,123.84 23,454.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 35,071.32 | 37,452.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,661.75 | 3,661.75 |
| Equity Value | 31,409.57 | 33,790.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 171.43 | 171.43 |
| Fair Value | $183.23 | $197.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.18% | 41.18% |
| Buy Price | $107.77 | $115.94 |
| Current Price | $213.73 | $213.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.57% | -45.75% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 25,547.23 | 60,515.63 | 143,347.88 | 339,558.78 | 804,338.15 | 1,905,295.62 | 4,513,215.53 | 10,690,789.46 | 25,324,068.55 | 59,987,005.64 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.55 | 6.05 | 14.33 | 33.96 | 80.43 | 190.53 | 451.32 | 1,069.08 | 2,532.41 | 5,998.70 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.38 | 4.88 | 10.61 | 23.03 | 50.00 | 108.56 | 235.71 | 511.78 | 1,111.19 | 2,412.65 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $77.80 | 10.72% | $93.46 | 20.13% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $70.25 | 3.79% | $6.84 | -90.27% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $81.43 | -1.24% | $-2.33 | -102.86% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $83.02 | -0.83% | $47.50 | -42.78% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $71.12 | 5.77% | $75.43 | 6.07% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $86.89 | 10.06% | $101.71 | 17.06% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $74.27 | 8.81% | $43.06 | -42.02% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $43.77 | 8.47% | $44.68 | 2.08% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $34.98 | 7.65% | $44.98 | 28.59% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $26.45 | 12.68% | $40.14 | 51.77% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $20.42 | 16.62% | $43.10 | 111.06% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $19.88 | 16.59% | $41.15 | 107.01% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $17.22 | 11.89% | $32.28 | 87.48% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $15.19 | 7.37% | $28.26 | 86.05% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $13.45 | 7.34% | $13.46 | 0.07% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $10.66 | 9.53% | $7.85 | -26.34% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $8.52 | 14.00% | $10.60 | 24.39% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $7.02 | 12.69% | $-0.48 | -106.89% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $6.15 | 9.64% | $25.45 | 313.88% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $5.88 | 5.08% | $1.18 | -79.94% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $8.88 | -1.51% | $1.08 | -87.79% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $12.22 | -4.89% | $-35.05 | -386.85% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $12.81 | -19.47% | $-4.21 | -132.89% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $6.31 | -20.05% | $-9.35 | -248.18% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $5.31 | -2.21% | $-12.23 | -330.39% |
| $95.89 - $105.89 | 3 |
| $105.89 - $115.90 | 26 |
| $115.90 - $125.90 | 74 |
| $125.90 - $135.91 | 119 |
| $135.91 - $145.92 | 157 |
| $145.92 - $155.92 | 149 |
| $155.92 - $165.93 | 132 |
| $165.93 - $175.94 | 95 |
| $175.94 - $185.94 | 91 |
| $185.94 - $195.95 | 58 |
| $195.95 - $205.96 | 36 |
| $205.96 - $215.96 | 19 |
| $215.96 - $225.97 | 15 |
| $225.97 - $235.98 | 15 |
| $235.98 - $245.98 | 5 |
| $245.98 - $255.99 | 3 |
| $255.99 - $266.00 | 1 |
| $266.00 - $276.00 | 0 |
| $276.00 - $286.01 | 1 |
| $286.01 - $296.01 | 1 |