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Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$213.73
5Y Range114.64 – 183.23
5Y Selected148.93
(-) Safety Margin41.18%
5Y Buy Price$87.60
Upside (to Buy Price)-59.01%
10Y Range127.49 – 197.12
10Y Selected162.31
(-) Safety Margin41.18%
10Y Buy Price$95.47
Upside (to Buy Price)-55.33%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9456
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9048
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9642
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7375
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9748
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9076
FCF R2 (5Y)0.7780
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7454
Safety Score0.5882

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.02%5.80%5.57%5.35%5.12%4.90%4.67%4.45%4.22%4.00%
Revenue11,012.6911,651.3212,300.7712,958.7613,622.8214,290.2614,958.2815,623.8816,283.9716,935.33
EBITDA2,233.172,362.672,494.372,627.802,762.462,897.803,033.263,168.243,302.093,434.17
D&A-472.78-500.20-528.08-556.33-584.83-613.49-642.16-670.74-699.08-727.04
EBIT1,760.391,862.481,966.292,071.472,177.622,284.322,391.102,497.502,603.012,707.13
Pro forma Taxes-442.20-467.85-493.92-520.34-547.01-573.81-600.63-627.36-653.86-680.02
NOPAT1,318.191,394.631,472.371,551.131,630.611,710.511,790.471,870.141,949.152,027.11
Capital Expenditures-211.37-223.62-236.09-248.72-261.46-274.27-287.09-299.87-312.54-325.04
NWC Investment-70.94-72.40-73.63-74.60-75.29-75.67-75.73-75.46-74.84-73.85
(+) D&A472.78500.20528.08556.33584.83613.49642.16670.74699.08727.04
Free Cash Flow1,508.671,598.801,690.731,784.141,878.701,974.052,069.802,165.552,260.852,355.27
Diluted Shares Outstanding171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00171,425,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.45%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF1,495.591,536.031,488.881,440.121,389.991,338.741,286.621,233.871,180.751,127.48
Raw: 28,963.11
20,515.91
Raw: 36,310.16
16,641.40

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value27,866.5130,159.46
(-) Net Debt3,661.753,661.75
Equity Value24,204.7626,497.71
(/) Shares Out171.43171.43
Fair Value$141.20$154.57
(-) Safety Margin41.18%41.18%
Buy Price$83.05$90.92
Current Price$213.73$213.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-61.14%-57.46%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF1,494.221,529.591,469.181,408.161,346.791,285.351,224.091,163.251,103.061,043.73
Raw: 23,514.28
16,065.16
Raw: 29,479.13
12,450.04

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value23,313.1125,517.46
(-) Net Debt3,661.753,661.75
Equity Value19,651.3621,855.71
(/) Shares Out171.43171.43
Fair Value$114.64$127.49
(-) Safety Margin41.18%41.18%
Buy Price$67.43$74.99
Current Price$213.73$213.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-68.45%-64.91%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF1,496.961,542.551,509.041,473.121,434.991,394.861,352.961,309.501,264.711,218.83
Raw: 37,588.74
27,614.67
Raw: 47,123.84
23,454.95

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value35,071.3237,452.46
(-) Net Debt3,661.753,661.75
Equity Value31,409.5733,790.71
(/) Shares Out171.43171.43
Fair Value$183.23$197.12
(-) Safety Margin41.18%41.18%
Buy Price$107.77$115.94
Current Price$213.73$213.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-49.57%-45.75%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$213.73
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH136.88%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue25,547.2360,515.63143,347.88339,558.78804,338.151,905,295.624,513,215.5310,690,789.4625,324,068.5559,987,005.64
Constant Implied Growth136.88%136.88%136.88%136.88%136.88%136.88%136.88%136.88%136.88%136.88%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.556.0514.3333.9680.43190.53451.321,069.082,532.415,998.70
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF2.384.8810.6123.0350.00108.56235.71511.781,111.192,412.65

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$77.8010.72%$93.4620.13%
20182018-12-31$70.253.79%$6.84-90.27%
20172017-12-31$81.43-1.24%$-2.33-102.86%
20162016-12-31$83.02-0.83%$47.50-42.78%
20152015-12-31$71.125.77%$75.436.07%
20142014-12-31$86.8910.06%$101.7117.06%
20132013-12-31$74.278.81%$43.06-42.02%
20122012-12-31$43.778.47%$44.682.08%
20112011-12-31$34.987.65%$44.9828.59%
20102010-12-31$26.4512.68%$40.1451.77%
20092009-12-31$20.4216.62%$43.10111.06%
20082008-12-31$19.8816.59%$41.15107.01%
20072007-12-31$17.2211.89%$32.2887.48%
20062006-12-31$15.197.37%$28.2686.05%
20052005-12-31$13.457.34%$13.460.07%
20042004-12-31$10.669.53%$7.85-26.34%
20032003-12-31$8.5214.00%$10.6024.39%
20022002-12-31$7.0212.69%$-0.48-106.89%
20012001-12-31$6.159.64%$25.45313.88%
20002000-12-31$5.885.08%$1.18-79.94%
19991999-12-31$8.88-1.51%$1.08-87.79%
19981998-12-31$12.22-4.89%$-35.05-386.85%
19971997-12-31$12.81-19.47%$-4.21-132.89%
19961996-12-31$6.31-20.05%$-9.35-248.18%
19951995-12-31$5.31-2.21%$-12.23-330.39%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$158.00
Median
$153.21
10th Percentile
$125.61
90th Percentile
$194.94

Fair Value Distribution

$95.89 - $105.89
3
$105.89 - $115.90
26
$115.90 - $125.90
74
$125.90 - $135.91
119
$135.91 - $145.92
157
$145.92 - $155.92
149
$155.92 - $165.93
132
$165.93 - $175.94
95
$175.94 - $185.94
91
$185.94 - $195.95
58
$195.95 - $205.96
36
$205.96 - $215.96
19
$215.96 - $225.97
15
$225.97 - $235.98
15
$235.98 - $245.98
5
$245.98 - $255.99
3
$255.99 - $266.00
1
$266.00 - $276.00
0
$276.00 - $286.01
1
$286.01 - $296.01
1