Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $25.55 |
| 5Y Range | 58.80 – 98.03 |
| 5Y Selected | 78.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.67% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.02% |
| 10Y Range | 63.25 – 100.92 |
| 10Y Selected | 82.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.67% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $11.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.96% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4442 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5135 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1788 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0200 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0135 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0409 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0796 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0001 |
| Safety Score | 0.1433 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.68% | 1.05% | 1.42% | 1.79% | 2.16% | 2.52% | 2.89% | 3.26% | 3.63% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 135,704.20 | 137,127.26 | 139,071.14 | 141,555.63 | 144,606.73 | 148,257.07 | 152,546.51 | 157,522.83 | 163,242.61 | 169,772.32 |
| EBITDA | 80,632.32 | 81,477.88 | 82,632.88 | 84,109.11 | 85,922.00 | 88,090.95 | 90,639.64 | 93,596.45 | 96,995.02 | 100,874.82 |
| D&A | -17,406.29 | -17,588.82 | -17,838.16 | -18,156.83 | -18,548.19 | -19,016.40 | -19,566.59 | -20,204.89 | -20,938.54 | -21,776.09 |
| EBIT | 63,226.03 | 63,889.05 | 64,794.73 | 65,952.28 | 67,373.82 | 69,074.55 | 71,073.05 | 73,391.57 | 76,056.47 | 79,098.73 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -11,542.40 | -11,663.44 | -11,828.78 | -12,040.10 | -12,299.61 | -12,610.09 | -12,974.94 | -13,398.20 | -13,884.70 | -14,440.09 |
| NOPAT | 51,683.63 | 52,225.61 | 52,965.95 | 53,912.18 | 55,074.21 | 56,464.46 | 58,098.11 | 59,993.37 | 62,171.78 | 64,658.65 |
| Capital Expenditures | -26,602.06 | -26,881.02 | -27,262.08 | -27,749.11 | -28,347.22 | -29,062.79 | -29,903.65 | -30,879.16 | -32,000.41 | -33,280.42 |
| NWC Investment | 19.02 | 29.55 | 40.36 | 51.59 | 63.35 | 75.79 | 89.06 | 103.33 | 118.76 | 135.58 |
| (+) D&A | 17,406.29 | 17,588.82 | 17,838.16 | 18,156.83 | 18,548.19 | 19,016.40 | 19,566.59 | 20,204.89 | 20,938.54 | 21,776.09 |
| Free Cash Flow | 42,506.89 | 42,962.96 | 43,582.39 | 44,371.48 | 45,338.52 | 46,493.86 | 47,850.12 | 49,422.42 | 51,228.68 | 53,289.89 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 | 6,834,235,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 42,138.36 | 41,312.04 | 38,412.86 | 35,815.80 | 33,544.50 | 31,530.64 | 29,744.27 | 28,159.67 | 26,754.69 | 25,510.25 | Raw: 677,678.81 480,031.15 |
Raw: 796,528.55 365,058.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 671,254.71 | 697,981.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 164,705.50 | 164,705.50 |
| Equity Value | 506,549.21 | 533,276.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6,834.24 | 6,834.24 |
| Fair Value | $74.12 | $78.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.67% | 85.67% |
| Buy Price | $10.62 | $11.18 |
| Current Price | $25.55 | $25.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.43% | -56.24% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 42,099.93 | 41,142.76 | 37,908.00 | 35,020.84 | 32,502.03 | 30,273.27 | 28,298.75 | 26,547.82 | 24,994.16 | 23,615.16 | Raw: 553,094.66 377,879.15 |
Raw: 650,095.13 274,557.44 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 566,552.71 | 596,960.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 164,705.50 | 164,705.50 |
| Equity Value | 401,847.21 | 432,254.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6,834.24 | 6,834.24 |
| Fair Value | $58.80 | $63.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.67% | 85.67% |
| Buy Price | $8.43 | $9.06 |
| Current Price | $25.55 | $25.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.02% | -64.53% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 42,177.18 | 41,483.58 | 38,929.19 | 36,636.38 | 34,630.46 | 32,852.53 | 31,277.97 | 29,885.60 | 28,657.18 | 27,577.03 | Raw: 872,237.66 640,791.74 |
Raw: 1,025,208.69 510,277.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 834,648.53 | 854,384.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 164,705.50 | 164,705.50 |
| Equity Value | 669,943.03 | 689,678.67 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6,834.24 | 6,834.24 |
| Fair Value | $98.03 | $100.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.67% | 85.67% |
| Buy Price | $14.05 | $14.46 |
| Current Price | $25.55 | $25.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.02% | -43.40% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 312,291.87 | 709,327.99 | 1,611,140.86 | 3,659,484.62 | 8,312,015.43 | 18,879,598.52 | 42,882,408.41 | 97,401,485.99 | 221,234,063.70 | 502,502,712.80 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 31.23 | 70.93 | 161.11 | 365.95 | 831.20 | 1,887.96 | 4,288.24 | 9,740.15 | 22,123.41 | 50,250.27 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 29.05 | 57.26 | 119.20 | 248.17 | 516.69 | 1,075.71 | 2,239.58 | 4,662.68 | 9,707.45 | 20,210.39 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $25.55 | 1.01% | $14.36 | -43.81% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $25.30 | 0.96% | $15.34 | -39.37% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $26.23 | 1.02% | $0.28 | -98.92% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $26.09 | 0.97% | $-2.62 | -110.05% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $27.62 | 0.82% | $7.33 | -73.47% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $26.18 | 0.42% | $10.37 | -60.39% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $24.86 | 0.15% | $30.47 | 22.55% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $24.86 | 0.80% | $13.61 | -45.27% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $24.86 | 2.56% | $19.71 | -20.71% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $24.86 | 4.36% | $27.71 | 11.45% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $24.86 | 4.36% | $21.61 | -13.07% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $24.86 | 3.07% | $12.64 | -49.15% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $24.86 | 3.76% | $12.23 | -50.80% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.86 | 4.32% | $9.97 | -59.88% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $24.86 | 5.22% | $9.33 | -62.45% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $24.86 | 8.22% | $15.54 | -37.50% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $24.86 | 8.42% | $19.55 | -21.35% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $24.86 | 8.56% | $17.74 | -28.65% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $24.86 | 6.33% | $-1.67 | -106.72% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $24.86 | 2.76% | $-9.24 | -137.17% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $24.86 | 2.02% | $0.15 | -99.38% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $24.86 | 14.72% | $5.44 | -78.11% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $24.86 | 22.30% | $6.82 | -72.57% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $24.86 | 23.18% | $6.84 | -72.48% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $24.86 | 32.91% | $7.14 | -71.27% |
| $47.31 - $53.74 | 10 |
| $53.74 - $60.18 | 51 |
| $60.18 - $66.62 | 122 |
| $66.62 - $73.06 | 189 |
| $73.06 - $79.49 | 180 |
| $79.49 - $85.93 | 138 |
| $85.93 - $92.37 | 118 |
| $92.37 - $98.80 | 83 |
| $98.80 - $105.24 | 47 |
| $105.24 - $111.68 | 19 |
| $111.68 - $118.12 | 19 |
| $118.12 - $124.55 | 13 |
| $124.55 - $130.99 | 3 |
| $130.99 - $137.43 | 3 |
| $137.43 - $143.87 | 0 |
| $143.87 - $150.30 | 1 |
| $150.30 - $156.74 | 1 |
| $156.74 - $163.18 | 0 |
| $163.18 - $169.62 | 1 |
| $169.62 - $176.05 | 2 |