Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $173.45 |
| 5Y Range | 434.50 – 690.11 |
| 5Y Selected | 562.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.87% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $90.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.71% |
| 10Y Range | 532.47 – 826.20 |
| 10Y Selected | 679.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.87% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $109.58 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -36.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7912 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9258 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3938 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0497 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5202 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0106 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1783 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1918 |
| Safety Score | 0.1613 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 18.69% | 17.06% | 15.43% | 13.80% | 12.16% | 10.53% | 8.90% | 7.27% | 5.63% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 22,999.21 | 26,923.04 | 31,076.76 | 35,363.97 | 39,665.28 | 43,842.18 | 47,743.16 | 51,211.79 | 54,096.34 | 56,260.19 |
| EBITDA | 10,043.78 | 11,757.33 | 13,571.26 | 15,443.49 | 17,321.88 | 19,145.94 | 20,849.50 | 22,364.25 | 23,623.94 | 24,568.90 |
| D&A | -3,365.94 | -3,940.20 | -4,548.10 | -5,175.53 | -5,805.03 | -6,416.32 | -6,987.23 | -7,494.87 | -7,917.02 | -8,233.70 |
| EBIT | 6,677.84 | 7,817.13 | 9,023.17 | 10,267.96 | 11,516.85 | 12,729.62 | 13,862.27 | 14,869.39 | 15,706.92 | 16,335.20 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 6,677.84 | 7,817.13 | 9,023.17 | 10,267.96 | 11,516.85 | 12,729.62 | 13,862.27 | 14,869.39 | 15,706.92 | 16,335.20 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,963.87 | -2,298.92 | -2,653.60 | -3,019.68 | -3,386.96 | -3,743.62 | -4,076.72 | -4,372.90 | -4,619.20 | -4,803.97 |
| NWC Investment | -75.82 | -82.13 | -86.95 | -89.74 | -90.04 | -87.43 | -81.66 | -72.61 | -60.38 | -45.29 |
| (+) D&A | 3,365.94 | 3,940.20 | 4,548.10 | 5,175.53 | 5,805.03 | 6,416.32 | 6,987.23 | 7,494.87 | 7,917.02 | 8,233.70 |
| Free Cash Flow | 8,004.09 | 9,376.27 | 10,830.72 | 12,334.08 | 13,844.88 | 15,314.89 | 16,691.13 | 17,918.75 | 18,944.36 | 19,719.63 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 | 339,689,069.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 7,934.70 | 9,015.98 | 9,546.03 | 9,955.83 | 10,243.38 | 10,386.06 | 10,375.43 | 10,209.66 | 9,893.88 | 9,439.93 | Raw: 213,800.40 151,444.68 |
Raw: 304,521.49 139,565.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 198,140.60 | 236,566.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | 16,946.75 | 16,946.75 |
| Equity Value | 181,193.85 | 219,620.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 339.69 | 339.69 |
| Fair Value | $533.41 | $646.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.87% | 83.87% |
| Buy Price | $86.04 | $104.29 |
| Current Price | $173.45 | $173.45 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -50.40% | -39.88% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 7,927.46 | 8,979.03 | 9,420.57 | 9,734.85 | 9,925.05 | 9,971.89 | 9,871.20 | 9,625.26 | 9,242.84 | 8,738.66 | Raw: 173,527.63 118,555.60 |
Raw: 247,159.93 104,384.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 164,542.56 | 197,820.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 16,946.75 | 16,946.75 |
| Equity Value | 147,595.81 | 180,874.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 339.69 | 339.69 |
| Fair Value | $434.50 | $532.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.87% | 83.87% |
| Buy Price | $70.09 | $85.89 |
| Current Price | $173.45 | $173.45 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.59% | -50.48% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 7,942.01 | 9,053.41 | 9,674.35 | 10,183.92 | 10,575.00 | 10,821.49 | 10,910.41 | 10,835.42 | 10,597.42 | 10,204.73 | Raw: 277,601.11 203,940.40 |
Raw: 395,394.51 196,799.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 251,369.10 | 297,597.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 16,946.75 | 16,946.75 |
| Equity Value | 234,422.35 | 280,651.10 |
| (/) Shares Out | 339.69 | 339.69 |
| Fair Value | $690.11 | $826.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.87% | 83.87% |
| Buy Price | $111.31 | $133.27 |
| Current Price | $173.45 | $173.45 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -35.82% | -23.17% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 51,139.96 | 120,221.35 | 282,619.97 | 664,391.52 | 1,561,871.56 | 3,671,694.65 | 8,631,530.22 | 20,291,260.86 | 47,701,306.35 | 112,137,665.74 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% | 135.08% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.11 | 12.02 | 28.26 | 66.44 | 156.19 | 367.17 | 863.15 | 2,029.13 | 4,770.13 | 11,213.77 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.76 | 9.70 | 20.91 | 45.06 | 97.09 | 209.20 | 450.79 | 971.36 | 2,093.07 | 4,510.12 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $22.99 | 22.38% | $140.39 | 510.64% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $22.89 | 18.05% | $40.42 | 76.58% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $18.32 | 16.77% | $53.89 | 194.14% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $15.50 | 17.04% | $-45.42 | -393.05% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $15.50 | 18.36% | $-16.98 | -209.57% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $15.50 | 17.15% | $-72.72 | -569.16% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $15.50 | 7.07% | $-114.46 | -838.48% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $15.50 | -3.14% | $-30.30 | -295.50% |
| $409.55 - $454.81 | 7 |
| $454.81 - $500.07 | 47 |
| $500.07 - $545.32 | 86 |
| $545.32 - $590.58 | 156 |
| $590.58 - $635.84 | 171 |
| $635.84 - $681.09 | 140 |
| $681.09 - $726.35 | 126 |
| $726.35 - $771.61 | 90 |
| $771.61 - $816.86 | 65 |
| $816.86 - $862.12 | 43 |
| $862.12 - $907.38 | 22 |
| $907.38 - $952.63 | 17 |
| $952.63 - $997.89 | 12 |
| $997.89 - $1,043.15 | 9 |
| $1,043.15 - $1,088.41 | 5 |
| $1,088.41 - $1,133.66 | 1 |
| $1,133.66 - $1,178.92 | 1 |
| $1,178.92 - $1,224.18 | 0 |
| $1,224.18 - $1,269.43 | 1 |
| $1,269.43 - $1,314.69 | 1 |