Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $242.25 |
| 5Y Range | 156.83 – 244.65 |
| 5Y Selected | 200.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 28.61% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $143.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -40.84% |
| 10Y Range | 171.79 – 259.80 |
| 10Y Selected | 215.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 28.61% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $154.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -36.41% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9945 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9655 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0047 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8120 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9696 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9390 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9458 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8624 |
| Safety Score | 0.7139 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.23% | 7.76% | 7.29% | 6.82% | 6.35% | 5.88% | 5.41% | 4.94% | 4.47% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,685.56 | 1,816.34 | 1,948.74 | 2,081.62 | 2,213.79 | 2,343.96 | 2,470.75 | 2,592.80 | 2,708.70 | 2,817.05 |
| EBITDA | 1,174.30 | 1,265.42 | 1,357.66 | 1,450.24 | 1,542.32 | 1,633.00 | 1,721.34 | 1,806.37 | 1,887.11 | 1,962.60 |
| D&A | -63.65 | -68.59 | -73.59 | -78.61 | -83.60 | -88.51 | -93.30 | -97.91 | -102.29 | -106.38 |
| EBIT | 1,110.65 | 1,196.83 | 1,284.07 | 1,371.63 | 1,458.72 | 1,544.49 | 1,628.04 | 1,708.46 | 1,784.83 | 1,856.22 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -179.42 | -193.34 | -207.44 | -221.58 | -235.65 | -249.51 | -263.00 | -276.00 | -288.33 | -299.87 |
| NOPAT | 931.23 | 1,003.49 | 1,076.63 | 1,150.05 | 1,223.07 | 1,294.98 | 1,365.04 | 1,432.47 | 1,496.49 | 1,556.35 |
| Capital Expenditures | -69.98 | -75.41 | -80.90 | -86.42 | -91.91 | -97.31 | -102.58 | -107.64 | -112.45 | -116.95 |
| NWC Investment | 96.68 | 98.66 | 99.87 | 100.25 | 99.70 | 98.19 | 95.65 | 92.07 | 87.43 | 81.73 |
| (+) D&A | 63.65 | 68.59 | 73.59 | 78.61 | 83.60 | 88.51 | 93.30 | 97.91 | 102.29 | 106.38 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,021.58 | 1,095.33 | 1,169.19 | 1,242.48 | 1,314.47 | 1,384.37 | 1,451.41 | 1,514.80 | 1,573.75 | 1,627.51 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 | 94,525,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,012.72 | 1,052.32 | 1,029.61 | 1,002.91 | 972.53 | 938.84 | 902.22 | 863.10 | 821.91 | 779.10 | Raw: 20,363.56 14,424.45 |
Raw: 25,213.26 11,555.55 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,494.54 | 20,930.80 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,460.15 | 1,460.15 |
| Equity Value | 18,034.39 | 19,470.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 94.53 | 94.53 |
| Fair Value | $190.79 | $205.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 28.61% | 28.61% |
| Buy Price | $136.20 | $147.05 |
| Current Price | $242.25 | $242.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -43.78% | -39.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,011.80 | 1,047.91 | 1,015.99 | 980.65 | 942.31 | 901.40 | 858.37 | 813.69 | 767.82 | 721.22 | Raw: 16,518.63 11,285.67 |
Raw: 20,452.64 8,637.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,284.33 | 17,699.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,460.15 | 1,460.15 |
| Equity Value | 14,824.18 | 16,238.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 94.53 | 94.53 |
| Fair Value | $156.83 | $171.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 28.61% | 28.61% |
| Buy Price | $111.96 | $122.64 |
| Current Price | $242.25 | $242.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.78% | -49.37% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,013.66 | 1,056.79 | 1,043.55 | 1,025.89 | 1,004.01 | 978.20 | 948.74 | 916.00 | 880.35 | 842.22 | Raw: 26,463.47 19,441.46 |
Raw: 32,765.90 16,308.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,585.35 | 26,017.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,460.15 | 1,460.15 |
| Equity Value | 23,125.20 | 24,557.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 94.53 | 94.53 |
| Fair Value | $244.65 | $259.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 28.61% | 28.61% |
| Buy Price | $174.65 | $185.47 |
| Current Price | $242.25 | $242.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -27.90% | -23.44% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,432.92 | 12,080.13 | 32,919.53 | 89,708.94 | 244,465.63 | 666,192.73 | 1,815,440.24 | 4,947,251.95 | 13,481,744.69 | 36,739,070.87 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% | 172.51% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.44 | 1.21 | 3.29 | 8.97 | 24.45 | 66.62 | 181.54 | 494.73 | 1,348.17 | 3,673.91 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.41 | 0.98 | 2.44 | 6.08 | 15.20 | 37.96 | 94.81 | 236.83 | 591.56 | 1,477.63 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $192.68 | 9.32% | $124.44 | -35.42% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $148.29 | 8.41% | $104.89 | -29.27% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $114.44 | 7.06% | $113.66 | -0.68% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $76.07 | 1.45% | $59.43 | -21.87% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $87.36 | -0.52% | $64.30 | -26.39% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $57.00 | 1.52% | $62.09 | 8.93% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $59.78 | 6.59% | $64.02 | 7.09% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $38.82 | 14.00% | $80.40 | 107.11% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $35.72 | 16.32% | $29.63 | -17.06% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $32.67 | 17.34% | $29.09 | -10.95% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $24.24 | 18.22% | $51.40 | 112.07% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $19.08 | 8.07% | $36.85 | 93.14% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $37.61 | 1.23% | $21.74 | -42.19% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $24.05 | -8.39% | $13.54 | -43.70% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $21.90 | -11.97% | $13.70 | -37.43% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $33.60 | -5.82% | $13.40 | -60.11% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $16.30 | 0.99% | $20.00 | 22.68% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $8.02 | 8.38% | $7.02 | -12.41% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $38.04 | 6.93% | $-13.75 | -136.14% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $74.19 | 4.11% | $17.97 | -75.78% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $190.94 | 8.98% | $2.61 | -98.64% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $14.78 | 40.56% | $-13.82 | -193.53% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $6.38 | 65.57% | $-38.80 | -708.19% |
| $139.26 - $157.63 | 37 |
| $157.63 - $176.00 | 122 |
| $176.00 - $194.37 | 200 |
| $194.37 - $212.73 | 224 |
| $212.73 - $231.10 | 165 |
| $231.10 - $249.47 | 105 |
| $249.47 - $267.84 | 63 |
| $267.84 - $286.21 | 39 |
| $286.21 - $304.58 | 24 |
| $304.58 - $322.95 | 6 |
| $322.95 - $341.31 | 4 |
| $341.31 - $359.68 | 7 |
| $359.68 - $378.05 | 3 |
| $378.05 - $396.42 | 0 |
| $396.42 - $414.79 | 0 |
| $414.79 - $433.16 | 0 |
| $433.16 - $451.53 | 0 |
| $451.53 - $469.89 | 0 |
| $469.89 - $488.26 | 0 |
| $488.26 - $506.63 | 1 |