Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $217.64 |
| 5Y Range | 128.92 – 203.25 |
| 5Y Selected | 166.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.95% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $74.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.62% |
| 10Y Range | 141.87 – 216.51 |
| 10Y Selected | 179.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.95% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $80.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.91% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9640 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8162 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1794 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5056 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4058 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7649 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1679 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8283 |
| Safety Score | 0.4505 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.72% | 5.53% | 5.34% | 5.15% | 4.95% | 4.76% | 4.57% | 4.38% | 4.19% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,046.49 | 3,214.89 | 3,386.45 | 3,560.71 | 3,737.13 | 3,915.16 | 4,094.19 | 4,273.59 | 4,452.70 | 4,630.80 |
| EBITDA | 2,018.36 | 2,129.92 | 2,243.59 | 2,359.03 | 2,475.92 | 2,593.86 | 2,712.48 | 2,831.33 | 2,949.99 | 3,067.99 |
| D&A | -381.36 | -402.44 | -423.92 | -445.73 | -467.82 | -490.10 | -512.51 | -534.97 | -557.39 | -579.69 |
| EBIT | 1,636.99 | 1,727.48 | 1,819.67 | 1,913.30 | 2,008.10 | 2,103.76 | 2,199.96 | 2,296.36 | 2,392.60 | 2,488.31 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -363.71 | -383.81 | -404.29 | -425.10 | -446.16 | -467.41 | -488.79 | -510.21 | -531.59 | -552.85 |
| NOPAT | 1,273.29 | 1,343.67 | 1,415.37 | 1,488.20 | 1,561.94 | 1,636.35 | 1,711.17 | 1,786.16 | 1,861.01 | 1,935.45 |
| Capital Expenditures | -282.56 | -298.18 | -314.09 | -330.26 | -346.62 | -363.13 | -379.74 | -396.38 | -412.99 | -429.51 |
| NWC Investment | 9.25 | 9.45 | 9.63 | 9.78 | 9.90 | 9.99 | 10.05 | 10.07 | 10.05 | 10.00 |
| (+) D&A | 381.36 | 402.44 | 423.92 | 445.73 | 467.82 | 490.10 | 512.51 | 534.97 | 557.39 | 579.69 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,381.34 | 1,457.38 | 1,534.83 | 1,613.46 | 1,693.04 | 1,773.31 | 1,854.00 | 1,934.82 | 2,015.47 | 2,095.63 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 | 140,703,118.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,369.36 | 1,401.38 | 1,352.78 | 1,302.36 | 1,252.63 | 1,202.60 | 1,152.47 | 1,102.42 | 1,052.60 | 1,003.20 | Raw: 25,916.88 18,358.12 |
Raw: 32,079.69 14,702.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 25,036.62 | 26,894.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,839.43 | 2,839.43 |
| Equity Value | 22,197.20 | 24,054.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 140.70 | 140.70 |
| Fair Value | $157.76 | $170.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.95% | 54.95% |
| Buy Price | $71.07 | $77.02 |
| Current Price | $217.64 | $217.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.34% | -64.61% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,368.11 | 1,395.64 | 1,335.00 | 1,273.45 | 1,213.70 | 1,154.65 | 1,096.47 | 1,039.31 | 983.34 | 928.67 | Raw: 21,066.78 14,393.01 |
Raw: 26,076.27 11,012.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,978.91 | 22,801.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,839.43 | 2,839.43 |
| Equity Value | 18,139.48 | 19,961.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 140.70 | 140.70 |
| Fair Value | $128.92 | $141.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.95% | 54.95% |
| Buy Price | $58.08 | $63.91 |
| Current Price | $217.64 | $217.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.31% | -70.63% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,370.62 | 1,407.20 | 1,370.96 | 1,332.19 | 1,293.18 | 1,253.02 | 1,211.90 | 1,169.98 | 1,127.45 | 1,084.47 | Raw: 33,570.56 24,662.70 |
Raw: 41,553.35 20,682.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,436.86 | 33,303.33 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,839.43 | 2,839.43 |
| Equity Value | 28,597.43 | 30,463.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 140.70 | 140.70 |
| Fair Value | $203.25 | $216.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.95% | 54.95% |
| Buy Price | $91.56 | $97.54 |
| Current Price | $217.64 | $217.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.93% | -55.18% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,007.17 | 21,163.48 | 55,936.49 | 147,843.85 | 390,761.11 | 1,032,807.55 | 2,729,778.95 | 7,214,987.04 | 19,069,689.86 | 50,402,456.64 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.80 | 2.12 | 5.59 | 14.78 | 39.08 | 103.28 | 272.98 | 721.50 | 1,906.97 | 5,040.25 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.74 | 1.71 | 4.14 | 10.03 | 24.29 | 58.85 | 142.57 | 345.39 | 836.75 | 2,027.16 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $149.34 | 9.31% | $81.86 | -45.19% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $109.04 | 3.99% | $60.82 | -44.23% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $96.00 | 1.22% | $36.49 | -61.99% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $81.17 | 2.76% | $29.13 | -64.12% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $76.88 | 5.31% | $38.95 | -49.34% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $64.05 | 10.07% | $39.46 | -38.39% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $65.72 | 12.39% | $48.16 | -26.72% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $50.97 | 9.44% | $45.33 | -11.06% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $40.13 | 7.85% | $34.66 | -13.64% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $34.08 | 8.09% | $31.29 | -8.18% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $30.28 | 8.77% | $33.15 | 9.46% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $27.22 | 12.41% | $26.83 | -1.43% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $27.22 | 13.04% | $31.98 | 17.47% |
| $111.02 - $121.66 | 10 |
| $121.66 - $132.30 | 40 |
| $132.30 - $142.94 | 81 |
| $142.94 - $153.58 | 143 |
| $153.58 - $164.22 | 166 |
| $164.22 - $174.86 | 146 |
| $174.86 - $185.50 | 131 |
| $185.50 - $196.14 | 92 |
| $196.14 - $206.78 | 69 |
| $206.78 - $217.42 | 46 |
| $217.42 - $228.06 | 28 |
| $228.06 - $238.70 | 14 |
| $238.70 - $249.34 | 16 |
| $249.34 - $259.98 | 5 |
| $259.98 - $270.62 | 5 |
| $270.62 - $281.26 | 4 |
| $281.26 - $291.90 | 3 |
| $291.90 - $302.54 | 0 |
| $302.54 - $313.18 | 0 |
| $313.18 - $323.82 | 1 |