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Vontier Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$37.67
5Y Range41.39 – 67.84
5Y Selected54.61
(-) Safety Margin78.00%
5Y Buy Price$12.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-68.10%
10Y Range45.41 – 71.58
10Y Selected58.49
(-) Safety Margin78.00%
10Y Buy Price$12.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-65.84%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3272
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8251
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.3711
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2935
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5830
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7302
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4997
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0005
Safety Score0.2200

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth4.16%4.15%4.13%4.11%4.09%4.07%4.05%4.04%4.02%4.00%
Revenue3,103.053,231.693,365.093,503.373,646.703,795.223,949.114,108.514,273.604,444.55
EBITDA778.03810.29843.73878.40914.34951.58990.161,030.131,071.521,114.39
D&A-102.26-106.49-110.89-115.45-120.17-125.07-130.14-135.39-140.83-146.46
EBIT675.77703.79732.84762.96794.17826.52860.03894.74930.70967.92
Pro forma Taxes-165.50-172.36-179.47-186.85-194.49-202.42-210.62-219.13-227.93-237.05
NOPAT510.28531.43553.37576.11599.68624.10649.40675.62702.77730.88
Capital Expenditures-61.14-63.68-66.31-69.03-71.86-74.78-77.82-80.96-84.21-87.58
NWC Investment-9.21-9.55-9.91-10.27-10.64-11.03-11.43-11.84-12.26-12.70
(+) D&A102.26106.49110.89115.45120.17125.07130.14135.39140.83146.46
Free Cash Flow542.17564.69588.04612.25637.34663.35690.30718.21747.12777.06
Diluted Shares Outstanding149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00149,050,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/26/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/13/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.41%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF537.47542.99518.29494.20471.55449.86429.10409.22390.19371.99
Raw: 9,763.29
6,915.79
Raw: 11,903.63
5,455.58

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,480.2910,070.44
(-) Net Debt1,782.001,782.00
Equity Value7,698.298,288.44
(/) Shares Out149.05149.05
Fair Value$51.65$55.61
(-) Safety Margin78.00%78.00%
Buy Price$11.36$12.23
Current Price$37.67$37.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.84%-67.52%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.91%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF536.98540.77511.48483.23456.90431.92408.24385.80364.52344.35
Raw: 7,935.22
5,421.41
Raw: 9,674.80
4,086.00

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,950.768,550.18
(-) Net Debt1,782.001,782.00
Equity Value6,168.766,768.18
(/) Shares Out149.05149.05
Fair Value$41.39$45.41
(-) Safety Margin78.00%78.00%
Buy Price$9.11$9.99
Current Price$37.67$37.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-75.83%-73.48%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.91%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF537.97545.25525.26505.52486.82468.72451.22434.30417.94402.12
Raw: 12,648.99
9,292.61
Raw: 15,421.93
7,675.96

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value11,893.4212,451.07
(-) Net Debt1,782.001,782.00
Equity Value10,111.4210,669.07
(/) Shares Out149.05149.05
Fair Value$67.84$71.58
(-) Safety Margin78.00%78.00%
Buy Price$14.92$15.75
Current Price$37.67$37.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-60.38%-58.20%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$37.67
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH126.88%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue6,906.0015,668.3235,548.2680,651.85182,982.82415,151.22941,894.602,136,969.354,848,353.5710,999,938.89
Constant Implied Growth126.88%126.88%126.88%126.88%126.88%126.88%126.88%126.88%126.88%126.88%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.691.573.558.0718.3041.5294.19213.70484.841,099.99
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.641.262.635.4711.3723.6549.19102.30212.74442.41

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$34.005.08%$56.0964.96%
20182018-12-31$34.005.96%$42.4424.83%
20172017-12-31$34.005.23%$32.07-5.69%
20162016-12-31$34.003.58%$37.4110.02%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$57.77
Median
$55.43
10th Percentile
$45.46
90th Percentile
$73.10

Fair Value Distribution

$35.47 - $41.01
19
$41.01 - $46.54
113
$46.54 - $52.08
226
$52.08 - $57.61
226
$57.61 - $63.15
152
$63.15 - $68.69
107
$68.69 - $74.22
73
$74.22 - $79.76
41
$79.76 - $85.29
18
$85.29 - $90.83
10
$90.83 - $96.37
6
$96.37 - $101.90
5
$101.90 - $107.44
0
$107.44 - $112.97
0
$112.97 - $118.51
1
$118.51 - $124.05
2
$124.05 - $129.58
0
$129.58 - $135.12
0
$135.12 - $140.66
0
$140.66 - $146.19
1