Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $99.34 |
| 5Y Range | 53.00 – 82.14 |
| 5Y Selected | 67.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.83% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.08% |
| 10Y Range | 56.97 – 85.55 |
| 10Y Selected | 71.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.83% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $25.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.77% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9652 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9652 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3188 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3188 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9465 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9465 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3340 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3340 |
| Safety Score | 0.3517 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.60% | 3.64% | 3.69% | 3.73% | 3.78% | 3.82% | 3.87% | 3.91% | 3.96% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 5,379.75 | 5,575.63 | 5,781.14 | 5,996.82 | 6,223.24 | 6,461.00 | 6,710.74 | 6,973.15 | 7,248.94 | 7,538.90 |
| EBITDA | 1,329.15 | 1,377.54 | 1,428.32 | 1,481.61 | 1,537.55 | 1,596.29 | 1,657.99 | 1,722.82 | 1,790.96 | 1,862.60 |
| D&A | -105.00 | -108.82 | -112.83 | -117.04 | -121.46 | -126.10 | -130.98 | -136.10 | -141.48 | -147.14 |
| EBIT | 1,224.15 | 1,268.72 | 1,315.48 | 1,364.56 | 1,416.08 | 1,470.18 | 1,527.01 | 1,586.72 | 1,649.48 | 1,715.46 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -275.27 | -285.29 | -295.81 | -306.85 | -318.43 | -330.60 | -343.38 | -356.80 | -370.91 | -385.75 |
| NOPAT | 948.88 | 983.43 | 1,019.67 | 1,057.72 | 1,097.65 | 1,139.59 | 1,183.64 | 1,229.92 | 1,278.57 | 1,329.71 |
| Capital Expenditures | -51.94 | -53.83 | -55.82 | -57.90 | -60.09 | -62.38 | -64.79 | -67.33 | -69.99 | -72.79 |
| NWC Investment | -3.78 | -3.97 | -4.16 | -4.37 | -4.59 | -4.82 | -5.06 | -5.32 | -5.59 | -5.88 |
| (+) D&A | 105.00 | 108.82 | 112.83 | 117.04 | 121.46 | 126.10 | 130.98 | 136.10 | 141.48 | 147.14 |
| Free Cash Flow | 998.15 | 1,034.45 | 1,072.53 | 1,112.49 | 1,154.44 | 1,198.49 | 1,244.76 | 1,293.38 | 1,344.47 | 1,398.18 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 | 250,225,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/3/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/16/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 989.50 | 993.83 | 944.49 | 897.98 | 854.13 | 812.78 | 773.76 | 736.93 | 702.16 | 669.32 | Raw: 17,884.03 12,668.09 |
Raw: 21,660.00 9,927.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,348.01 | 18,301.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,266.75 | 1,266.75 |
| Equity Value | 16,081.26 | 17,035.18 |
| (/) Shares Out | 250.23 | 250.23 |
| Fair Value | $64.27 | $68.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.83% | 64.83% |
| Buy Price | $22.60 | $23.94 |
| Current Price | $99.34 | $99.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.25% | -75.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 988.59 | 989.67 | 931.99 | 878.05 | 827.59 | 780.37 | 736.16 | 694.75 | 655.96 | 619.60 | Raw: 14,507.33 9,911.54 |
Raw: 17,570.36 7,420.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,527.42 | 15,523.28 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,266.75 | 1,266.75 |
| Equity Value | 13,260.67 | 14,256.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 250.23 | 250.23 |
| Fair Value | $53.00 | $56.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.83% | 64.83% |
| Buy Price | $18.64 | $20.04 |
| Current Price | $99.34 | $99.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.24% | -79.83% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 990.41 | 998.05 | 957.27 | 918.55 | 881.78 | 846.85 | 813.66 | 782.10 | 752.09 | 723.55 | Raw: 23,241.05 17,074.10 |
Raw: 28,148.08 14,010.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,820.16 | 22,674.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,266.75 | 1,266.75 |
| Equity Value | 20,553.41 | 21,407.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 250.23 | 250.23 |
| Fair Value | $82.14 | $85.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.83% | 64.83% |
| Buy Price | $28.89 | $30.09 |
| Current Price | $99.34 | $99.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.92% | -69.71% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 13,236.01 | 32,133.51 | 78,011.63 | 189,391.51 | 459,792.29 | 1,116,253.55 | 2,709,967.12 | 6,579,080.32 | 15,972,259.45 | 38,776,403.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% | 142.77% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.32 | 3.21 | 7.80 | 18.94 | 45.98 | 111.63 | 271.00 | 657.91 | 1,597.23 | 3,877.64 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.23 | 2.59 | 5.77 | 12.84 | 28.58 | 63.60 | 141.53 | 314.95 | 700.84 | 1,559.57 |
| $45.25 - $49.30 | 10 |
| $49.30 - $53.34 | 34 |
| $53.34 - $57.39 | 69 |
| $57.39 - $61.44 | 120 |
| $61.44 - $65.48 | 144 |
| $65.48 - $69.53 | 146 |
| $69.53 - $73.58 | 128 |
| $73.58 - $77.62 | 117 |
| $77.62 - $81.67 | 84 |
| $81.67 - $85.72 | 50 |
| $85.72 - $89.76 | 27 |
| $89.76 - $93.81 | 25 |
| $93.81 - $97.86 | 17 |
| $97.86 - $101.90 | 11 |
| $101.90 - $105.95 | 6 |
| $105.95 - $110.00 | 4 |
| $110.00 - $114.04 | 1 |
| $114.04 - $118.09 | 4 |
| $118.09 - $122.14 | 2 |
| $122.14 - $126.18 | 1 |