Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $21.37 |
| 5Y Range | 67.75 – 153.04 |
| 5Y Selected | 110.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.81% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $24.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 16.34% |
| 10Y Range | 67.80 – 146.36 |
| 10Y Selected | 107.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.81% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $24.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 12.84% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4753 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5550 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9154 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1128 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8351 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3762 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4752 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5421 |
| Safety Score | 0.2252 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.03% | 0.47% | 0.91% | 1.35% | 1.79% | 2.23% | 2.68% | 3.12% | 3.56% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,171.93 | 2,182.11 | 2,201.97 | 2,231.73 | 2,271.74 | 2,322.50 | 2,384.64 | 2,458.98 | 2,546.48 | 2,648.34 |
| EBITDA | 440.88 | 442.94 | 446.97 | 453.01 | 461.14 | 471.44 | 484.05 | 499.14 | 516.90 | 537.58 |
| D&A | -145.15 | -145.83 | -147.16 | -149.15 | -151.82 | -155.21 | -159.37 | -164.33 | -170.18 | -176.99 |
| EBIT | 295.73 | 297.11 | 299.82 | 303.87 | 309.32 | 316.23 | 324.69 | 334.81 | 346.72 | 360.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -67.46 | -67.78 | -68.39 | -69.32 | -70.56 | -72.14 | -74.07 | -76.38 | -79.09 | -82.26 |
| NOPAT | 228.27 | 229.33 | 231.42 | 234.55 | 238.75 | 244.09 | 250.62 | 258.43 | 267.63 | 278.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -105.43 | -105.92 | -106.89 | -108.33 | -110.27 | -112.74 | -115.75 | -119.36 | -123.61 | -128.55 |
| NWC Investment | -0.14 | -2.44 | -4.76 | -7.13 | -9.59 | -12.17 | -14.90 | -17.82 | -20.98 | -24.42 |
| (+) D&A | 145.15 | 145.83 | 147.16 | 149.15 | 151.82 | 155.21 | 159.37 | 164.33 | 170.18 | 176.99 |
| Free Cash Flow | 267.85 | 266.80 | 266.93 | 268.23 | 270.71 | 274.39 | 279.33 | 285.58 | 293.22 | 302.35 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 | 79,056,705.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 266.18 | 259.41 | 243.81 | 230.01 | 218.08 | 207.66 | 198.59 | 190.74 | 183.98 | 178.22 | Raw: 7,732.71 6,037.79 |
Raw: 8,636.47 4,934.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,255.27 | 7,110.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | -68.38 | -68.38 |
| Equity Value | 7,323.66 | 7,179.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 79.06 | 79.06 |
| Fair Value | $92.64 | $90.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.81% | 80.81% |
| Buy Price | $17.78 | $17.43 |
| Current Price | $21.37 | $21.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -16.81% | -18.45% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 265.93 | 258.32 | 240.53 | 224.78 | 211.14 | 199.18 | 188.71 | 179.56 | 171.58 | 164.66 | Raw: 5,432.06 4,087.24 |
Raw: 6,066.93 3,187.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,287.93 | 5,291.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | -68.38 | -68.38 |
| Equity Value | 5,356.31 | 5,360.30 |
| (/) Shares Out | 79.06 | 79.06 |
| Fair Value | $67.75 | $67.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.81% | 80.81% |
| Buy Price | $13.00 | $13.01 |
| Current Price | $21.37 | $21.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.16% | -39.11% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 266.43 | 260.51 | 247.17 | 235.42 | 225.32 | 216.59 | 209.10 | 202.73 | 197.40 | 193.03 | Raw: 13,319.25 10,795.89 |
Raw: 14,875.92 9,248.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,030.73 | 11,502.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | -68.38 | -68.38 |
| Equity Value | 12,099.11 | 11,570.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 79.06 | 79.06 |
| Fair Value | $153.04 | $146.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.81% | 80.81% |
| Buy Price | $29.37 | $28.09 |
| Current Price | $21.37 | $21.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 37.43% | 31.43% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,973.57 | 7,446.57 | 13,955.05 | 26,152.09 | 49,009.63 | 91,845.19 | 172,120.05 | 322,557.00 | 604,479.38 | 1,132,808.52 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.40 | 0.74 | 1.40 | 2.62 | 4.90 | 9.18 | 17.21 | 32.26 | 60.45 | 113.28 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.38 | 0.64 | 1.12 | 1.98 | 3.48 | 6.13 | 10.80 | 19.01 | 33.47 | 58.93 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $16.72 | 2.68% | $23.07 | 38.00% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $18.22 | -1.54% | $17.29 | -5.12% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $18.25 | -3.59% | $-0.79 | -104.33% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $22.04 | -0.51% | $21.95 | -0.40% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $38.03 | 3.24% | $26.13 | -31.28% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $37.86 | 1.35% | $21.01 | -44.52% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $28.82 | 1.93% | $5.21 | -81.92% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $39.38 | 5.92% | $31.44 | -20.15% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $19.51 | 14.80% | $37.61 | 92.77% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $16.47 | 14.93% | $35.54 | 115.78% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $15.30 | 11.97% | $43.11 | 181.77% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $8.14 | 11.44% | $-71.27 | -975.53% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $13.25 | 8.41% | $9.30 | -29.85% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $13.83 | 14.96% | $20.25 | 46.40% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $14.64 | 17.09% | $-1.16 | -107.94% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $14.64 | 14.94% | $9.97 | -31.92% |
| $48.92 - $92.96 | 539 |
| $92.96 - $136.99 | 338 |
| $136.99 - $181.03 | 73 |
| $181.03 - $225.07 | 26 |
| $225.07 - $269.10 | 5 |
| $269.10 - $313.14 | 8 |
| $313.14 - $357.18 | 6 |
| $357.18 - $401.21 | 3 |
| $401.21 - $445.25 | 0 |
| $445.25 - $489.29 | 0 |
| $489.29 - $533.32 | 0 |
| $533.32 - $577.36 | 0 |
| $577.36 - $621.40 | 0 |
| $621.40 - $665.44 | 0 |
| $665.44 - $709.47 | 0 |
| $709.47 - $753.51 | 0 |
| $753.51 - $797.55 | 0 |
| $797.55 - $841.58 | 1 |
| $841.58 - $885.62 | 0 |
| $885.62 - $929.66 | 1 |