Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $9.60 |
| 5Y Range | 1.57 – 3.80 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.03% |
| 10Y Range | 1.66 – 3.69 |
| 10Y Selected | 2.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.05% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1152 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1852 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0545 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0629 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1513 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0529 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0038 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1348 |
| Safety Score | 0.1419 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -4.69% | -3.73% | -2.76% | -1.80% | -0.83% | 0.14% | 1.10% | 2.07% | 3.03% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 40.59 | 39.08 | 38.00 | 37.31 | 37.01 | 37.06 | 37.46 | 38.24 | 39.40 | 40.98 |
| EBITDA | 30.29 | 29.16 | 28.35 | 27.84 | 27.61 | 27.65 | 27.96 | 28.53 | 29.40 | 30.58 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 30.29 | 29.16 | 28.35 | 27.84 | 27.61 | 27.65 | 27.96 | 28.53 | 29.40 | 30.58 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -6.17 | -5.94 | -5.77 | -5.67 | -5.62 | -5.63 | -5.69 | -5.81 | -5.99 | -6.23 |
| NOPAT | 24.12 | 23.22 | 22.58 | 22.18 | 21.99 | 22.02 | 22.26 | 22.72 | 23.41 | 24.35 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 24.19 | 23.27 | 22.62 | 22.20 | 22.00 | 22.02 | 22.25 | 22.70 | 23.38 | 24.30 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 | 55,348,084.75 |
| Metric | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 2/28/25 | 3/1/26 | 3/1/27 | 2/29/28 | 3/1/29 | 3/1/30 | 3/1/31 | 2/29/32 | 3/1/33 | 3/1/34 |
| Period End | 2/28/26 | 2/28/27 | 2/28/28 | 2/28/29 | 2/28/30 | 2/28/31 | 2/28/32 | 2/28/33 | 2/28/34 | 2/28/35 |
| Mid-Point | 8/29/25 | 8/30/26 | 8/30/27 | 8/29/28 | 8/30/29 | 8/30/30 | 8/30/31 | 8/29/32 | 8/30/33 | 8/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.62 | 1.62 | 2.62 | 3.62 | 4.62 | 5.62 | 6.62 | 7.62 | 8.62 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23.98 | 22.05 | 19.64 | 17.67 | 16.05 | 14.73 | 13.64 | 12.75 | 12.04 | 11.47 | Raw: 320.63 223.98 |
Raw: 354.12 160.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 323.36 | 324.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | 187.79 | 187.79 |
| Equity Value | 135.57 | 136.28 |
| (/) Shares Out | 55.35 | 55.35 |
| Fair Value | $2.45 | $2.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $0.35 | $0.35 |
| Current Price | $9.60 | $9.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.38% | -96.36% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 23.95 | 21.92 | 19.35 | 17.25 | 15.53 | 14.12 | 12.96 | 12.01 | 11.23 | 10.60 | Raw: 262.79 176.80 |
Raw: 290.24 120.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 274.81 | 279.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | 187.79 | 187.79 |
| Equity Value | 87.02 | 91.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 55.35 | 55.35 |
| Fair Value | $1.57 | $1.66 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $0.22 | $0.24 |
| Current Price | $9.60 | $9.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.68% | -97.55% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 24.00 | 22.17 | 19.94 | 18.10 | 16.60 | 15.37 | 14.36 | 13.56 | 12.91 | 12.42 | Raw: 409.99 297.47 |
Raw: 452.81 222.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 398.28 | 392.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | 187.79 | 187.79 |
| Equity Value | 210.49 | 204.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 55.35 | 55.35 |
| Fair Value | $3.80 | $3.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.81% | 85.81% |
| Buy Price | $0.54 | $0.52 |
| Current Price | $9.60 | $9.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.38% | -94.55% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 198.91 | 512.99 | 1,323.00 | 3,411.99 | 8,799.45 | 22,693.61 | 58,526.36 | 150,938.27 | 389,266.71 | 1,003,910.86 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% | 157.90% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.88 | 2.27 | 5.85 | 15.09 | 38.93 | 100.39 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 1.39 | 3.29 | 7.77 | 18.38 | 43.44 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016-02-28 | $13.02 | -35.84% | $-6.71 | -151.55% |
| 2015 | 2015-02-28 | $12.74 | 9.45% | $-1.80 | -114.10% |
| 2014 | 2014-02-28 | $12.21 | -2.34% | $5.58 | -54.30% |
| 2013 | 2013-02-28 | $14.32 | -0.81% | $4.56 | -68.18% |
| $0.81 - $1.11 | 11 |
| $1.11 - $1.41 | 43 |
| $1.41 - $1.70 | 84 |
| $1.70 - $2.00 | 118 |
| $2.00 - $2.30 | 145 |
| $2.30 - $2.60 | 172 |
| $2.60 - $2.89 | 142 |
| $2.89 - $3.19 | 86 |
| $3.19 - $3.49 | 72 |
| $3.49 - $3.78 | 42 |
| $3.78 - $4.08 | 32 |
| $4.08 - $4.38 | 18 |
| $4.38 - $4.67 | 10 |
| $4.67 - $4.97 | 6 |
| $4.97 - $5.27 | 6 |
| $5.27 - $5.56 | 5 |
| $5.56 - $5.86 | 6 |
| $5.86 - $6.16 | 1 |
| $6.16 - $6.46 | 0 |
| $6.46 - $6.75 | 1 |