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Visteon Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$101.98
5Y Range36.90 – 50.47
5Y Selected43.69
(-) Safety Margin85.43%
5Y Buy Price$6.37
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.76%
10Y Range41.11 – 55.87
10Y Selected48.49
(-) Safety Margin85.43%
10Y Buy Price$7.06
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.07%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8242
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.2582
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6767
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1800
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9784
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1768
FCF R2 (5Y)0.7212
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1141
Safety Score0.1457

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.97%7.53%7.09%6.65%6.21%5.76%5.32%4.88%4.44%4.00%
Revenue4,174.154,488.444,806.605,126.105,444.225,758.076,064.616,360.706,643.196,908.92
EBITDA207.65223.29239.12255.01270.84286.45301.70316.43330.48343.70
D&A-135.50-145.70-156.03-166.40-176.73-186.91-196.87-206.48-215.65-224.27
EBIT72.1577.5983.0988.6194.1199.53104.83109.95114.83119.43
Pro forma Taxes-1.94-2.08-2.23-2.38-2.52-2.67-2.81-2.95-3.08-3.20
NOPAT70.2275.5180.8686.2391.5896.86102.02107.00111.75116.22
Capital Expenditures-147.87-159.01-170.28-181.60-192.87-203.99-214.85-225.34-235.34-244.76
NWC Investment-9.11-9.30-9.41-9.45-9.41-9.28-9.07-8.76-8.35-7.86
(+) D&A135.50145.70156.03166.40176.73186.91196.87206.48215.65224.27
Free Cash Flow48.7352.9057.2061.5866.0370.5174.9779.3883.7087.88
Diluted Shares Outstanding27,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.0027,725,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.13%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF48.3150.8250.3749.7148.8647.8246.6045.2343.7142.07
Raw: 967.72
685.48
Raw: 1,287.88
590.25

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value933.541,063.75
(-) Net Debt-237.25-237.25
Equity Value1,170.791,301.00
(/) Shares Out27.7327.73
Fair Value$42.23$46.93
(-) Safety Margin85.43%85.43%
Buy Price$6.15$6.84
Current Price$101.98$101.98
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.97%-93.30%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.63%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF48.2650.6149.7048.6147.3445.9144.3442.6440.8438.94
Raw: 792.42
541.39
Raw: 1,054.58
445.39

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value785.91902.58
(-) Net Debt-237.25-237.25
Equity Value1,023.161,139.83
(/) Shares Out27.7327.73
Fair Value$36.90$41.11
(-) Safety Margin85.43%85.43%
Buy Price$5.38$5.99
Current Price$101.98$101.98
Upside (to Buy Price)-94.73%-94.13%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.63%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF48.3551.0451.0550.8550.4449.8249.0148.0046.8245.48
Raw: 1,239.18
910.37
Raw: 1,649.15
820.83

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1,162.091,311.69
(-) Net Debt-237.25-237.25
Equity Value1,399.341,548.94
(/) Shares Out27.7327.73
Fair Value$50.47$55.87
(-) Safety Margin85.43%85.43%
Buy Price$7.35$8.14
Current Price$101.98$101.98
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.79%-92.02%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$101.98
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH99.58%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,502.1714,972.7429,882.4359,639.01119,026.86237,552.45474,104.47946,212.281,888,439.663,768,926.30
Constant Implied Growth99.58%99.58%99.58%99.58%99.58%99.58%99.58%99.58%99.58%99.58%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.751.502.995.9611.9023.7647.4194.62188.84376.89
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.701.212.214.047.4013.5424.7645.3082.86151.58

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$86.5912.10%$33.63-61.16%
20182018-12-31$60.289.71%$61.562.12%
20172017-12-31$125.145.01%$79.83-36.21%
20162016-12-31$80.34-1.13%$32.57-59.46%
20152015-12-31$114.500.73%$110.90-3.15%
20142014-12-31$106.867.37%$-28.78-126.93%
20132013-12-31$81.89-7.05%$28.33-65.40%
20122012-12-31$53.82-14.00%$6.32-88.25%
20112011-12-31$49.94-13.85%$-10.86-121.74%
20102010-12-31$74.25-12.00%$0.38-99.49%
20092009-12-31$49.5017.02%$3.25-93.43%
20082008-12-31$49.5027.74%$-158.62-420.45%
20072007-12-31$49.5022.48%$-32.64-165.95%
20062006-12-31$49.5011.05%$-26.42-153.38%
20052005-12-31$49.50-10.62%$-21.24-142.91%
20042004-12-31$49.50-21.17%$-28.06-156.68%
20032003-12-31$49.50-18.42%$-32.99-166.64%
20022002-12-31$49.50-15.10%$21.81-55.94%
20012001-12-31$49.50-10.85%$-28.54-157.65%
20002000-12-31$49.500.03%$-157.52-418.21%
19991999-12-31$49.500.49%$186.37276.50%
19981998-12-31$49.50-0.91%$54.049.17%
19971997-12-31$49.500.64%$58.8318.86%
19961996-12-31$49.501.23%$0.00-100.00%
19951995-12-31$49.504.49%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$47.89
Median
$47.02
10th Percentile
$41.02
90th Percentile
$56.51

Fair Value Distribution

$36.69 - $39.90
59
$39.90 - $43.11
181
$43.11 - $46.32
211
$46.32 - $49.53
199
$49.53 - $52.74
154
$52.74 - $55.95
87
$55.95 - $59.16
62
$59.16 - $62.37
26
$62.37 - $65.58
11
$65.58 - $68.79
6
$68.79 - $72.00
0
$72.00 - $75.21
1
$75.21 - $78.42
2
$78.42 - $81.64
0
$81.64 - $84.85
0
$84.85 - $88.06
0
$88.06 - $91.27
0
$91.27 - $94.48
0
$94.48 - $97.69
0
$97.69 - $100.90
1