| Current Price | $101.98 |
| 5Y Range | 36.90 – 50.47 |
| 5Y Selected | 43.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $6.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.76% |
| 10Y Range | 41.11 – 55.87 |
| 10Y Selected | 48.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $7.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.07% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8242 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2582 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6767 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1800 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9784 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1768 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7212 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1141 |
| Safety Score | 0.1457 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.97% | 7.53% | 7.09% | 6.65% | 6.21% | 5.76% | 5.32% | 4.88% | 4.44% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,174.15 | 4,488.44 | 4,806.60 | 5,126.10 | 5,444.22 | 5,758.07 | 6,064.61 | 6,360.70 | 6,643.19 | 6,908.92 |
| EBITDA | 207.65 | 223.29 | 239.12 | 255.01 | 270.84 | 286.45 | 301.70 | 316.43 | 330.48 | 343.70 |
| D&A | -135.50 | -145.70 | -156.03 | -166.40 | -176.73 | -186.91 | -196.87 | -206.48 | -215.65 | -224.27 |
| EBIT | 72.15 | 77.59 | 83.09 | 88.61 | 94.11 | 99.53 | 104.83 | 109.95 | 114.83 | 119.43 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1.94 | -2.08 | -2.23 | -2.38 | -2.52 | -2.67 | -2.81 | -2.95 | -3.08 | -3.20 |
| NOPAT | 70.22 | 75.51 | 80.86 | 86.23 | 91.58 | 96.86 | 102.02 | 107.00 | 111.75 | 116.22 |
| Capital Expenditures | -147.87 | -159.01 | -170.28 | -181.60 | -192.87 | -203.99 | -214.85 | -225.34 | -235.34 | -244.76 |
| NWC Investment | -9.11 | -9.30 | -9.41 | -9.45 | -9.41 | -9.28 | -9.07 | -8.76 | -8.35 | -7.86 |
| (+) D&A | 135.50 | 145.70 | 156.03 | 166.40 | 176.73 | 186.91 | 196.87 | 206.48 | 215.65 | 224.27 |
| Free Cash Flow | 48.73 | 52.90 | 57.20 | 61.58 | 66.03 | 70.51 | 74.97 | 79.38 | 83.70 | 87.88 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 | 27,725,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 48.31 | 50.82 | 50.37 | 49.71 | 48.86 | 47.82 | 46.60 | 45.23 | 43.71 | 42.07 | Raw: 967.72 685.48 |
Raw: 1,287.88 590.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 933.54 | 1,063.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | -237.25 | -237.25 |
| Equity Value | 1,170.79 | 1,301.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 27.73 | 27.73 |
| Fair Value | $42.23 | $46.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% | 85.43% |
| Buy Price | $6.15 | $6.84 |
| Current Price | $101.98 | $101.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.97% | -93.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 48.26 | 50.61 | 49.70 | 48.61 | 47.34 | 45.91 | 44.34 | 42.64 | 40.84 | 38.94 | Raw: 792.42 541.39 |
Raw: 1,054.58 445.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 785.91 | 902.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | -237.25 | -237.25 |
| Equity Value | 1,023.16 | 1,139.83 |
| (/) Shares Out | 27.73 | 27.73 |
| Fair Value | $36.90 | $41.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% | 85.43% |
| Buy Price | $5.38 | $5.99 |
| Current Price | $101.98 | $101.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.73% | -94.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 48.35 | 51.04 | 51.05 | 50.85 | 50.44 | 49.82 | 49.01 | 48.00 | 46.82 | 45.48 | Raw: 1,239.18 910.37 |
Raw: 1,649.15 820.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,162.09 | 1,311.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | -237.25 | -237.25 |
| Equity Value | 1,399.34 | 1,548.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 27.73 | 27.73 |
| Fair Value | $50.47 | $55.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.43% | 85.43% |
| Buy Price | $7.35 | $8.14 |
| Current Price | $101.98 | $101.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.79% | -92.02% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,502.17 | 14,972.74 | 29,882.43 | 59,639.01 | 119,026.86 | 237,552.45 | 474,104.47 | 946,212.28 | 1,888,439.66 | 3,768,926.30 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% | 99.58% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.75 | 1.50 | 2.99 | 5.96 | 11.90 | 23.76 | 47.41 | 94.62 | 188.84 | 376.89 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.70 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 4.04 | 7.40 | 13.54 | 24.76 | 45.30 | 82.86 | 151.58 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $86.59 | 12.10% | $33.63 | -61.16% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $60.28 | 9.71% | $61.56 | 2.12% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $125.14 | 5.01% | $79.83 | -36.21% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $80.34 | -1.13% | $32.57 | -59.46% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $114.50 | 0.73% | $110.90 | -3.15% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $106.86 | 7.37% | $-28.78 | -126.93% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $81.89 | -7.05% | $28.33 | -65.40% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $53.82 | -14.00% | $6.32 | -88.25% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $49.94 | -13.85% | $-10.86 | -121.74% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $74.25 | -12.00% | $0.38 | -99.49% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $49.50 | 17.02% | $3.25 | -93.43% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $49.50 | 27.74% | $-158.62 | -420.45% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $49.50 | 22.48% | $-32.64 | -165.95% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $49.50 | 11.05% | $-26.42 | -153.38% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $49.50 | -10.62% | $-21.24 | -142.91% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $49.50 | -21.17% | $-28.06 | -156.68% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $49.50 | -18.42% | $-32.99 | -166.64% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $49.50 | -15.10% | $21.81 | -55.94% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $49.50 | -10.85% | $-28.54 | -157.65% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $49.50 | 0.03% | $-157.52 | -418.21% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $49.50 | 0.49% | $186.37 | 276.50% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $49.50 | -0.91% | $54.04 | 9.17% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $49.50 | 0.64% | $58.83 | 18.86% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $49.50 | 1.23% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $49.50 | 4.49% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $36.69 - $39.90 | 59 |
| $39.90 - $43.11 | 181 |
| $43.11 - $46.32 | 211 |
| $46.32 - $49.53 | 199 |
| $49.53 - $52.74 | 154 |
| $52.74 - $55.95 | 87 |
| $55.95 - $59.16 | 62 |
| $59.16 - $62.37 | 26 |
| $62.37 - $65.58 | 11 |
| $65.58 - $68.79 | 6 |
| $68.79 - $72.00 | 0 |
| $72.00 - $75.21 | 1 |
| $75.21 - $78.42 | 2 |
| $78.42 - $81.64 | 0 |
| $81.64 - $84.85 | 0 |
| $84.85 - $88.06 | 0 |
| $88.06 - $91.27 | 0 |
| $91.27 - $94.48 | 0 |
| $94.48 - $97.69 | 0 |
| $97.69 - $100.90 | 1 |