Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $345.11 |
| 5Y Range | 207.63 – 321.21 |
| 5Y Selected | 264.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 18.99% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $214.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -37.93% |
| 10Y Range | 235.47 – 356.12 |
| 10Y Selected | 295.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 18.99% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $239.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.57% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9925 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9499 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9559 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9544 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9615 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9581 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8206 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9065 |
| Safety Score | 0.8101 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.77% | 11.80% | 10.82% | 9.85% | 8.87% | 7.90% | 6.92% | 5.95% | 4.97% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 45,109.96 | 50,432.89 | 55,892.20 | 61,397.55 | 66,846.54 | 72,127.38 | 77,122.18 | 81,710.93 | 85,776.04 | 89,207.08 |
| EBITDA | 32,700.21 | 36,558.80 | 40,516.26 | 44,507.08 | 48,457.06 | 52,285.14 | 55,905.87 | 59,232.25 | 62,179.05 | 64,666.21 |
| D&A | -1,375.78 | -1,538.12 | -1,704.62 | -1,872.53 | -2,038.71 | -2,199.77 | -2,352.10 | -2,492.05 | -2,616.03 | -2,720.67 |
| EBIT | 31,324.43 | 35,020.68 | 38,811.64 | 42,634.55 | 46,418.34 | 50,085.37 | 53,553.76 | 56,740.20 | 59,563.02 | 61,945.54 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -6,521.26 | -7,290.76 | -8,079.98 | -8,875.85 | -9,663.58 | -10,426.99 | -11,149.06 | -11,812.43 | -12,400.09 | -12,896.10 |
| NOPAT | 24,803.17 | 27,729.92 | 30,731.66 | 33,758.70 | 36,754.77 | 39,658.38 | 42,404.70 | 44,927.77 | 47,162.92 | 49,049.44 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,541.27 | -1,723.14 | -1,909.67 | -2,097.77 | -2,283.94 | -2,464.37 | -2,635.03 | -2,791.81 | -2,930.71 | -3,047.94 |
| NWC Investment | 1,144.18 | 1,191.86 | 1,222.40 | 1,232.71 | 1,220.09 | 1,182.44 | 1,118.39 | 1,027.47 | 910.22 | 768.25 |
| (+) D&A | 1,375.78 | 1,538.12 | 1,704.62 | 1,872.53 | 2,038.71 | 2,199.77 | 2,352.10 | 2,492.05 | 2,616.03 | 2,720.67 |
| Free Cash Flow | 25,781.86 | 28,736.76 | 31,749.02 | 34,766.17 | 37,729.63 | 40,576.21 | 43,240.17 | 45,655.49 | 47,758.47 | 49,490.43 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 | 2,022,750,000.00 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/31/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 25,336.74 | 25,863.04 | 26,191.19 | 26,288.45 | 26,150.13 | 25,777.81 | 25,179.38 | 24,368.79 | 23,365.47 | 22,193.64 | Raw: 583,770.58 387,369.23 |
Raw: 765,739.24 328,760.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 517,198.78 | 579,475.33 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,330.75 | 8,330.75 |
| Equity Value | 508,868.03 | 571,144.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,022.75 | 2,022.75 |
| Fair Value | $251.57 | $282.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 18.99% | 18.99% |
| Buy Price | $203.80 | $228.74 |
| Current Price | $345.11 | $345.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -40.95% | -33.72% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 25,290.55 | 25,579.07 | 25,668.34 | 25,529.65 | 25,164.66 | 24,581.06 | 23,792.34 | 22,817.25 | 21,679.10 | 20,404.82 | Raw: 473,649.29 301,075.75 |
Raw: 621,291.76 244,127.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 428,308.02 | 484,634.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,330.75 | 8,330.75 |
| Equity Value | 419,977.27 | 476,303.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,022.75 | 2,022.75 |
| Fair Value | $207.63 | $235.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 18.99% | 18.99% |
| Buy Price | $168.20 | $190.76 |
| Current Price | $345.11 | $345.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.26% | -44.73% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 25,383.45 | 26,152.82 | 26,729.65 | 27,077.10 | 27,183.80 | 27,044.66 | 26,661.20 | 26,041.60 | 25,200.40 | 24,157.98 | Raw: 758,377.63 525,538.26 |
Raw: 994,773.52 467,040.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 658,065.08 | 728,673.38 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,330.75 | 8,330.75 |
| Equity Value | 649,734.33 | 720,342.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,022.75 | 2,022.75 |
| Fair Value | $321.21 | $356.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 18.99% | 18.99% |
| Buy Price | $260.21 | $288.49 |
| Current Price | $345.11 | $345.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -24.60% | -16.41% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 110,541.99 | 305,488.30 | 844,232.13 | 2,333,077.55 | 6,447,576.01 | 17,818,197.42 | 49,241,475.99 | 136,081,271.35 | 376,067,370.87 | 1,039,280,909.32 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% | 176.35% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 11.05 | 30.55 | 84.42 | 233.31 | 644.76 | 1,781.82 | 4,924.15 | 13,608.13 | 37,606.74 | 103,928.09 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 10.40 | 25.20 | 63.84 | 161.70 | 409.61 | 1,037.58 | 2,628.28 | 6,657.67 | 16,864.48 | 42,719.24 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $199.97 | 14.53% | $122.14 | -38.92% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $172.01 | 14.27% | $147.07 | -14.50% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $150.79 | 10.96% | $125.03 | -17.08% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $105.24 | 8.74% | $77.19 | -26.66% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $82.70 | 8.06% | $40.81 | -50.65% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $69.66 | 12.34% | $65.62 | -5.80% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $53.34 | 16.06% | $79.16 | 48.40% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $47.78 | 15.34% | $28.97 | -39.37% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $34.18 | 13.53% | $38.83 | 13.59% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $21.43 | 15.78% | $31.85 | 48.62% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $18.56 | 18.76% | $25.13 | 35.42% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $17.28 | 19.75% | $4.41 | -74.48% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $15.35 | 16.32% | $3.12 | -79.67% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $14.13 | 8.19% | $2.77 | -80.38% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $14.13 | 15.44% | $4.62 | -67.28% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $14.13 | 21.89% | $4.88 | -65.44% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $14.13 | 25.25% | $4.48 | -68.29% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $14.13 | 23.74% | $-0.03 | -100.20% |
| $186.25 - $208.85 | 19 |
| $208.85 - $231.46 | 67 |
| $231.46 - $254.06 | 139 |
| $254.06 - $276.67 | 204 |
| $276.67 - $299.27 | 207 |
| $299.27 - $321.88 | 135 |
| $321.88 - $344.48 | 98 |
| $344.48 - $367.09 | 58 |
| $367.09 - $389.69 | 25 |
| $389.69 - $412.30 | 19 |
| $412.30 - $434.90 | 13 |
| $434.90 - $457.51 | 9 |
| $457.51 - $480.11 | 0 |
| $480.11 - $502.72 | 0 |
| $502.72 - $525.32 | 1 |
| $525.32 - $547.93 | 2 |
| $547.93 - $570.53 | 1 |
| $570.53 - $593.14 | 1 |
| $593.14 - $615.74 | 1 |
| $615.74 - $638.35 | 1 |