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Univanich Palm Oil Public Company Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$12.60
5Y Range41.80 – 106.31
5Y Selected74.06
(-) Safety Margin68.47%
5Y Buy Price$26.04
Upside (to Buy Price)106.66%
10Y Range59.91 – 152.39
10Y Selected106.15
(-) Safety Margin68.47%
10Y Buy Price$37.32
Upside (to Buy Price)196.20%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3698
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7094
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5355
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5781
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5244
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6731
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1231
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4419
Safety Score0.3516

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth25.02%22.69%20.35%18.02%15.68%13.34%11.01%8.67%6.34%4.00%
Revenue16,943.3320,787.4025,018.0229,525.2334,154.7538,712.3342,973.7646,700.4249,659.3551,645.73
EBITDA2,126.232,608.633,139.533,705.144,286.104,858.045,392.815,860.476,231.796,481.06
D&A-382.01-468.68-564.07-665.69-770.07-872.83-968.91-1,052.93-1,119.65-1,164.43
EBIT1,744.222,139.942,575.463,039.453,516.033,985.214,423.904,807.545,112.145,316.63
Pro forma Taxes-309.51-379.73-457.01-539.34-623.91-707.16-785.01-853.08-907.13-943.42
NOPAT1,434.711,760.222,118.452,500.112,892.133,278.053,638.893,954.464,205.014,373.21
Capital Expenditures-562.80-690.48-831.01-980.72-1,134.50-1,285.88-1,427.43-1,551.22-1,649.50-1,715.48
NWC Investment-329.48-373.47-411.02-437.90-449.78-442.79-414.02-362.06-287.47-192.99
(+) D&A382.01468.68564.07665.69770.07872.83968.911,052.931,119.651,164.43
Free Cash Flow924.451,164.951,440.491,747.192,077.922,422.202,766.353,094.113,387.683,629.17
Diluted Shares Outstanding946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50946,717,348.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.31%Terminal Growth: 2.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF918.821,132.631,317.431,503.111,681.571,843.881,980.912,084.152,146.502,163.08
Raw: 63,582.23
49,904.57
Raw: 111,049.02
64,194.33

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value56,458.1280,966.40
(-) Net Debt-33.76-33.76
Equity Value56,491.8781,000.15
(/) Shares Out946.72946.72
Fair Value$59.67$85.56
(-) Safety Margin68.47%68.47%
Buy Price$18.81$26.98
Current Price$12.60$12.60
Upside (to Buy Price)49.32%114.10%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.31%Terminal Growth: 2.44%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF917.961,127.761,299.541,468.881,627.971,768.471,882.191,961.832,001.691,998.35
Raw: 43,761.75
33,097.65
Raw: 76,431.71
40,627.74

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value39,539.7656,682.39
(-) Net Debt-33.76-33.76
Equity Value39,573.5156,716.15
(/) Shares Out946.72946.72
Fair Value$41.80$59.91
(-) Safety Margin68.47%68.47%
Buy Price$13.18$18.89
Current Price$12.60$12.60
Upside (to Buy Price)4.60%49.91%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.31%Terminal Growth: 3.44%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.65
PV UFCF919.691,137.561,335.731,538.461,737.471,923.272,085.822,215.362,303.302,343.13
Raw: 115,297.94
93,946.42
Raw: 201,372.65
126,695.03

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value100,615.34144,234.83
(-) Net Debt-33.76-33.76
Equity Value100,649.09144,268.58
(/) Shares Out946.72946.72
Fair Value$106.31$152.39
(-) Safety Margin68.47%68.47%
Buy Price$33.52$48.05
Current Price$12.60$12.60
Upside (to Buy Price)166.04%281.33%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$12.60
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH87.40%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue27,766.1652,034.4497,513.75182,743.06342,464.78641,787.031,202,723.932,253,932.844,223,922.967,915,730.63
Constant Implied Growth87.40%87.40%87.40%87.40%87.40%87.40%87.40%87.40%87.40%87.40%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.785.209.7518.2734.2564.18120.27225.39422.39791.57
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF2.664.487.8913.9124.5243.2376.21134.34236.82417.47

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$5.3518.45%$7.4338.81%
20182018-12-31$5.2034.38%$22.11325.28%
20172017-12-31$8.2533.19%$-2.46-129.78%
20162016-12-31$7.6013.96%$6.48-14.75%
20152015-12-31$7.705.68%$5.24-31.93%
20142014-12-31$10.606.35%$15.9550.47%
20132013-12-31$10.204.08%$14.4041.16%
20122012-12-31$9.52-3.01%$11.3018.67%
20112011-12-31$8.35-13.60%$10.4725.37%
20102010-12-31$9.00-14.40%$5.84-35.11%
20092009-12-31$8.282.54%$6.44-22.22%
20082008-12-31$6.1511.20%$41.27571.09%
20072007-12-31$5.405.30%$5.9610.30%
20062006-12-31$3.306.27%$8.53158.58%
20052005-12-31$2.956.93%$4.3848.31%
20042004-12-31$3.0021.31%$7.32143.96%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$98.79
Median
$86.49
10th Percentile
$58.73
90th Percentile
$142.35

Fair Value Distribution

$19.71 - $49.43
17
$49.43 - $79.15
373
$79.15 - $108.87
334
$108.87 - $138.59
163
$138.59 - $168.31
48
$168.31 - $198.03
26
$198.03 - $227.75
14
$227.75 - $257.47
7
$257.47 - $287.19
2
$287.19 - $316.91
4
$316.91 - $346.63
3
$346.63 - $376.35
3
$376.35 - $406.07
3
$406.07 - $435.79
0
$435.79 - $465.51
0
$465.51 - $495.23
2
$495.23 - $524.95
0
$524.95 - $554.67
0
$554.67 - $584.40
0
$584.40 - $614.12
1