Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $818.68 |
| 5Y Range | 362.25 – 663.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 512.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.45% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $192.58 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.48% |
| 10Y Range | 460.00 – 794.09 |
| 10Y Selected | 627.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.45% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $235.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.24% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9799 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9188 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9461 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8049 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9691 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9006 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5418 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0332 |
| Safety Score | 0.3755 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 14.39% | 13.24% | 12.08% | 10.93% | 9.77% | 8.62% | 7.46% | 6.31% | 5.15% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 17,553.62 | 19,877.43 | 22,279.33 | 24,714.18 | 27,129.73 | 29,468.09 | 31,667.69 | 33,665.79 | 35,401.20 | 36,817.24 |
| EBITDA | 7,767.69 | 8,796.01 | 9,858.87 | 10,936.33 | 12,005.24 | 13,039.99 | 14,013.34 | 14,897.52 | 15,665.46 | 16,292.08 |
| D&A | -3,587.52 | -4,062.44 | -4,553.33 | -5,050.95 | -5,544.63 | -6,022.53 | -6,472.08 | -6,880.44 | -7,235.11 | -7,524.51 |
| EBIT | 4,180.18 | 4,733.56 | 5,305.54 | 5,885.37 | 6,460.61 | 7,017.46 | 7,541.26 | 8,017.09 | 8,430.35 | 8,767.57 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -947.94 | -1,073.43 | -1,203.14 | -1,334.63 | -1,465.08 | -1,591.35 | -1,710.14 | -1,818.04 | -1,911.76 | -1,988.23 |
| NOPAT | 3,232.23 | 3,660.13 | 4,102.40 | 4,550.74 | 4,995.53 | 5,426.10 | 5,831.13 | 6,199.05 | 6,518.59 | 6,779.34 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4,748.44 | -5,377.05 | -6,026.79 | -6,685.44 | -7,338.88 | -7,971.43 | -8,566.44 | -9,106.95 | -9,576.39 | -9,959.45 |
| NWC Investment | -61.37 | -64.58 | -66.75 | -67.66 | -67.12 | -64.98 | -61.12 | -55.52 | -48.22 | -39.35 |
| (+) D&A | 3,587.52 | 4,062.44 | 4,553.33 | 5,050.95 | 5,544.63 | 6,022.53 | 6,472.08 | 6,880.44 | 7,235.11 | 7,524.51 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,009.94 | 2,280.94 | 2,562.19 | 2,848.59 | 3,134.16 | 3,412.23 | 3,675.63 | 3,917.01 | 4,129.08 | 4,305.05 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 | 65,210,749.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,992.51 | 2,191.39 | 2,256.31 | 2,299.33 | 2,318.86 | 2,314.06 | 2,284.82 | 2,231.81 | 2,156.46 | 2,060.86 | Raw: 48,372.24 34,264.29 |
Raw: 66,443.66 30,451.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 45,322.69 | 52,558.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,097.50 | 14,097.50 |
| Equity Value | 31,225.19 | 38,460.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.21 | 65.21 |
| Fair Value | $478.83 | $589.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.45% | 62.45% |
| Buy Price | $179.80 | $221.47 |
| Current Price | $818.68 | $818.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.04% | -72.95% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,990.69 | 2,182.21 | 2,226.46 | 2,248.29 | 2,246.80 | 2,221.78 | 2,173.79 | 2,104.07 | 2,014.56 | 1,907.76 | Raw: 39,264.36 26,825.75 |
Raw: 53,933.15 22,777.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 37,720.20 | 44,094.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,097.50 | 14,097.50 |
| Equity Value | 23,622.70 | 29,996.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.21 | 65.21 |
| Fair Value | $362.25 | $460.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.45% | 62.45% |
| Buy Price | $136.03 | $172.73 |
| Current Price | $818.68 | $818.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.38% | -78.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,994.35 | 2,200.69 | 2,286.85 | 2,352.01 | 2,393.93 | 2,411.08 | 2,402.64 | 2,368.60 | 2,309.80 | 2,227.82 | Raw: 62,797.46 46,134.33 |
Raw: 86,258.01 42,933.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 57,362.15 | 65,880.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,097.50 | 14,097.50 |
| Equity Value | 43,264.65 | 51,783.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.21 | 65.21 |
| Fair Value | $663.46 | $794.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.45% | 62.45% |
| Buy Price | $249.13 | $298.18 |
| Current Price | $818.68 | $818.68 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.57% | -63.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 38,318.00 | 91,847.21 | 220,155.25 | 527,706.12 | 1,264,897.13 | 3,031,923.84 | 7,267,438.53 | 17,419,851.44 | 41,754,907.58 | 100,085,371.74 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.83 | 9.18 | 22.02 | 52.77 | 126.49 | 303.19 | 726.74 | 1,741.99 | 4,175.49 | 10,008.54 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.56 | 7.41 | 16.29 | 35.79 | 78.63 | 172.75 | 379.55 | 833.90 | 1,832.15 | 4,025.38 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $166.77 | 18.01% | $124.22 | -25.52% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $102.53 | 14.36% | $46.11 | -55.03% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $171.91 | 11.56% | $-8.09 | -104.71% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $105.58 | 12.59% | $95.25 | -9.79% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $72.54 | 15.81% | $26.51 | -63.46% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $102.01 | 17.52% | $-87.40 | -185.67% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $77.95 | 12.74% | $-111.71 | -243.31% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $45.52 | 9.09% | $-261.19 | -673.78% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $29.55 | 7.15% | $-114.97 | -489.08% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $22.75 | 9.12% | $-16.35 | -171.85% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.81 | 11.43% | $3.45 | -64.84% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $9.12 | 8.96% | $-25.96 | -384.69% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $18.36 | 3.21% | $-42.83 | -333.28% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $25.43 | 0.78% | $-43.99 | -272.99% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $23.39 | 0.19% | $-65.11 | -378.38% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $18.90 | 2.35% | $-32.74 | -273.23% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $19.26 | 5.69% | $-128.09 | -765.03% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $10.76 | 1.42% | $-32.47 | -401.72% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $22.70 | 2.23% | $12.14 | -46.51% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $13.44 | -1.59% | $-125.68 | -1,035.11% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $17.13 | -5.27% | $-265.32 | -1,648.86% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $33.13 | 1.50% | $-319.28 | -1,063.71% |
| $337.99 - $391.56 | 12 |
| $391.56 - $445.14 | 47 |
| $445.14 - $498.72 | 124 |
| $498.72 - $552.29 | 178 |
| $552.29 - $605.87 | 163 |
| $605.87 - $659.44 | 167 |
| $659.44 - $713.02 | 110 |
| $713.02 - $766.60 | 69 |
| $766.60 - $820.17 | 51 |
| $820.17 - $873.75 | 31 |
| $873.75 - $927.32 | 21 |
| $927.32 - $980.90 | 9 |
| $980.90 - $1,034.47 | 5 |
| $1,034.47 - $1,088.05 | 2 |
| $1,088.05 - $1,141.63 | 7 |
| $1,141.63 - $1,195.20 | 1 |
| $1,195.20 - $1,248.78 | 0 |
| $1,248.78 - $1,302.35 | 0 |
| $1,302.35 - $1,355.93 | 2 |
| $1,355.93 - $1,409.51 | 1 |